Archive For "August, 2008"

8-10-08

20:45 GMT – The US dollar made a strong rally last week with the GBP/USD pair falling almost 600 pips in the last 7 days! Several pairs including EUR/USD, USD/CHF and the GBP/USD are at key support and resistance levels leading me to believe that the rise of the US dollar will stall at the least and possibly slighly reversal as overbought/oversold levels are consolidated.

Because of the 600 pip drop I needed to consult the weekly charts (seen below) to find the key support levels as all daily and hourly chart supports were broken. In the long term I expect more USD strength as the economic slowdown catches up to the rest of the world but we will most likely see some overbought USD sales to consolidate the gains.

Trading Idea: Look to sell rallies, possibly in the 1.9450 or 1.9550 resistance areas. Ultimately I see the pair challenging 1.8900 in the coming weeks.

(click to enlarge)

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8-8-08

2:26a GMT – After my last EUR/USD full analysis predicting more losses I see more of the same as a major support level was broken this week below 1.5284. The pair is heavily oversold on almost all time frames up to and including daily charts so a slight rise to resistance between 1.5350-1.5380 could occur.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.5380 with targets back down to 1.5284, 1.5190 and eventually back down to 1.5055.

(click to enlarge)

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8-6-08

20:12 GMT – A bullish RSI divergence has appeared on the EUR/USD 60M and 4H charts (more evident on 60M chart below. A bullish divergence is when the price action makes lower lows while the RSI makes higher lows. Overall I think the EU is in a downtrend but this might provide a bump to ease oversold levels.

Trading Idea: If you were to trade this divergence look for long targets above the 1.5400 support at 1.5425, 1.5445 and 1.5475.

(click to enlarge)

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8-6-08

5:00a GMT – The monthly/weekly outlook for EUR/USD remains to the upside, but the daily and especially the 4h charts are showing clear bearish patterns. In the short to mid-term I favor the downside with a possible rise to the red resistance trend line currently around 1.5575 before testing lows again. 4h RSI is just crosses back from oversold but the 60M and daily have plenty of room to fall.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.5550 with targets at 1.5515 and 1.5435.

(click to enlarge)

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8-4-08

17:12 GMT – The USD/CAD pair is at strong daily, weekly, monthly resistance (currently around 1.0375, red line on daily chart below) and I will be looking for a sell opportunity. We have been in a short-term uptrend with the USD/CAD as oil prices have retreated but I think both are temporary and that the general USD weakness will bring this pair back down. Because this has been in a short term uptrend you might see a higher high than last time, possibly even up to 1.0400.

Also, the RSI just touched 70 (overbought) on the daily chart, a further indicator that this pair will turn around in the near future.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 1.0400 with targets at 1.0285, 1.0180, 1.0075 and 0.9990.

(click to enlarge)

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8-3-08

17:18 GMT – The GU pair is giving off mixed signals on Sunday afternoon. Overall I expect the downside to hold out on both the 4H and the Daily charts but I will look to sell rallies. Their is a bullish RSI divergence on the 4H charts that indicates a possible rise in the pair to resistance at 1.9800, 1.9840 or even (if the news is strong enough) to the top of the channel resistance (yellow lines below) currently around 1.9875.

Trading Idea: short favored on rallies with targets ultimately down to 1.9675.

(click to enlarge)

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8-1-08

3:26a GMT – Pair briefly spiked today on slower US GDP growth than expected by big money immediately brought that down to previous levels as the picture in the UK is not much better. 1.9840 is our first level of resistance with 1.9905 holding the second resistance point. Pair is still caught in a bearish channel (yellow lines below) and fundmentals support continued GBP weakness. Consolidation over the past days has relieved oversold levels and opened up a fresh downside.

Trading Idea: shorts preferred below 1.9850 with targets at 1.9785, 1.9755 and ultimately 1.9705.

(click to enlarge)

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