Archive For "December, 2008"

12-15-08

5:26a GMT – EUR/USD bounced off of 1.3250 and skyrocketed through weak resistance in the Asian markets on hopes that the Bush Administration is planning on bailing out the auto industry. Though I am bullish on the EUR/USD it is overbought at the moment and I think the US markets will have a more muted reaction when markets open. My trading strategy then is to buy on dips.

Trading Idea: Nearest support is 1.3375 then 1.3250 and I will be looking for bullish signals near either of those and be using tight stops. Longs favored back up to 1.3485, 1.3535 and 1.3640.

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12-12-08

6:05a GMT – The EUR/USD has broken out of the 1.3300 resistance area (strong daily resistance) after several weeks of bouncing off support around 1.2400 confirming the bullish nature of the pair. I am looking to reset longs between support above 1.3250. I recommend using an extremely tight stop however, as the pair is very overbought at the moment.

Trading Idea: look to catch the pair on the way up above the 1.3250 support. Use very tight stops as the pair is extremely overbought. Longs favored with targets back to 1.3400 and eventually a challenge of 1.3515.

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12-11-08

First off I just wanted to let everyone know that I put up a PipHut Testimonials page. Basically I just put up some of the comments I’ve received recently. Check it out here!

4:36a GMT – Pair continues to make higher highs and higher lows, creating a stronger bullish picture with each day. Right now pair is right at resistance around 1.3050 and is touching 70 on the RSI indicator (meaning overbought) so I am looking to take profit now and reset the long trade on a dip. Nearest support is between 1.2915-1.2900. Though I expect a dip in the short term I would NOT go short on the pair as most signs are bullish and only the most aggressive traders bet against the trend.

Trading Idea: look for a slight dip to shed overbought levels and then bullish signals around the 1.2915-1.2900 with longs preferred with another test of 1.3050, 1.3115 and eventually a retest of 1.3260.

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12-10-08

4:36a GMT – First off I know that a lot of you did not receive yesterday’s signal. It looks like PipHut was having an email issue but it should be fixed now. Let me know if you are still having issues. By the way signals usually come out around 4:30a so if you check the site around then you might be able to get a jump :). On to today’s signal!

Yesterday’s signal produced some good profit after bouncing off support at 1.2800 and raising 200 pips to 1.3000. I am still technically bullish on the pair after it charged through resistance the past few days. My only concerns on the trade are a) overbought levels might pull the pair back down some more and b) pair needs to break 1.3085 to really confirm the uptrend. Short term though I would look to reset long trades on good support.

Trading Idea: Nearest support is between 1.2845-1.2815 and I would wait for technical indicator or candlestick confirmation before entering trade. Longs favored for a test of 1.2895, 1.2935, 1.3000 and eventually a challenge of 1.3080.

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12-09-08

4:54a GMT – It looks like my concerns from yesterday’s signal (bullish signals) were valid as the pair made a major correction today, surging over 200 pips so I hoped you heeded my suggestion to make sure there was a trade confirmation. For today there is one bearish signal left (it did not break the yellow trend line on the chart below) but the net signs are all bullish and as a result I am looking to go long. Nearest support is between 1.2840-1.2815.

Trading Idea: Looking for bullish reversal signals on the 4-hour and 60-minute charts around the 1.2825 support area. Longs favored with a re-challenge of 1.2965 and 1.3080.

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12-08-08

5:15a GMT – EUR/USD is still ranging (see my signal here from last week) in the larger 1.3075-1.2475. The fundamentals have not drastically changed even with recent developments in the Fed and across the pond in Europe. Traders are generally negative on both economies, but the Europe Central Bank still has room to lower its interest rate. Overall I am concerned that the pair has found near term support at 1.2400 and a base has formed. This would make the pair overall bullish and makes looking for candlestick confirmations and other technical indicators such as RSI to confirm your trades that much more important. Nearest resistance is at 1.2800.

Trading Idea: look for bearish reversal confirmations around resistance at 1.2800 with short targets preferred down to 1.2725, 1.2600 and possibly a challenge of 1.2550.

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P.S. I’m going to be upgrading various parts of the site over the next week or two. If you notice any broken links or non-working pages/items be sure to send me an email to mark@piphut.com! Thanks!

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12-04-08

4:16a GMT – After yesterdays bear signal the pair did proceed down nicely to 1.2575 so I hope you were able to book some profit off of that. Shortly after though the pair skyrocketed almost 300 pips to 1.2845. The pair has since found sellers and settled down in the 1.2765 area. Technically the pair has made a higher high while bouncing off of existing support so I am now looking to buy dips and go long for the day, preferably around 1.2700 or 1.2675 support.

Trading Idea: longs favored between 1.2700 and 1.2675 support area with targets back to 1.2765, 1.2825 and eventually a challenge of 1.2955.

(click to enlarge)

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12-04-08

4:41a GMT – Yesterday’s forex signal regarding range trading still remains in play, but we have a new technical aspect to consider: a triangular consolidation pattern (yellow converging trend lines below). I will be watching this closely as usually when the pair breaks out of a consolidation pattern in breaks out in a big 50-100 pip way. The red lines on the chart below still represent the various support and resistance levels of the pair. While an aggressive trader could range trade both up and down there are more technical levels pointing down so I will be looking for selling opps at the resistance levels.

Trading Idea: look for a re-challenge of the 1.2765 resistance. Shorts are preferred with targets to 1.2675 and back down to 1.2575.

P.S. to all of you who have sent me email this past week I apologize for being slow in getting back to you. It has been a busy week since the holidays!

(click to enlarge)

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12-03-08

4:11a GMT – Looking at the 4-hour chart of the EUR/USD a thought crossed my mind: the market looks as confused as traders are! Up and down, up and down no real direction. My next thought: a classic range trade. Six months ago everyone thought the EUR/USD was going to 1.70. Four months ago most thought the EUR/USD was at least going back to 1.60. Now most traders are just scratching their heads, not sure where the pair is going. So it is time for a little range trading until the market picks a direction again.

On the chart I analyzed below I’ve displayed a variety of support and resistance levels in red for you to look for bearish/bullish signs around. The yellow lines at the top and bottom are the limits of the daily range – beyond these and the range trading is broken. The blue arrows are not necessarily where I think the market is going but are meant to show the general range nature of the pair right now.

Trading Idea: Closest resistance is 1.2765. Look for bearish signs around this level on shorter time frame charts for a return to support levels (closest is 1.2675). Beyond these levels look for trades at the other red lines (support and resistance) for more entries/exits.

(click to enlarge)

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12-02-08

5:38a GMT – The bears look set to continue the downward push with in the EUR/USD as strong resistance has formed between 1.2675-1.2700. There is plenty of room to drop on the RSI for the 4-hour charts and I am looking for a test of 1.2585 and 1.2550 in the short term. At the open of the US stock exchanges in the morning I will look to see where the futures are pointing – an increase in US stocks will lead me to be bullish on the EUR while a drop in stock prices will make me bullish on the dollar.

Trading Idea: short term shorts favored. Looking for bearish candlesticks between 1.2675-1.2700 for a retest of 1.2585 and 1.2550.

(click to enlarge)
 

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