PipHut.com

2-9-10

5:24a GMT – We had a PipHut record for number of comments yesterday at well over 300 (and I’m pretty sure Tommy cemented himself as Top PipHutter of the month only 9 days into February – see top 10 on the right nav). PipHut itself had over 7000+ views yesterday alone – imagine how many comments there would be if everyone participated. Probably too many!

From a signal standpoint our bearish bias yesterday yielded good pips yesterday if you were willing to be a bit more aggressive – I had resistance at 1.3680 (and drawn in at 1.3715 on the chart) and we had a few nice long wicks just touching that 1.3715 resistance and closing near 1.3680 (10:00 gmt) that gave a good shorting signal. First target was hit before the pair bounced back up and then dropped back down to the first target once again for another 30-40 pips.

Daily Outlook: Since then the pair has climbed in the early morning hours kicking a long wick at 1.3715 (which I shorted with a single lot). Looking at the hourlies we can see the pair has been in a bearish consolidation wedge for the past few days which bodes well for the short positions. The risk at this point is, of course, a larger correction perhaps up to the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and resistance at 1.3850. While they would certainly offer an appealing area to short I’m looking for a more short-term drop.

Trading Idea: I took a very small position on last hour’s challenge of 1.3715 with the long wick. I will look to add to that position with a break of the bottom rising trend support (currently at 1.3660). From 1.3715 short targets are 1.3680, 1.3650, 1.3615 and 1.3585. If we see a larger correction the next resistance area to look for shorts at is 1.3750.

(click to enlarge)

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2-8-10

5:55a GMT – A solid week of pips last week as we continued to sell the EURUSD every day of the week into a strong downtrend. In all the pair dropped a couple hundred pips and over 500 pips on the weeks high/low. That makes it nearly 1000 pips the pair has dropped in the past 4 weeks! A quick glance at the weekly chart will show you how strong this downtrend is.

Daily Outlook: Technically nothing jumps out at me signaling that the downtrend is weakening – we have a solid downtrend resistance capping last week’s action and a long series of lower lows and lower highs. All of these are signs of a strong downtrend. Some traders might feel hesitant looking at various indicators showing oversold but remember that oscillators are not useful in a strong trending environment like we have now. In light of this strong trend I will continue to sell into rallies, looking at fibonacci retracments at 1.3680 and 1.3750 initially.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell near resistance levels (1.3680 and 1.3750). Targets from 1.3750 are 1.3720, 1.3680, 1.3645 and 1.3600.

As a reminder to everyone forex is a risky business – never risk more than you can afford to lose.

(click to enlarge)

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2-5-10

2:14a GMT – Yesterday’s secondary trade (sell a break of 1.4830) played out well as the pair dropped steadily and hit both targets for 125 pips. It’s been a great week of signals/trading altogether as the bearish drops have been have been fairly easy and consistent to sell. The pair has now dropped almost 1000 pips in the past couple weeks – R.I.P to those traders trying to pick bottoms all the way down ;).

Daily Outlook: Still bearish as once again we had a significant bearish break to the downside though I will continue to be more conservative going into the weekend as Friday’s can produce bigger whipsaws and I don’t like to hold trades open over the weekend as anything can happen. Therefore I will look for shorts in the area of the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of Feb 3 – Feb 4 high/low. We also have a falling trend resistance in that area giving further weight to the area.

Trading Idea: Conservative trade is in the 1.3900 area with targets at 1.3860, 1.3830 1.3790 and 1.3760. If this wasn’t friday I would probably take a less conservative approach and look to sell at 1.3850 resistance area – which I still could if there is enough time left in the trading day and the signal is strong enough. If we see any consolidation during the day a secondary trade would be to sell the consolidation support break.

(click to enlarge)

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