Archive For "April, 2009"

4-30-09

6:26a GMT – EUR/USD bulls kept charging yesterday, pushing the pair past strong resistance at 1.3300 all the way up to 1.3337. Technically this establishes a new higher high for the pair and switches me from selling to buying the pair. The pair is heavily overbought right now so I would prefer to let the pair cool off and buy on a dip. On a side note, yesterday was a good reminder to all day traders on why solid money management and tight stops in a volatile market are always important!

Trading Idea: looking to buy once overbought levels cool off, preferably on dips down to 1.3200 or 1.3165. Long targets at 1.3245, 1.3290 and 1.3330.

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3:16a GMT – We had a nice big drop in the EUR/USD pair on Monday – and then a nice big rise yesterday as trader’s battled to find a fair price considering the economic news. Housing prices declined in the US again – but not as much as expected. Germany reported it was lowering its GDP forecast. Technically the pair continues to make lower lows and lower highers, signaling a healthy downtrend so I am going to continue to fade rallies, especially overbought rallies.

Trading Idea: shorts preferred on rallies near resistance at 1.3180 or 1.3230, especially overbought rallies. Short targets down to 1.3130, 1.3090 and 1.3030.

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4-27-09

4:26a GMT – EUR/USD is coming off of a strong bullish week but I am still bearish on the technicals and the 4-hour chart below shows why. The pair is still consolidating downwards from last year’s bullish Euro moves, with lower lows and lower highs being made every month or so. Their is no strong fundamental reason to believe last weeks push was anything more than further consolidation.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell near resistance at 1.3300 (or below on the right candlestick signal), with short targets preferred down to 1.3245, 1.3195 and 1.3125.

(click to enlarge)

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4-24-09

4:26a GMT – EUR/USD eased off some oversold levels yesterday as it accelerated upward through mid-term support and is now hanging around just below 1.3165. I think the pair has some more room to room and really get overbought before  a high probability trade can be entered so I am waiting for a pierce up to 1.3195, though depending on how this trading session goes 1.3165 might be a good entry point.

Trading Idea: Shorts preferred at good resistance point around 1.3195-1.3200. Targets at 1.3125, 1.3090, and 1.3050 for now.

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4-22-09

5:06a GMT – Before we talk about today’s signal I want to let those of you who have emailed or commented to me recently sorry I’ve been bad at responding. I don’t want to discourage you from participating at PipHut! It’s been a busy few weeks. On to today’s signal and analysis! Booked good pips yesterday first off the 1.2950 resistance and then later on 1.2990 resistance.  Another day of lower lows and lower highs means the bear trades remain the preferred choice. Euro bulls were finally able to fight back and stop the euro free-fall but the consolidation has been limited at best.

Trading Idea: selling resistance around 1.2990-1.3000, tight stop, with short targets down to 1.2950, 1.2915 and 1.2875.

(click to enlarge)

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4-21-09

5:13a GMT – EUR/USD continued its downward trend yesterday, dropping over 150 pips over the day. Yesterday’s sell signal was never reached, though I personally sold the break of 1.3000 support to pick up some pips along the way. Today I expect more of the same (can’t argue with the trend), though the oversold levels and the stalling at 1.2900 are definite concerns.

Trading Idea: Look for bearish confirmation signals around resistance levels at 1.2950 and below 1.3000. Short targets preferred at 1.2915 and 1.2855.

(click to enlarge)

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4-20-09

4:56a GMT – EUR/USD has dropped 500 pips in the past 2 weeks and is looking weak as it continues to make lower lows and lower highs. I will look for selling opportunities as the pair is oversold on the hourlies and in need of a little cooling off.

Trading Idea: 1.3100 was strong support and is now the resistance that I am looking to sell around. Tight stops, short targets at 1.3015, 1.2955 and 1.2915.

(click to enlarge)

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4-17-09

5:56a GMT – Bears continue to win out on the pair as a lower low and lower high were established yesterday. Our entry price was never reach but I did end up selling on a sustained break of 1.3200 and rode it down for a hundred pips or so. As always heading into the weekend I am even more cautious than usual as I don’t like leaving trades open over the weekend. I will look for selling opportunities near resistance at 1.3150 and 1.3200.

Trading Idea: Resistance at 1.3150 offers entry point on bearish candlestick confirmation. Tight stops, short targets preferred down to 1.3105, 1.3085 and 1.3055.

(click to enlarge)

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4-16-09

5:56a GMT – All targets hit on yesterday’s signal, but the pair quickly rebounded to 1.3265 area and has been ranging ever since. General consensus is for dollar strength but many are waiting for a significant rally to fade. My inclination is still bearish as the pair continues making lower lows and lower highs, so I will look to sell resistance with tight stops.

Trading Idea: Good resistance around 1.3265 that I will look to sell with good candlestick signals. Short targets preferred down to 1.3215, 1.3175 and eventually a challenge of 1.3100.

(click to enlarge)

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4-15-09

5:26a GMT – EUR/USD was bearish yesterday and continues to look overall bearish on dailies and hourly charts. Though I am overall bearish on the pair with strong support at 1.3215 I would consider buying a strong candlestick signal above 1.3200 but my inclination is to sell resistance around 1.3300.

Trading Idea: Selling preferred with best resistance around 1.3300. Short targets at 1.3260, 1.3215 and 1.3180.

(click to enlarge)

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