Archive For "August, 2008"

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August 29, 2008
Technical Analysis ...

8-29-08

5:11a GMT – The EUR/USD has bounced off 1.4600 this week as it eased off of oversold levels and raised up to 1.4800. The pair is heading south again as the US economy raised its GDP outlook and fears rise of a slowdown in the Europe. I expect the pair to stay beneath its 1.4800 resistance in the short term and fall for another shot at 1.4600.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.4800 with a target at 1.4605.

(click to enlarge)

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day trading, EUR/USD, resistance, technical analysis, trading ideas
Technical Analysis
August 27, 2008
Technical Analysis ...

8-27-08

4:26a GMT – USD/CAD has plenty of room to fall on the 4-hour and daily charts, which is backed by a strong downtrend on the weekly and monthly charts. Oil prices have hit monthly lows and a rise in oil prices (which is a leading indicator for the CAD) would indicate a fall in the USD/CAD as the CAD strengthens. Pair is consolidating in a triangular pattern (yellow converging lines on chart below). Support is currently found above 1.0400. Below this level I expect a 100 pip fall to 1.0300 at a minimum.

Trading Idea: shorts favored on a break below 1.0400 with initial targets to 1.0300.

(click to enlarge)

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4 Comments
breakout, day trading, monthly, oil, technical analysis, trading ideas, USD/CAD, weekly
Technical Analysis
August 26, 2008
Technical Analysis ...

8-26-08

4:33a GMT – The USD/JPY has been lifted in the past month on a stronger USD and weak news coming out of Japan. As traders look for further direction with the dollar a decent range trade has emerged between 110 and 108. If you prefer buying with the trend then buying at the lower end of this range would be preferred as the pair has been in a steady uptrend for months.

Trading Idea: look for bullish reversal candlesticks to confirm the trade near 108 and bearish candlestick reversals around 110.

(click to enlarge)

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day trading, range, range trade, technical analysis, trading ideas, USD/JPY
Technical Analysis
August 25, 2008
Technical Analysis ...

8-25-08

4:06a GMT – The GBP/USD continues to look negative technically and fundamentally as another key support level was broken at 1.8525. Fundamentally both the GBP and USD are weak however the USD has been supported by strong buys over the past several weeks and the retreating price of oil. Main risk to the technical trade are the oversold levels (pair just crossed back above the RSI 30 on the 4 hour charts) which have cooled off some from a low of 12.

Trading Idea: shorts favored below 1.8565 with targets down to 1.8205.

(click to enlarge)

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day trading, GBP/USD, oversold, technical analysis, trading ideas
Technical Analysis
August 21, 2008
Technical Analysis ...

8-20-08

3:26a GMT – While daily analysis remains extremely bearish (except that they are heavily oversold) the weekly view offers a different view below. As you can see despite the recent selling of the pair the uptrend remains very much intact and is actually at strong monthly resistance. Yellow trend line below is drawn on the monthly chart if you are wondering why there are some breakthroughs. While my overall bias remains down pending new news out of Europe or the US (after a slight rise to ease oversold levels) this weekly view gives a good amount of reason to pause.

Trading Idea: the best trade here might be no trade until a clear direction is given, however I will be looking for candlestick entry signals near support and resistance levels. On bullish signals I would look for long targets all the way up to 1.5350. On a bearish breakthrough look for short targets down to 1.4475.

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bounce, day trading, EUR/USD, monthly, oversold, resistance, technical analysis, trading ideas, weekly
Technical Analysis
August 19, 2008
Technical Analysis ...

8-19-08

7:05a GMT – Not much has changed in the technical analysis of EUR/USD for the last few days – the pair remains overall bearish with room to run down to 1.4475. The major threat to the trade is that the dailies highly oversold and the market could be primed to consolidate and bounce toward 1.4900 or even 1.5000 on favorable news for the EUR.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell rallies. Looking for candlestick entries on the 4H and 60M and will be looking closely around resistance at 1.4850. Short targets at 1.4700, 1.4650 and eventually I expect a challenge of 1.4475.

(click to enlarge)

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bearish, daily, day trading, EUR/USD, oversold, resistance, RSI, sell rallies, technical analysis, trading ideas
Technical Analysis
August 18, 2008
Technical Analysis ...

8-18-08

3:26a GMT – The GU pair offers perhaps one of the clearest fundamental pictures with the British economy showing clear signs of slowing and signals that their housing market will continue to deteriorate. Technically, as you might expect with those financial events, the GBP/USD is bearish and the pair has fallen over 1500 pips in the past month. The biggest threat to the downtrend is just how incredibly oversold the pair is on the 4 hour, daily and now the weekly charts. At some point traders will take profits or corporations will form some more substantial resistance.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell rallies once the pair is not oversold anymore, possibly around 1.8850 or even 1.9000.

(click to enlarge)

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day trading, GBP/USD, oversold, resistance, technical analysis, trading ideas
Technical Analysis
August 15, 2008
Technical Analysis ...

8-15-08

6:00a GMT – EUR/USD remains bearish on the charts with a sustained break below 1.5000. Pair is stilling heavily oversold but a few more days of sideways movement should ease that. For those doubting which direction the trend is in the shorter term: the pair has dropped 1300 pips in the past 30 days. Remember – it is easier to ride the trend then to bet against it.

Trading Idea: As long as the pair remains below 1.5000 shorts are favored with targets at 1.4865, 1.4775, and eventually all the back to strong support at 1.4450.

(click to enlarge)

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daily, day trading, EUR/USD, oversold, RSI, support, sustained break, technical analysis, trading ideas
Technical Analysis
August 13, 2008
Technical Analysis ...

8-13-08

22:21 GMT – GU remains bearish on all time frames but is approaching strong weekly support just as the pair is reaching highly oversold levels on the weekly chart as well (it is also oversold on everything from 1h-weekly). On signs of bouncing off the support at 1.8500 this might be a good opportunity to hedge your shorts on a bounce back to 1.9000.

Trading Idea: Look for stalling and candlestick signals on the 4H and daily charts at 1.8500 with long targets back to 1.9000 as the oversold levels reset.

(click to enlarge)

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bounce, day trading, GBP/USD, stalling, support, technical analysis, trading ideas, weekly
Technical Analysis
August 12, 2008
Technical Analysis ...

8-12-08

22:38 GMT – The daily charts are showing a possible bullish reversal doji above previous strong weekly resistance at 1.4850. Also the RSI is very oversold at a below 20 level (below 30 is classically considered oversold) on the daily charts as well. I think the overall trend with pair is down right now but we might see a rise to the trend line resistance (red line below) as traders take profits on their shorts and consolidate gains made on the dollar’s rise.

Trading Idea: Aggressive traders might enter now with a stop below the bottom of the doji while conservative traders would probably wait for the close of the next candlestick to give further direction for the pair (a close above 1.4942, the previous candle’s open would be a very bearish signal). Long targets include 1.5025, 1.5150 and 1.5200. Caution is advised however as the overall trend is down in the mid-term so a long trade would be against the mid-term trend.

(click to enlarge)

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bullish doji, day trading, doji, EUR/USD, reversal doji, technical analysis, trading ideas
Technical Analysis
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