Archive For "June, 2008"

6-15-08

00:36a GMT – AUD/USD has dropped considerably over the past few weeks and I am looking for more of a drop in the coming week as the pair enters a range between .9315 and .9415. Current resistance is around .9415 and we could see a rise to that before another fall.

Trading Idea: On a bearish reversal candlestick short targets will be .9370, .9345 and .9330. If resistance is broken look for a return to a wider channel top at .9475 or .9500.

UPDATE: No bearish reversal candlestick signal was seen on the H1 or H4 charts so no trade was entered. Good thing too because pair rose over 100 pips.

RESULT: no trade

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6-13-08

1:56a GMT – I expect another bounce in the EUR/USD pair as it heads down to its monthly low of 1.5284. As long as the pair closes above that I will continue to expect a bounce. In the short term I’m looking at support around the 1.5385 area. If I do not see a bullish reversal candlestick in that area I will look for the 1.5284 area.

Trading Idea: Long targets include 1.5450, 1.5570 and possibly 1.5600. If support is broken look for a challenge of 1.5250 and 1.5210.

UPDATE – Pair charged through short term support on the 4H charts with no bullish candlestick reversal. However pair did bounce off of 1.5284 just as the RSI touched 30 and did give a bullish reversal candlestick. Pair has risen for about 50-70 pips after that bounce and we will see where we end up after the weekend.

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Hi PipHut Subscribers!

I hope you’ve gotten in on the last few technical signals as they have netted over 200 pips in the past couple of days! Anyways, I just wanted to let you know that because I am on vacation until Wednesday, June 18th, a lot less signals will be coming out.

You might have noticed already that the past few days have only been 1 or 2 signals which is less than average. Don’t worry! PipHut is not going anywhere! I’ll be back up to full force by Wednesday or Thursday of next week!

Thanks for subscribing PipHut and please feel free to reply with comments, questions etc. Also, I am always looking for new ideas to write articles about, so if you have an idea of something you want to learn about please shoot me an email at admin@piphut.com.

Happy pipping!

Mark

6-12-08

00:33a GMT – EUR/USD just made some gains back on the dollar and is consolidating those gains currently after a horrible day for the US stock market. Look for the pair to complete its consolidation, perhaps dropping a bit to 1.5490 or even 1.5450 support depending on your risk appetite and the candlesticks signals that the pair gives at those levels.

Trading Idea: Long targets above support include 1.5600, 1.5665 and perhaps 1.5745. If support is broken look for more losses to 1.5385 and a challenge of 1.5284.

UPDATE – We had about a 100 pip rise after price action bounced off of support at 1.5400 and a nice bullish reversal doji confirmed the trade. Chart below.

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6-10-08

GMT – GBP/USD is nearing supporting on the 4h charts, currently around 1.9490. Pair has also begun slowing down as it gets closer to the support and approaching oversold on the 60M and 4H charts.

Trading Idea: Look for a bearish candlestick formation to confirm the trade. Long targets are 1.9550, 1.9615 and the 68.2% fibonacci retracement at 1.9675. If no bearish candlestick reversal is given look for strong support (blue line) around 1.9450. If 1.9450 is broken look a test of 1.9400 and 1.9365

Chart: Unfortunately the airport internet connection I am on right now won’t let me upload my charts. I’ll try to upload the chart in 4 hours at the next airport! Happy pipping!

UPDATE – 00:33a GMT, 6/12/08 – Well I hope you got in on this one as the pair rose from my support at 1.9490 to as high as 175 pips above to 1.9665 after bouncing sharply. Updated chart below.

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6-9-08

18:33 GMT – AUD/USD is dropping rapidly towards its support level around .9475. Gold has been dropping today (you can see it as the red line on the chart below) and the high correlation between gold and AU is causing the pair to drop as well. I expect weakness of the USD to keep the pair afloat and to turn the pair around, not too mention a drop in gold usually does not last long. RSI is also well below 30 on the 60M charts.

Trading Idea: long above .9475 with stops below. Targets are .9540, .9590 and .9615 for starters. Below this level look for targets at .9440 and .9410.

UPDATE – Pair bounced and rose about 40 pips before piecing back down (PipHut booked a quick 25 pips off the rise). A hidden divergence has appeared on the 60M RSI which indicates more losses so I would sit this one out for now.

PipHut Result: +25 pips

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SIGNAL CANCELED – Unfortunately our first free forex signal of June is canceled because of the false breakout (pair was fractional pips from catching my entries) and then a break to the downside. We will look for buying on dips. Aggressive traders can leave their entries but I would move them to 105.55, as their is obviously selling interest ahead of 105.50.

6-9-08

4:48 GMT – Hey we finally got a chart setup for a “free forex signal” – the first of June! USD/JPY rose 86 pips after bouncing off of strong daily support currently around 104.50. Pair made a nice flagpole over 4 hours and is currently consolidating between 105.25-105.40. Entry is 10%, or roughly 9 pips above the top of the pole at 105.45 (top of pole is 105.36).

RSI has plenty of room to run (right below 50).

Buy – 105.45
S – 105.20 (25 pips, pair True Range is currently around 22 plus 3 for spread)
L1 – 105.70 (25 pips, equal to risk)
L2 – 105.95 (50 pips, at bottom of 6/5-6/6 consolidation)

5:50a – SIGNAL CANCELED – Unfortunately our first free forex signal of June is canceled because of the false breakout (pair was fractional pips from catching my entries) and then a break to the downside. We will look for buying on dips. Aggressive traders can leave their entries but I would move them to 105.55, as their is obviously selling interest ahead of 105.50.

UPDATE – 17:26 GMT – Well I hope some of took my advice above and moved the trade to 105.55 or even left it alone. I set it up in my demo account to watch the results and both targets were hit for 75 pips gain (if I had been awake I could have trailed it up for another 20 or so). So the result of the signal is 0 pips, but the result of the aggressive trader is 75 pips.

Result: 0 pips

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6-9-08

3:34a GMT – Part of being a successful trader is looking not only your own “comfort” chart time but also looking at the bigger picture as well. This week I chose to post my daily chart analysis for EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY. I do the analysis on all the pairs I trade, and recommend you do the same for the “big picture” but don’t have time to post them all.

Want to see a different pair next week? Post your comments below!

EUR/USD: Since late April the EUR/USD has been trading in a 1.58-1.53 range. If you back out for the year, however, you see that technically speaking the pair has only had a brief retracement on the Euro’s rise. A close below 1.53 would be necessary to open the door for more losses. The fundamentals support the Euro’s rise too with Trichet stating that the ECB may raise rates as soon as the end of the month (talk about a leading indicator). On the daily short, in the short term, we see the two-day rise that Trichet’s comments caused. The pair has yet to break the 1.5820 high necessary to open the door to a 1.59 and 1.60 test. In short, the daily charts are bullish and we will look to buy on dips.

USD/JPY: UJ looks poised for more gains as the pair continues to make higher highs and higher lows as many Elliot Wave theorists were calling for a run done after a possible third wave. On the daily chart the pair has the 10, 20, 30, 50 EMAs lined up in an uptrend and the price action has closed above the 100-day EMA several times in the past weeks. Also pair has just bounced off the trend line support (blue line below) and is again on the rise. A challenge of support at 106.00 looks likely with the break challenging 107.00 We will look to buy on dips.

AUD/USD: Pair gained ground last week for another test of .9640, which remains strong resistance for the pair. Though gold (red line on chart) has been dropping since its March high over 1000, general USD weakness has allowed the Aussie to continue to gain against the greenback. The MACD is just flipping to a buy signal but I will wait for a further dip to the .9500 or .9550 trend line support area for a buying opportunity.

CAD/USD: Pair is returning to the top of its .9830-1.0275 range as oil (red line on chart) continues to soar last week, signaling a possible return to the downside with any positive USD news at all. Oil and the loonie share a high correlation. Would look for selling opportunities around a bearish candlestick reversal signal above 1.0250, especially if oil continues to rise this week, however a bullish hidden divergence on the RSI gives me pause. I’m sitting on the sidelines of this one until a better direction is evident.

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6-9-08

01:06 GMT – Part of being a successful trader is looking not only your own “comfort” chart time but also looking at the bigger picture as well. This week I chose to post my weekly chart analysis for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY. I do the analysis on all the pairs I trade, and recommend you do the same for the “big picture” but don’t have time to post them all.

Want to see a different pair next week? Post your comments below!

EUR/USD: As you can see on the chart below the EUR/USD is still firmly in an uptrend unless a clean break of 1.5284 is made. EMA20 (green line) has been acting as good support for the pair since early 2007 and last week showed us a strong bounce of this support. A close this week above 1.58 would confirm the resumption of the uptrend and is likely. The last time the weekly charts looked as they do now was in late 2007 when the pair was in a 1.43-1.50 range, which ended up breaking to the upside off a bounce of the EMA20 and challenging 1.60. Look for a similar result in the coming weeks with a challenge of 1.70.

USD/JPY: I believe that since 6/07 the UJ pair has been in a good Elliot Wave model drop with the rally below 100 the last hoorah of the 5th leg. Whether we are in the 1st leg or the 3rd leg of the retracement is a matter of debate (what’s not in Forex? ;). Last week’s candlestick was bearish but did make a new high and showed decent buying pressure. I don’t believe the doji means much considering the pair has been in choppy trading for the past several weeks. I expect to see more gains this coming week, but this next week will help to show the direction of the pair. Also the RSI closed above 50 for the first time in almost a year. A concern is definitely the EMA30 which has provided resistance for the pair in the past and also the resistance at 106.35 (former weekly support). A close above 106.50 would clear the way for the EMA50 currently around 108.

The exponential moving averages are still aligned in a downtrend though the EMA10 has flipped up and if the retracement continues will soon cross the EMA20.

USD/CHF: Pair remains locked in a clear downtrend, is getting pushed down by the EMA20 resistance (solid resistance since 7/07) and its RSI has just bounced off of 50 to the downside after posting a bearish hidden divergence a few weeks back. Selling near the EMA20 looks like the best strategy though last week’s candlestick was a bearish engulfing so we may or may not get another opportunity on the weekly chart for awhile.

Major concern is that the pair is in the 2nd retracement leg of a 5-3 Elliot Wave model retracement (since the possible 5 wave drop beginning 7/07), meaning a third retracement to the 1.0750 area could occur before more losses.

GBP/USD: The GU pair continues in its bearish channel since the trend reversal on 11/07. Two weeks ago we had a bearish doji that was NOT confirmed by a bearish close under the previous candlestick. Instead we saw a wave of buying at the end of the week courtesy of the ECB comments about the Euro rate increase. Until we see a close above 2.02, though, the pair remains bearish. From the weekly chart below we can see the best strategy for the week will probably be to sell of channel tops.

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