Archive For "July, 2008"

7-31-08

4:26a GMT – AUD/USD has dropped about 80 pips since my last AUD/USD forex signal, and I think that those losses will continue. Pair is still trapped in an extremely bearish channel (yellow lines below). The biggest threat to the trade is an oversold 60M and 4H RSI and close to it on the daily charts. I would look for something of a bounce to cool off the oversold levels possibly to 0.9475 or even 0.9550 if the US stocks crash tomorrow. If no breaking news comes out a horizontal movement could occur as traders take profit before the weekend.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 0.9550 with targets at 0.9475, 0.9425 and 0.9355.

(click to enlarge)

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7-30-08

3:18a GMT – AUD/USD pair remains bearish on both the daily, 4H and 60M price charts. However there is strong intraday support at 0.9575 that I expect to stall a drop below. 60M RSI is heavily oversold and has just crossed above 30 indicating a bounce and the RSI on the 4H charts is showing a bullish divergence as well. Depending on how strong resistance is above we may see a return immediately to the downside at resistance levels or we might see a tight range develop between 0.9550-0.9475 pending the unemployment news from the US Fed.

Trading Idea: short term I expect a bounce to the yellow trend resistance currently at 0.9535, or to daily resistance at 0.9550. Midterm look for a re-challenge of 0.9475 and, if broken, a test of 0.9425.

(click to enlarge)

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7-30-08

1:44a GMT – EU has touched and bounced off of strong daily and weekly support after yesterdays retreat downward found no buyers willing to support the pair. Support can be found between yellow and purple lines on chart below, currently between 1.5585-1.5525. Pair also just crossed above 30 on the 60M RSI, a buy signal.

Trading Idea: Look for buying opportunities between these support levels as pair looks ready to rebound. I expect the pair to make a full recovery to 1.5900 with targets at 1.5660, 1.5725 and 1.5815 along the way.

(click to enlarge)

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I’ve added a brand new Forex Discussion Group to PipHut to further open up communication between us traders.

The idea behind it is simple – so that you, me and other traders can discuss the various signals and technical analysis that comes out of piphut.com. That is, your thoughts on the signals, results, etc. But don’t that limit you – you can discuss anything forex related.

Feel free to discuss your own trades, your own technical analysis or techniques. Or just chat with fellow traders.

Since this is brand new I’m hoping to get your help with it. Write a few posts. Try and upload some pictures. If you run into any problems just email me at admin@piphut.com and I’ll get it fixed ASAP.

Thanks, and I look forward to chatting with you in the new Forex Discussion Group!

The discussion board by clicking on “Forex Discussion Groups” on the left or by going to:
http://piphut.com/forex-discussion/

Happy Pipping,

Mark

7-29-08

1:43a GMT – The USD/CHF has formed a double-top formation on the 4H and 60M charts (easier to see on the 4H below) with 1.0400 capping possible gains. The double-top formation indicates further losses below the “neckline”.

Trading Idea: Aggressive traders may enter short below 1.0310 whereas more conservative traders might wait until at least 1.0295 to confirm the signal. Short targets at 1.0270, 1.0215 and 1.0160. If top is broken look for more gains and a retest of 1.0435.

(click to enlarge)

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7-28-08

14:51 GMT – The GU pair stayed within the triangular breakout pattern overnight (from my last signal), rising to the of channel resistance (yellow lines below) where it is now. I still expect that signal to hold to hold true as the pattern in the same. In the short term I expect the price action to return to the triangle channel bottom (blue line) currently around 1.9875.

Trading Idea: Short-term shorts preferred below yellow channel trend line below, with targets at 1.9915, 1.9885 and 1.9855.

(click to enlarge)

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7-28-08

1:14a GMT – GBP/USD has been moving slowly downward over the past several weeks (yellow channel lines below), in a larger upward channel over the past few months (blue channel lines below). The downward channel has hit the bottom of the upward channel and has formed a nice triangle pattern (purple lines on chart below) and I believe the the breakout of that triangle will provide us with the direction of the pair to come in the next few weeks. The daily charts show a bearish picture over the past year so that is my inclination for the future, though the shorter term 4H charts (below) show a bullish channel (blue lines).

Trading Idea: look for the pair to breakout of the purple triangle lines below. Pair could go either way. Long targets are 1.9953 and 1.9987 in the mid-term. Short targets are 1.9836 and 1.9765 in the mid-term.

(click to enlarge)

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7-24-08

14:51 GMT – The EUR/USD is approaching a daily support line that also shows up on weekly and monthly charts as it has held since August of 2007 (purple line on chart below). The yellow line directly beneath the purple line (about 50 pips away) is another possible strong daily support line so I consider this the area in between these lines to be a buying zone.

Trading Idea: look for the pair to slow down as it approaches the support (currently between 1.5570 and 1.5500) and look for some candlestick confirmations on the 4H or 60M charts. Longs favored above yellow support line with targets at 1.5660, 1.5725, 1.5815 and 1.5900.

(click to enlarge)

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7-23-08

13:28 GMT – A regular bullish divergence has appeared on the 60M and 4H charts for the EUR/USD pair. Price action has been making lower lows while the RSI has been making higher lows (yellow lines on chart below), signaling a possible reversal back to the upside for the pair. Pair is also deep in oversold territory.

Trading Idea: While divergence is present longs are favored back toward 1.5760.

(click to enlarge)

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7-23-08

3:26a GMT – GBP/USD is approaching intraday support on the 4H and daily charts at the bottom of its bullish channel (blue lines on chart below). We also have possible daily support at 1.9835 and this area of double support might provide a good bounce on the pair. Possible event risk at 6:45a GMT with French Consumer Spending (a weak Euro could support the dollar across the board) and the Bank of England minutes at 8:30a (mention of a drop in interest rates could send the GBP downward).

Trading Idea: long positions favored above channel support currently found at 1.9830 with targets at 1.9890, 1.9925 and 1.9985. Look for candlestick signals to confirm. If support is broken look for a retest of 1.9805 and 1.9760.

(click to enlarge)

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