Archive For "January, 2009"

2-30-08

5:26a GMT – Per my signal yesterday I sold a sustained break of 1.3100 after the pair never returned back up to 1.3300 resistance. Bearish trend remains intact as resistance at 1.3385 remains untouched and the pair suffered good losses yesterday. RSI shows yesterday’s bearish movement is indeed real.

Trading Idea: For traders looking to enter a trade shorts could be reset at 1.3025 on a rise with goals down to 1.2800. If pair reverses course and breaks 1.3050 look for a challenge of 1.3180.

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1-29-09

3:44a GMT – The EUR/USD failed for a second time to hold a sustained break 1.3300 resistance and has now formed a bearish double-top formation on the 4-hour charts, reinforcing my sell analysis. The pair also failed to challenge the more major resistance at 1.3385 and has long wicks on the upside – both bearish signals.

Trading Idea: looking for opportunities to sell at 1.3300 (or even slightly below if I get signal confirmation) for a run down to 1.3150 and 1.3025. If resistance is not reached I would consider selling a sustained break of 1.3100 with targets at 1.3025 and 1.2950.

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1-27-09

4:26a GMT – First off thanks for all the comments and questions I get on a daily basis. I don’t always get to all of them but If you do have a question or comment the best way to get in touch with me is at our forex forums here.

On to the signals! The bulls made a big push yesterday, charging straight through my sell zone at 1.3020 and (thankfully) never giving me a bearish reversal signal or any sort of sell signal. While this upward push definitely puts another mixed signal in there, as long as the pair stays below daily resistance at 1.3385 I am still looking for selling opportunities.

Trading Idea: Selling rallies preferred, with nearest resistance at 1.3375. As always, use candlesticks to confirm the sell signal and catch it on the way down. Tight stops with targets down to 1.3075 and 1.2905. If 1.3375 is broken look for 1.3545.

(click to enlarge)

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1-26-09

3:56a GMT – Welcome back! I hope everyone had a good weekend. Back to Forex! Overall I am still seeing bearish signals on the charts but a few things are making me nervous. First, the dailies are almost oversold (currently around 38 on the RSI) and in need of some greater correction. Second, we saw a textbook bullish doji on 4-hour charts at the end of last week (circled in blue below).

However, lower lows and lower highs continue to be made, meaning the dominant trend is to the downside and that is where I am looking to trade. I will look for rallies to sell on around resistance areas, and use tight stops in case the bulls win out.

Trading Idea: I am looking to sell around 1.3020, with shorts preferred down to 1.2870 and 1.2805 for a quick 200 pips or so. Catch it on the way down and use tight stops.

(click to enlarge)
 

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1-22-09

6:26a GMT – We are still short from yesterday’s signal, about 50 pips in the profit. Stops are extremely tight (at break even) as I look for further weakness to continue. For traders looking to enter a trade the charts are bearish with lower lows and lower highs over the past month now confirming the downtrend. US stocks rallied today and the dollar did not weaken tremendously, which further confirms traders are bearish on the Euro.

Trading Idea: look for short sells on rallies, particularly near resistance currently at 1.3100. Short targets preferred at 1.3015 and eventually 1.2865.

(click to enlarge)

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1-21-09

5:56a GMT – I’m moving my resistance down a bit from my sell signals yesterday (1.3125) down to between 1.3050-1.3075. The bearish trend remains strong and I will be watching US stocks closely, as generaly when the stocks do poorly the dollar does well. Overall the pair established yet another low yesterday and while it is currently oversold I expect a slight bounce to ease those levels and then another push downward.

Trading Idea: Shorts preferred in resistance “zone” between 1.3050-1.3075 with tight stops and targets at 1.2950, 1.2865 and 1.2860 eventually.

(click to enlarge)

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1-20-09

5:05a GMT – .. Must come down. It looks like the bullish gap signal on the charts yesterday was a fluke, though we did have a nice doji on the 30 min charts right at 1.3300 followed by a 75 pip rise it in the end came back down and is now in the 1.3000 range. Good thing tight stops and good money mangement are always used, right :)?

Today established a new lower low on the charts, reinforcing the bearish trend. We do have a bullish divergence on the RSI as it touches 30 on the 4-hour chart but there is still room to run. I will look for a slight easing of oversold levels and will be watching the US stock levels closely as they open, but in general I am selling rallies and resistance.

Trading Idea: Nearest resistance is at 1.3125 and I would prefer selling on bearish candlestick signals in that area. Short targets preferred at 1.2955 and 1.2860. If a sustained 1.3130 break occurs look for a challenge of 1.3185 and 1.3250.

(click to enlarge)

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1-19-09

5:26a GMT – It is refreshing to write a signal that is different from the past 10 signals or so – finally I am looking long on the EUR/USD pair! The pair jumped over the weekend and had a 100-pip gap to the positive side, meaning traders expect the pair to rise this week. Though the medium-term trend still looks negative on the short-term charts we have a new higher high vs. last week which is another signal to look for longs at support and on dips.

Trading Idea: look for buying opportunities near the bottom of the gap around 1.3300 with tight stops in case Monday’s open brings bad news for the Euro. Long targets favored to 1.3385, 1. 1.3450 and 1.3530.

(click to enlarge)
 

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1-15-09

5:06a GMT – The EUR/USD continues to produce selling signals on the chart and today is no different. The pair continued its downward trend yesterday with another lower high and lower low on the back of weak US stock performance.

Trading Idea: I am looking to continue the short positions on the pair and sell near resistance at 1.3230 on bearish confirmation signals. Targets at 1.3120 and eventually 1.2955. On a sustained break of 1.3250 look for a re-challenge of 1.3350.

(click to enlarge)
 

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1-13-08

6:26a GMT – Before today’s signals I just want to say thanks for all the comments and feedback you’ve been sending me recently. Sorry I haven’t had time to respond to most of them but I have gotten them and appreciate it. Now on to today’s signals… The EUR/USD is still bearish on the charts after clearing 1.3300 tonight. Currently the pair is sitting on support at 1.3250 while also at 30 on the RSI so I expect a short-term rise to even out oversold levels.

Trading Idea: I am looking to sell resistance now at 1.3455. Short targets are preferred at 1.3375, 1.3250 and eventually down to 1.3075.  On a sustained break above 1.3455 look for a return to 1.3600.

(click to enlarge)

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