Archive For "November, 2008"

The banks are closed in the US as we celebrate Thanksgiving day and, as a result, no signals until next Monday.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

11-26-08

3:26a GMT – EUR/USD bounced off 1.2800 support last night and rose quickly over 200 pips to 1.3060. The pair is still technically bullish in my eyes, though I am looking for good dips to buy on.  Major caution on the charts is an overbought RSI, but there is certainly still room to a run and a few hours of loss will clear room for another long run. Nearest support levels are at 1.2950 and 1.2800.

Trading Idea: I am looking for the more conservative trade around 1.2800 support. Look for bullish reversal signals around this area with long targets favored toward 1.2950, 1.3050 and eventually 1.3200

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11-24-08

3:50a GMT – US traders took money out of the dollar and put it into the stock market today, leading to a good raise in the EUR/USD pair that managed to take out solid trend resistance.  Combined with the strong support the pair has found at 1.2400 my outlook has switched to buying dips.

Trading Idea: there are three major support levels and I will be looking for signs of bullish reversals at all of them. Support levels are at 1.2800, 1.2670 and 1.2430. Longs favored with an eventual challenge of 1.3000 and 1.3200

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It looks like I sent out the wrong link to everyone:

“Learn Forex #3 – Win more trades” has moved here.

Sorry for the inconvenience!

11-21-08

3:26a GMT – I feel like I could have copied and pasted the analysis for the past week – “EUR/USD is bearish around 1.2590″ – but that is a good thing generally because it means we have a strong and easily identifiable trend. This continues today but to mix it up a little I’m analysing the daily chart below (normally we look at the 4 hour charts).

As you can see the downtrend for the EUR/USD on the daily chart is extremely easy to see, dropping over 3500 pips in the past 4 months! The pair has definitely found some support recently around 1.2300 and 1.2400 but you can see why we are looking to sell on rallies instead of buying against the trend – the pair has been much more likely to return to the downside than it has to rise up.

Key to the pair tomorrow will be the US stocks – which are almost sure to rest on the shoulders of the potential auto bailout. In short, I think if consumer sentiment is positive about a potential buyout we will see stocks rise or hover just above opening price and then we will see the dollar give up some gains. If the bailout sentiment is bad with some other bad news about the economy look for the stocks to lose gains and the dollar to gain as traders convert to USD positions.

Trading Idea: currently we are looking to sell rallies around resistance at 1.2595. Shorts preferred with targets at 1.2425 and eventually a challenge of 1.2350.

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e11-20-08

11:36a GMT – I just wanted to make a quick note here on my recent free forex signals. As you have noticed for roughly the past month I have only been offering analysis and signals on the EUR/USD. This was intentional and because of recent volatility in the market.

I had stopped trading and providing forex signals for most other pairs because the markets were not liquid – leading to my orders not being filled correctly and the spreads being too large for my money management ratios.

It looks like things have calmed down recently though so I will slowly start to offer more signals for more currency pairs. In the past I’ve done USD/JPY, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

What is your preference? Which currency pairs would you like to see more analysis and/or signals for? Type your comments below and use the contact form on the left to let me know!

P.S. Sorry if you received this already. I had some email problems this morning.

11-20-08

3:08a GMT – We had a major spike today in the EUR/USD – it rose 200 pips in an hour and then fell over 400 pips in the following hours. Apparently the spike was due to a large hedge fund buy order at the same time the Fed announced it was using quantitative easing to help fight deflation. Traders then jumped on the opportunity to short the spike at the same time US stocks plummeted and more stock traders put their money in the relative safety of the US dollar. My overall outlook on the EUR/USD remains unchanged however: bearish!

Trading Idea: Shorts preferred around resistance levels. Nearest resistance is at 1.2575. Look for bearish reversal signals for a test of 1.2350.

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11-19-08

3:26a GMT – No major technical changes in EUR/USD, which basically reaffirms the pair’s bearish outlook. Traders have been consolidating the position in another triangular consolidation pattern (where the two yellow lines intersect and make a triangle below). Last week when this happened the pair dropped over 200 pips when it finally broke the pattern.

Trading Idea: Hold shorts for a test of 1.2505 and eventually 1.2365. If you are looking to reset shorts look for bearish candlestick signs around 1.2700 to sell on rallies.

(click to enlarge)
 

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11-18-08

3:17a GMT – Yesterday’s forex signal was for a bearish reversal for the EUR/USD pair. We saw this bearish reversal just underneath resistance at 1.2750 and the pair has since dropped over 100 pips to 1.2600 and I expect the bearish outlook to continue down to at least 1.2500.

Trading Idea: Holding current shorts to 1.2505 and eventually 1.2350 is preferred. If you are looking for an entry point shorts are preferred and resistance at 1.2750 might be a good rally point to look to reset a short trade.

(click to enlarge)
 

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11-17-08

3:26a GMT – In my forex signal from Friday of last week I said that there were mixed signals, but that I trusted the flagpole signal more than the trend resistance so if you were an aggressive trader I would go long. I ended with this advice: “As we approach the weekend however, no trade at all might be the best trade for now :) [due to the mixed signals].”

Well I hoped you listened to that advice as we opened the trading this week with a huge gap lower after the pair bounced hard off the trend resistance (yellow line below). This reinforces the downward trend of the pair and I am now looking to sell rallies, preferably around the yellow resistance line below.

Trading Idea: Resistance to look for a bearish reversal signal at for the short trade – 1.2600, 1.2715 and 1.2775. Short targets should fall down to 1.2505 and 1.2395 eventually.

(click to enlarge)

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