Archive For "April, 2009"

4-13-09

4:26a GMT – Banks are open this week and the signal remains nearly the same from Friday (when US banks were closed), though I’m moving my resistance up to 1.3195, or just under 1.3200. After making a new lower low last week the I am looking for the pair to continue its downturn in the short- to mid-term and will be selling resistance with tight stops.

Trading Idea: Shorts preferred near resistance with confirmation signals at 1.3195 with targets down to 1.3135, 1.3085 and 1.3015.

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4-10-09

5:26a GMT – For whatever reason I always dislike trading on Fridays, but we have a clearer signal today as the downtrend continued yesterday and the EUR/USD made a lower low to confirm the return to the downside. We have strong support around 1.3100 and while we could see bounces off of this (especially with the pair near oversold levels on all charts), a sustained break would open the way for further losses to the Euro.

Trading Idea: Short-term I am looking to sell resistance around 1.3180. Tight stops while the pair remains oversold, however that is normal in a trending market. Targets down to 1.3130 and 1.3075.

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4-9-09

5:26a GMT – Pair rebounded yesterday as the pair more or less treaded water over the past couple of days, though taking out our short in the process. It has so far been unable to sustain a break of resistance around 1.3300 and I am looking for selling signals around this area for today. Hourlies are heading toward overbought and yesterday we saw a nice doji on the 1-hour charts around resistance before a 100 pip drop so we will look for more of the same today. There is some event risk today as the Bank of England will anounce its interest rate at 7:00a EST. I don’t see this as having a major impact on the EUR/USD, though, as the BoE is largely expected to leave the interest rate alone and the EUR/USD pair rarely gets moved by the BoE rate decisions unless they are major. The FOMC is also due to release the meeting minutes later in the day (18:00p GMT) but no major surprises are expected.

Trading Idea: shorts preferred near 1.3305 resistance with targets down to 1.3255, 1.3225 and 1.3175. Tight stops, especially around above event risks. If resistance is broken look for a challenge of 1.3350.

(click to enlarge)

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4-8-09

5:16a GMT – EUR/USD bounced cleanly off of resistance yesterday for a good gain, and today the pair looks poised to continue the downtrend. Obviously the pair is making lower lows recently, but keeping me nervous the pair is entering an area of stronger support (1.3155 and 1.3120) and the RSI is showing oversold on the hourlies. However, I have to go with the trend and I will continue to sell in the short-term as traders look for safety in the dollar as stock markets around the globe continue their downtrend.

Trading Idea: Tight stops, selling resistance around 1.3225 with shorts preferred down to 1.3175, 1.3130 and 1.3090.

(click to enlarge)

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4-7-09

7:26a GMT – Good old speculative traders. It looks like early Sunday/Monday traders were able to sway the tables long enough to give us the nice bullish gap over the weekend, only to have real money look for safety in the dollar. Because of the bulls complete inability to keep the rally going for more than a few hours  I am looking to sell resistance in the short-term.

Trading Idea: look for bearish reversal signals around resistance at 1.3410 and 1.3495. Short targets preferred down to 1.3355, 1.3305 and 1.3265. Signals are somewhat mixed so keep stops tight.

(click to enlarge)

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4-6-09

5:26a GMT – EUR/USD started off the week with a bang is it popped above resistance around 1.3500 on a bullish gap opening. On the hourly charts the pair is just touching overbought levels on the RSI as traders rush to sell their dollar positions. These overbought levels probably will cause the pair to dip to gain a little buying breathing room, which will play well into my strategy of buying dips near support. Current support is around 1.3520, 1.3410 and 1.3350.

Trading Idea: In the short-term I will look for overbought levels to drive the pair down to support around 1.3520 and look for bullish reversal signals there. Longs preferred with targets back up to 1.3570, 1.3625 and 1.3660.

(click to enlarge)

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4-03-09

4:46a GMT – Another Friday and more mixed signals. Seems like we have a pattern developing here where Thursdays are always abnormal (against trend) and leave Friday’s with mixed signals. Anyways, yesterday we saw the EUR/USD with a 300 pip rise on a lower than expected rate cut from the European Central Bank. I’m showing the daily charts below as I think this gives us the best perspective on the pair. As you can see the pair is in a significant downtrend since mid-2008 and, although we have seen significant support above 1.2300 and 1.2500, any attemps to make a meaningful higher highs are beaten back by bears and so the practice I look for in general is to sell rallies.

In the mid-term I will still look to sell rallies, though with the strong mixed signals I’ll call it a week and pick up again on Monday :).

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4-2-09

5:19a GMT – EUR/USD continued to consolidate today in a tightening range between 1.3340 and 1.3100. Looking at the daily charts we can see the pair is still overall bearish. Tight stops should be used as we have seen sharp upward spikes in similiar situations in the past before ultimately heading back down (look at December on the dailies).

Trading Idea: Looking to sell rallies in the vicinity of 1.3325 with bearish candlestick or technical confirmation signals. Shorts preferred down to 1.3260, 1.3215 and 1.3170.

(click to enlarge)
 

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4-1-09

2:26a GMT – Nice pips yesterday as we a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern confirmed the sell around 1.3310 on the 4-hour charts. An additional bearish doji was seen on the 1-hour charts shortly after on the hourly charts around 1.3300. The pair found buyers above 1.3270 yesterday and has put the pair into a range between 1.3340 and 1.3100. I will continue to look for selling opportunities around 1.3310 resistance.

Trading Idea: look for bearish confirmations to short around 1.3310 with targets at 1.3275, 1.3215 and 1.3155.

As always a reminder that being a successful trader is not just about getting the trades right – it is about being smart with your stops and money! Read the “Learn Forex” articles on the left hand side!

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