Archive For "May, 2008"

5-30-08

00:38a GMT – USD/JPY pair is consolidating above former resisance (now support) at 105.40. Hourlies are overbought but I am looking for this support to hold.

Trading Idea: Above 105.30 look for 105.8 and 106.3. If support is broken look for 105.00 and 104.50

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5-29-08

9:08a GMT – UK housing data came in five times worse than expected and was the cause of the rise in USD across major pairs as traders feared that the a global recession could be closer at hand. If more bad data continues, especially in light of hawkish comments by the Fed on inflation expect the dollar to retain the gains. In the short term look for oversold and overbought currencies to rebound, especially those that are in support/resistance channels.

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5-28-08

6:52a GMT – GBP/USD is testing trend support (over the past couple of trading days) and I expect the general uptrend to continue. GBP got oversold and should recover.

Trading Idea: Look for bullish candlestick to confirm the trade and then enter long with targets at 1.9790 and 1.9825. If support is broken look for further losses with targets at 1.9730 and 1.9700.

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5-28-08

GMT – GBP/JPY is approaching trend support (over the past three days) currently around 205.35

Trading Idea: Look for bullish candlestick to confirm trade, then go long with targets at 205.8 and 206.1. If trend support is broken look for targets at 205.00 and 204.80.

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5-28-08

6:28a GMT – A bullish doji is forming on the USD/JPY pair near former resistance trend line (now support).

Trading Idea: If the candlestick closes as a doji on the 60M charts (30 minutes left) I will buy 2 lots, one with a 20 pip target, the other with a 40 pip target and move to break even on the first limit.

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5-27-08

00:57a GMT – EU is approaching strong multi-day trend channel support currently around 1.5675. Despite fundamentals I expect a bounce off this for at least 30-50 pips.

Trading Idea: wait for bullish candlestick close to confirm the trade then enter long. First target is around 1.5700 and then 1.5725. If no bullish candlestick close occurs or support is broken then look for 1.5630 and 1.5560

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5-27-08

23:05 GMT – AUD/USD is touching the 60M trend support line that has been tested several times over past weeks. Fundamentals regarding oil decreasing and stocks rallying give pause but I expect support will hold

Trading Idea: wait for bullish candlestick close to confirm the trade then look for .962 and .964 as targets.

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5-27-08

GMT – Oil prices declined for the first time in over a week today leading to a rise in US Stocks. If oil prices continue to retreat it could give the Fed breathing room concerning inflation and give them more reason to not lower interest rates. If oil continues to decline and US stocks continue to rally it would give the dollar a bullish position for more gains.

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5-27-08

9:27a GMT – Time for the *weekly* performance review. I missed some stragglers from last week so I’ve included them in this review. I’ve tried to go through each trade and give a hindsight analysis but in some it still just lists the result with no insight as to why the trade succeeded or failed. Feel free to comment at the bottom of any post if you have questions or insight.

Also, note that there are two categories: free forex signals and technical analysis. The free forex signals are the posts where I give you exact entries, limits and stops. The technical analysis are usually market orders I place after seeing the candlestick entry confirming the directional bias of the pair. The technical analysis trades take a bit more skill to use as it depends on you as the trader to spot the best entry and exit points.

This week the technical analysis killed the free forex signals (though both were profitable) to the tune of 405 pips to 40 pips. Happy pipping! Trade by trade below:

Free Forex Signals: +40 pips
5/20/08 – Profiting off the Euro rise 0 pips
5/21/08 – EUR/USD – Flagpole trade 0 pips
5/21/08 – EUR/USD – Flagpole Breakout 0 pips
5/22/08 – EUR/USD – Breakout trade -50 pips
5/22/08 – USD/JPY Flagpole Trade 0 pips
5/22/08 – AUD/USD Flagpole Trade 0 pips
5/15/08 – NZD/USD Breakout Trade + 65 pips
5/14/08 – USD/CHF Breakout Trade +25 pips

Technical Analysis: +405 pips
5/20/08 – AUD/USD consolidating, more USD losses +20 pips
5/20/08 – Sharp USD/CAD decline expected +30 pips
5/20/08 – USD/JPY looking for sharp rise +35 pips
5/20/08 – NZD/USD Bounce off resistance -40 pips
5/20/08 – USD/CHF Rise expected after bounce -40 pips
5/20/08 – USD/JPY – more losses +70 pips
5/20/08 – AUD/USD rising channel +70 pips
5/20/08 – GPD/USD Fibonacci Trade +180 pips
5/21/08 – AUD/USD RSI Divergence +60 pips
5/23/08 – USD/JPY Caution Advised +70 pips
5/23/08 – USD/CAD More losses expected -40 pips
5/23/08 – GBP/USD More gains expected +80 pips
5/23/08 – AUD/USD Downside -40 pips
5/23/08 – GBP/JPY Back to the Upside -50 pips

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5-23-08

9:15a GMT – GBP/JPY is looking to bounce of double-strong support of: a) 38.2% fibonacci retracement of 202.8-206.5, and b) strong former resistance and now support at 205.00. See chart below. Fib is light blue and support is dark blue. Also RSI is touching strong channel support as well (green line on RSI chart). Slow SS is also flipping up on 60M.

Trading Idea: I expect pair to dip down to 205 (current price is 205.36) before heading back up. I would wait for a bullish candlestick in this area to confirm the trade and then enter long with targets at 206 and 206.5. If support is broken look for 204.70 (50% Fibonacci) and 204.25 (61.8% Fibonacci).

Result: -50 pips

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