Archive For "March, 2009"

3-31-09

6:26a GMT – First off thanks for those of you who reported the email problems yesterday and over the weekend. I should have straightened it out but let me know if your still having a problem receiving the signals. EUR/USD continued its descent yesterday but found support around 1.3100 and we got a 160 pip bounce off that level up to 1.3275. Pair is currently consolidating around this area. We had a new lower low yesterday so I will continue to go with the trend and sell bounces.

Trading Idea: We have hourly resistance at 1.3275 and 4-hour resistance at 1.3310. I will look for bearish confirmation signals near both levels. Tight stops, short targets preferred down to 1.3215 and 1.3130.

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3-30-09

5:32a GMT – EUR/USD fell over 300 pips in the end of last week as the failure at 1.3730 proved insurmountable. Bearish trend is still intact and I will look to continue to sell rallies and good resistance. Closest resistance is at 1.3310 and I will look for a failure around this area (possibly a little before it, around 1.3300). If no failure occurs there I will  look for 1.3340.

Trading Idea: Short targets preferred from above resistance down to 1.3275 and 1.3210.

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3-27-09

5:21a GMT – Once again it is Friday and we are looking at very mixed signals for the EUR/USD. I’m showing the daily chart for the EUR/USD below so we can take the wide-angle view of what is happening with the pair. As you can see the pair has been in a pretty steady downtrend since July of 2008 with some consolidation in December of 08. From this larger time frame view I am still bearish and it is looking like a better time to go short because of the recent consolidation in the pair.

Trading Idea: Short-term we have resistance at 1.3625 that would make for decent short positions with further confirmation. Targets down to 1.3555 and 1.3500.

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3-26-09

3:34a GMT – Pair hit our price point yesterday but never slowed down or gave a bearish candlestick so no trade was entered (I think when NOT to enter a trade will be the next “Learn Forex” article, thoughts?). I am still bearish today even though price failed to make a significant drop downward a new low was made reinforcing the dollar’s strength.

Trading Idea: bearish candlesticks and oversold RSI will be my entry signals around resistance at 1.3615 or 1.3650.

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3-25-09

6:26a GMT – EUR/USD continued to drop yesterday, never rallying to yesterday’s signal to enter. Today I see continued weakness in the euro as new lows were made and now the pair is knocking on the door of support at 1.3420. A clean and sustained break below 1.3420 is needed to confirm more substantial losses but I am bearish short-term.

Trading Idea: Look for bearish candlestick signals around resistance at 1.3500. Tight stops, short targets preferred down to 1.3435 and 1.3385.

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3-24-09

4:18a GMT – Three is a charm, right? EUR/USD has failed to break resistance around 1.3730 three times now and I am now looking to sell in the mid-term around this area. I will look for candlestick confirmations, overbought levels and use short stops to help ease risk.

Trading Idea:  Selling on confirmation signals near 1.3730, tight stops. Short targets preferred down to 1.3660, 1.3600 and 1.3515.

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3-23-09

5:26a GMT – Hope everyone had a good weekend! Back to the trading boards. We opened today in the asian markets with a nice 70 pip gap (bullish) that coincides with the Japanese stocks doing well. Technicals are overall bullish with higher highs, higher lows and resistance after resistance being broken. Last week we also saw a strong bullish run (over 900 pips!) and there is no good technical reason to think that run is over yet. I will look to reset longs on a bounce off support.

Trading Idea: Nearest support is near 1.3515-1.3500. I will look for bullish candlestick signals in this area with long targets preferred back to 1.3600, 1.3670 and 1.3715. If 1.3500 has  a sustained break look for a re-challenge of 1.3400.

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3-20-09

4:06a GMT – Pair made another big leap upwards yesterday with the Euro gaining almost 300 pips against the dollar. Pair is now banging against important resistance from Oct 2008 and early January 2009 around 1.3750. While I am still overall bullish and have made good pips off longs this week the highly overbought levels on the 4-hour and daily charts give me enough reason to pause. I will not be trading the support/resistance tomorrow due to the mixed signals but if you are an aggressive trade here are some ideas:

Trading Idea: aggressive traders could look for a long opportunity near support at 1.3600 or 1.3535 with a long target of 1.3660 and 1.3750. Very aggressive traders could even look for a short at 1.3750 for a return down to 1.3655.

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3-19-09

3:26a GMT – Big jump from the Euro today! Nearly 500 pip rise as traders reacted to the news that the US governement was buying treasuries and took money out of the relative safety of the dollar. Pair never went down far enough for the PipHut signal to catch fire but I did catch two longs with my personal trading that net 200 pips profit. Technically the pair is bullish but my concern is that it is severely overbought on the hourlies and the RSI is just touching 70 (overbought) on the daily charts. However, that is to be expected when a strong trend is in place.

Trading Idea: Looking to buy dips again. Nearest support is at 1.3350. Make sure you catch it on the way up or get a strong candlestick signal. Long targets back up to 1.3450 and 1.3550. If a sustained break of 1.3350 is made look for a drop down to the 1.3150 support.

(click to enlarge)
 

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3-18-09

3:36a GMT – Booked 70 pips off of yesterday’s signal and looking to continue buying, this time on dips. The pair has stalled out below 1.3050 where it met resistance and is near overbought territories. I am overall bullish, still, and will look for more buying opportunities as the pair dips. In the mid-term the best support is at 1.2930 and 1.2875.

Trading Idea: Look for buying opportunties on stalling near support at 1.2930 and 1.2875. Tight stops, targets at 1.2975, 1.3035 and 1.3075.

(click to enlarge)
 

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