Archive For "September, 2008"

9-30-08

2:26a GMT – After booking 200 pips on our last sell signal we are looking for more selling opportunities, this time around resistance at 1.4555 (the 9/25 and 9/26 low).

Trading Idea: look for bearish candlestick signals around these levels to confirm trade. Shorts favored with targets at 1.4445, 1.4350 and 1.4300. If 1.4575 is broken look for a challenge of 1.4660.

Side note: you may have noticed less signals coming out recently; this is due to market volatility. No point in entering a trade on nothing more than a hunch ;).

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9-25-08

3:26a GMT – My last signal was a buy at 1.4600. Close that for a 100-pip gain. The horrible housing data in the US actually gave some traders the glimmer of hope that a bottom is forming in the housing market. Plus Congress is actively discussing bailout options to loosen the credit crunch for home buyers. Together some traders see a stronger US housing market in the long-term future.

Technically the pair stalled about 1.4880, bounced off 1.4600 and now seems confined between 1.4750-1.4600.

Trading Idea: With the topside failure I am looking for selling opp around 1.4750-1.4765. Look for a bearish reversal signal in this range with short targets favored down to 1.4600 and 1.4550. If resistance is broken look for a re-test of 1.4800.

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9-23-08

3:26a GMT – EUR/USD remains bullish, with strong support between 1.4600-1.4500. I will be looking for a dip and then bullish reversal signals in this area, with a mid-term challenge of 1.4900 as my target.

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9-19-08

3:26a GMT – The USD is giving off mixed signals but I’m looking to buy dips as other currencies gain back some losses they suffered in the past month.

Trading Idea: Support is at 1.4100 and I am looking for bullish reversal signals at this area. Long targets at 1.4225, 1.4280 and 1.4400.

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9-17-08

3:26a GMT – After staying bearish on the EUR/USD for the past month on starting to turn a little bullish. The pair stalled at 1.3890 support after just touching the Fibonacci 50% support from Oct 2005 low to 1.6000. We have fallen over 1,000 pips in the past 2.5 months and I’m looking for a bit of the bounce in the current market.

Trading Idea: Look for bullish candlestick closes in the 1.4050 area with long targets at 1.4165 and 1.4270.

(click to enlarge)

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9-12-08

3:26a GMT – AUD/USD has a nice bullish RSI divergence and the AUD received news today that indicated they might not have to lower interest rates as soon as previously thought. This points toward a possible further bounce in the pair and I see that extending as far as resistance between .8165-.8195.

Trading Idea: Below .8195 shorts are favored back to the targets .8095, .8005 and eventually .7915. If .8200 is broken look for a challenge of .8315.

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9-11-08

3:26a GMT – The short trade continues to dominate as the downtrend strengthens in the EUR/USD with most technical levels of support breaking in the last few weeks. I’ve been advising to sell the EUR/USD for the past few months now and it has paid off nicely. Risk now is the oversold levels and a bounce ease off. That being said the trend is down and I like the Fibonacci 50% target at 1.3850.

Trading Idea: Short trades favored below 1.4050 down to 1.3850. Above 1.4050 look for more gains to 1.4150.

(click to enlarge)

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9-9-08

5:06a GMT – USD/JPY shows weakness on the 4 hour charts and mixed signals on the dailies, but the technical picture shows more losses in the short term. Resistance is at 108.00 with a downside return to 106.00 likely.

Trading Idea: Shorts favored below 108.00 with targets down to 106.00. Above 108.00 look for limited gains, possibly to 109.00.

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9-8-08

5:50a GMT – GBP/USD is approaching resistance at 1.8000 as the pair saw its first major corrective action in weeks. I will continue to sell the downtrend and will look for selling opportunities on this latest strength. Wait for candlestick confirmation or other technical indicators, however, as the pair is drastically oversold and any bad news out of the U.S. could cause traders to begin covering their shorts.

Trading Idea: Look for short trade confirmations (e.g. bearish candlestick reversals) around resistance at 1.8000 with short targets at 1.7800, 1.7750, and 1.7650. If 1.8000 is broken look for a challenge of 1.8200.

(click to enlarge)

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9-5-08

3:26a GMT – As the EUR/USD broke through strong support once again, we need to back out all the way to a monthly chart to take a look at where this might go next. The answer: the EUR/USD has more room to fall with the next major support at 1.4000 at the intersection of the 50% Fibonacci level (from the July 2005-March 2008 rise), the monthly trend support and a large round number.

Trading Idea: Look to sell rallies on shorter term charts down to 1.4000.

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