Archive For "February, 2009"

2-11-09

3:26a GMT – Nice pips yesterday off of the range trade signals. The EUR/USD bounced around within the range yielding some good points along the way. Tomorrow I expect much of the same and will keep a close eye on the news as the Obama administration continues to sell the financial recovery program. Market reactions to the program are key. If stocks rise I tend to be bearish on the dollar, if they fall I tend to be bullish on the dollar.

Trading Idea: short-term I’m looking to sell rallies near 1.3070 or just under 1.3100 (depending on where bearish candlestick signals appear) with shorts preferred down to 1.3000, 1.2905 and 1.2835.

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2-10-09

5:26a GMT – There was no sustained break of 1.3100 but yesterday’s challenge was enough to shake my faith in the downtrend. The pair surged 200 pips in early morning trading only to bounce off of 1.3100 and drop almost 300 pips to where it is now around 1.2820. The markets are looking for direction, looking for some news on the bailout in the US. I don’t think any side has enough fundamental news to win the argument at the moment so I believe the markets will range between 1.3100 and 1.2750 in the meantime.

Trading Idea: In the short-term I am looking for bullish reversal signals near 1.2750 with a cautious eyes on fundamental news that could knock the range off track. Tight stops. Long targets at 1.2900 1.2995 and 1.3075.

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2-9-09

6:04a GMT – Alright I am done with my traveling from last week so expect signals every day this week! As you can see from the chart below the EUR/USD continues to make lower lows and lower-highs, confirming the overall bearish trend. To confirm a true reversal and go bullish I need the pair to break 1.3100. In the meantime I will continue selling the pair on rallies in the short term.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell near resistance at 1.2995 but might sell a sustained break of 1.2900. Tight stops with short targets down preferred down to 1.2905, 1.2815, and 1.2750.

(click to enlarge)

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2-5-09

6:26a GMT – First of all let me apologize that signals have not been coming out every day this past week. I forgot to mention that I’ve been traveling this week and have not always had the time to update PipHut. I’m done traveling on Friday though so it is back to normal!

The EUR/USD continues to go up and down in a natural oscillation for the past month, always making lower lows and lower highs confirming the strong downtrend. In fact the pair has dropped nearly 2000 pips since mid-december, to give you an idea of the strength of the recent downtrend. I am looking to sell with this trend at closest resistance. Pair is currently on daily support at 1.2800 but I expect it to eventually break through that.

Trading Idea: good resistance is at 1.2950 with better resistance at 1.3060, and I will be looking for bearish candlestick confirmation signals between both areas. Short targets preferred down to 1.2835 and 1.2755.

(click to enlarge)
 

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2-3-09

8:26a GMT – The EUR/USD gave an extremely bearish signal yesterday when it broke 1.2760 and established a new low. The pair continues to make lower lows and lower highs to confirm its bearish trend overall. In the mid-term the pair dipped below 30 on the RSI for the 4-hour charts and quickly rebounded. It has some more breathing room now and I am looking to sell resistance.

Trading Idea: Nearest resitance is around the 1.2900 area. Shorts are preferred in that area with targets at 1.2815 and 1.2705.

(click to enlarge)
 

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