Archive For "June, 2008"

6-28-08

6:28a GMT – Shorts remain my favorites for the USD/CAD pair as it traces down from its 1.03 monthly high to its range bottom. Concerns are a possible bullish divergence in the 4 hour RSI charts.

Trading Idea: In the short to mid-term shorts at 1.0125 should hold for a test of 1.0080 and 1.0025. If resistance is broken at 1.0135 look for test of 1.0190 on the upside.

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6-27-08

15:48 GMT – EUR/USD looks poised to make more gains, though I expect a slight dip to shake off the oversold levels on the houries and make room for another rally.

Trading Idea: Look for support to hold around 1.5675 and enter long on a bullish reversal candlestick. If support is broken with no signal look for channel support around 1.5610 to hold. Targets at 1.5740 and 1.5795.

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6-27-08

5:50a GMT – USD/CHF gave a strong bullish reversal doji candlestick on the 4H charts last period indicating a possible reversal in the USD decline. The signal comes after a 200 pip decline over the day and near support at 1.0225.

Trading Idea: To confirm the trade the next candlestick (ending at 08:00a GMT) needs to close above the previous candlesticks high at 1.0260. More aggressive traders could enter long now but I prefer to wait until the following candlestick confirms the direction change. Look for long targets at 1.0320, 1.0350, and 1.0395.

Stops should be placed below the bottom doji wick (currently at 1.0218) with a little room to breath. Risk is about 40-50 pips with a reward of almost 180 pips.

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6-26-08

6:51a GMT – EUR/USD is bouncing upward off a multiday trend support line despite hawkish comments from the Fed. The ECB’s actions are expected to favor the Euro more than the Fed’s words and we will look for candlestick entry points near support currently at 1.5585.

Trading Idea: Look for a dip and then a bullish reversal candlestick to enter the trade for another test of 1.5800.

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6-24-08

7:14a GMT – Pair has remained in a steady uptrend since mid-March and we look to continue to buy on dips. Caution is advised however as corrections are common with the general USD weakness (though news out of Japan is increasingly bleak as well). Make sure solid candlestick signals are given on at least the 4h charts to enter.

Trading Idea: Pair remains in a tight, short-term consolidation channel that could return it to support at either 106.95 or 106.40. Candlesticks will lets us know where to enter with long targets at 107.25, 107.85 and 108.45.

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6-24-08

7:04a GMT – My bias remains bullish on the GBP/USD pair has continued to make higher lows (though the highs have been a bit lower as well – meaning we may soon see a squeeze play develop on the daily charts). On the 4h charts the pair is approaching the trend support, currently around 1.9580.

Trading Idea: Look for a bullish reversal candlestick to confirm the trade with longs favored above 1.9580 with targets at 1.9635, 1.9695 and 1.9745. If support is broken look for a test of 1.9485 support.

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6-23-08

7:59a GMT – EUR/USD is approaching several different support lines to offer multiple trading opportunities. First is currently around 1.5530 (weekly trend support). Second is at 1.5460. Pair ultimately remains bullish above 1.5284.

Trading Idea: Look for a bullish reversal candlestick to confirm the trade with long targets at 1.5605 and 1.5715.

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6-23-08

7:54a GMT – USD/CAD has failed to break its 1.0300 resistance again leaving the charts open for further losses in the pair. I expect shorter term resistance at 1.0210 to hold.

Trading Idea: Below 1.0210 look for short targets of 1.0155 and 1.0105. If 1.0210 is broken look for a retest of 1.0255 and 1.0300.

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6-19-08

3:41a GMT – The GBP/USD is facing downward pressure from daily, 4h and 60M charts. Closest resistance is at 1.9625, daily resistance is currently around 1.9660 (blue line below) and a daily close above 1.9681 is needed to break the downtrend.

Trading Idea: Will look for a bearish candlestick reversal around any of the resistance areas (preferably the daily) to enter short. Targets are at 1.9600, 1.9575 and 1.9485 and lower.

UPDATE: Pair charged through resistance without giving a bearish reversal candlestick (so no trade was entered, right?) as you see on the chart below. A doji did form about 4 hours ago though after only a 2 candlestick rise. We will wait to see the close of the next 4h candle for direction though pair appears to have hit resistance below 1.9800.

RESULT: 0 pips

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6-18-08

17:29 GMT – USD/CHF has been bouncing off support currently around 1.0370 for days now and I am looking for another bounce around this area. Ultimately the pair is short term bullish unless it closes below 1.0300, the next strong support.

Trading Idea: Look for a bullish reversal candlestick to confirm the long trade with targets at 1.0400, 1.0450 and 1.0495. If 1.0370 is broken look for a test of 1.0350 and 1.0300.

UPDATE – Pair did rise over 150 pips in my support area (see chart below). I did not enter any trade, unfortunately, because I did not see a clear bullish reversal candlestick on either the 1H or 4H charts. You gotta follow the system even if it means missing on on trades like this!

Result: +150 pips

Piphut: No trade

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