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Recap: Finally, Friday is here! I took 40 pips off the sustained break of 1.3700 rising trend support yesterday. The ’sustained’ break was exactly the opposite of the ‘false’ break we had on Wednesday: with false break the pair did not close above resistance on 30 and 60m timeframes. Yesterday, however,  it did close below support on 30 and 60m timeframes, signaling the entry. I then took a long at the second rising trend support around 1.3650 which rallied briefly but then closed out at break even. I had drawn that possiblity in with the arrows on yesterday’s chart but didn’t type it out in the trading ideas, sorry to any who missed it :/.

Daily Outlook: Since its Friday (probably the worst day of the week to trade, at least for me) I will not be trading, but I still wanted to offer my analysis and a trading idea or two for any brave souls out there. First lets take a look at the daily chart (top right, click to make it bigger). You can see we’ve had a very strong downtrend since early December – it’s dropped over 1600 pips! Currently though we are in a bullish correction pattern (channel in between the blue lines, red support trend is possible support). This is why I check the daily analysis as part of my trade plan every day: 1) to see if there were any obvious candlestick patterns that might give an indication to the next day’s direction and 2) to look at the overall pattern. All those little red lines in there are horizontal support/resistance lines on the 1-hour charts – they don’t seem as sturdy on the daily charts do they?

More to the point for today is that we are just hovering around that bottom rising trend support line right now. Which gives us to clear trades: a long on confirmation signal if price fails to break 1.3590 again or a short if we have a sustained break below 1.3585 (I look for a close on the 1h or 4h charts).

Trading Idea: Long on another failure of 1.3590 with targets at 1.3620, 1.3650, 1.3690. Short on a sustained break of 1.3580 with targets at 1.3555, 1.3530 and 1.3505. Reminder – I’m not trading as its Friday and I’m looking forward to a three-day weekend ;). Happy pipping!

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Recap: Welcome back for another day PipHutters! I made some good pips yesterday off the false breakout above 1.3800. For those of you who are curious what I was looking for in the “false breakout”: 1) first off 1.38 was strong resistance so I was looking in the first place (if the s/r is not strong I don’t bother looking regardless of the other signals), 2) pair failed to close above 1.3800 on the 30m and 1h and 3) there was a shooting star on the 1h and bearish candle wicks on the 30m.

Daily Outlook: All and all the bears were able to win the day, dropping the pair about 90 pips from high to low and about 20 pips on open to close. We’re currently approaching interday rising trend support and a 61.8 fibonacci retracement as we speak, an area that I will look for a potential buying zone. A sustained break below would probably lead to a challenge of longer term rising trend support and is another area I will look for longs.

Trading Idea: More conservative trade is long from rising trend support at 1.3650. Preferred targets from 1.3655 are 1.3690, 1.3720 and 1.3750. More aggressive trade is long from 1.3700 rising trend support with targets at 1.3725, 1.3750, 1.3775 and 1.3800.

Happy pipping ;)

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