Archive For "December, 2008"

12-31-08

6:26a GMT – Signals from the charts are starting to crystalize a little bit in a temporary range, probably as big money pulls out of trading until after the New Year’s. The range appears to be 1.3820-1.4260 and I am looking to buy support around 1.3820 with tight stops. For those of you who like the breakout trade a triangular consolidation pattern has appeared on the chart (yellow trend lines below) and a breakout of that consolidation pattern usually yields a quick 50 or so pips.

Trading Idea: Looking to buy support around 1.3820 for a return to the top of the range with targets at 1.4050 and 1.4300.

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12-30-08

6:26a GMT – In my signal yesterday I was looking to buy a dip down at 1.3820. Unfortunately the pair shot upward before dipping that far, but has since fallen back down to the 1.4000 range. The RSI touched 70 (overbought) and quickly retreated though recent movement has cleared room for another rise, while base support around 1.3820 continues to push the pair upward.

Trading Idea: I am looking to buy a bullish candelstick signals at any of three support levels: 1.4000, 1.3905 or 1.3820. A return to 1.4370 is the first target with 1.4500 not far behind it.

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12-29-08

5:56a GMT – EUR/USD as found some support near 1.3820 and while all signals point towards continued volatility I am looking to buy around that support level. Of course, with the volatility I will look to keep stops very tight (25-30 pips) and catch the pair on the way up (not on the way down!).

Trading Idea: look for bullish candlestick signals near 1.3820 to confirm the trade with longs favored. Targets at 1.3985 and 1.4125. Stops should be tight as market is volatile and could swing easily to the downside as well.

(click to enlarge)
 

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Holiday season is upon us here in the states! The banks will be closed tomorrow (Christmas Eve), Thursday (Christmas Day) and most will be closed Friday as well so I will not be posting any forex signals or technical analysis signals until next week!

Enjoy your time off and happy holidays from Mark and PipHut!

12-23-08

15:55 GMT – Market has wobbled up and down the past few days but remained overall at the same price level indicating indecision in the market as traders look for some direction. Overall the signals from the chart remain bearish and I will continue to sell in that direction on rallies while using a tight stop to limit losses. Nearest resistance is at 1.4125 and I will look to sell their.

Trading Idea: look for a slow rise to resistance area around 1.4125 with shorts preferred down on bearish reversal signals. Looking for tight returns of 1.3900 and 1.3850. Keep stops relatively tight as well.

(click to enlarge)
 

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12-22-08

5:57a GMT – While mid-term signals are bullish the short-term charts continue to give bearish signals of a further reverse. Pair rose 2000 pips in the past 2 months and as a result we have an overbought pair. The correction started last week as the pair crashed off of 1.4700. Now I am looking to selling rallies at resistance, with the closest resistance at 1.4050.

Trading Idea: shorts preferred with bearish reversal signal around 1.4050 resistance. Targets at 1.3835 and eventually 1.3765.

(click to enlarge)

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12-19-08

4:41a GMT – Do you know what one of my favorite trades is? No trade at all. And with extremely mixed signals on the charts this is one of those times when there is no shame in sitting this one out and enjoying your weekend. That being said, the EUR/USD has cooled off some and cleared off the overbought levels that had me concerned in the last signal. The trend is still up but after rising some 2000 pips in the past two weeks some more major correction might be in store and more market data is needed to tell which way we are going.

Trading Idea: depending on your analysis I would look to buy and sell near support and resistance levels and use very tight stops. Nearest support if you are buying with the trend is at 1.4170 and I would look for another challenge of 1.4370 and 1.4500. If you are looking to sell nearest resistance is at 1.4370 and I would look for a return to 1.4170 and eventually 1.4005.

(click to enlarge)
 

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12-18-08

5:24a GMT – The fed made the expected move of again lowering the lending rate, however they made it quicker than some analysts expected and made a more aggressive cut (.75%) than many expected. The dollar was soft to begin with and this latest news pushed it even lower as the EUR/USD hit a monthly high of 1.4450. All of this means that the uptrend is still very much intact, however as with the previous signals the pair is currenty overbought so I am looking for dips to buy on near support.

Trading Idea: nearest support is around 1.4125 (next closeset is 1.4005) and I will be looking for bullish reversal signs around this area. If I see none I will wait for support at 1.4005. Long targets are favored for another challenge of 1.4310 and then 1.4450.

(click to enlarge)
 

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12-17-08

5:56a GMT – EUR/USD continued its climb today after bouncing off support at 1.3650 and rising a smooth 400 pips. Pair is technically in the same position as it was for yesterday’s signal: overbought at the moment but the uptrend is strong and intact so we are therefor looking to buy dips. Possible support at two places – 1.3990 and 1.3945.

Trading Idea: look for overbought hourlies to bring the pair a little lower and look for bullish reversal signals around 1.3990 and 1.3945 with longs favored for another run at 1.4175 at least.

(click to enlarge)

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12-16-08

5:26a GMT – The answer is yes and no. The pair is overbought and in need of some correction – but I would start selling any time soon. Trend is obviously up right now and while I think we will see a dip to ease off overbought levels as traders take some profits I don’t want to be caught on the wrong end of this rise. I am sticking with the strategy of buying dips as we have been on the right side of a 1000 pip rise so far.

Trading Idea: look for a dip to ease overbought levels and then look for bullish reversal signals around support, currently at 1.3640  and 1.3535. Longs favored for another test of 1.3765.

(click to enlarge)

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