Archive For "June, 2009"

Hello PipHutters, just a heads-up that I am traveling for the next couple of days (and I’ve been traveling for a few days if you are wondering why no signals have come out recently). I should be back and posting again by next week for sure, if not sooner.

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Thanks, and happy pipping!

6-24-9

4:06a GMT – Wild day in the land of forex. The pair rose of 200 pips on very little fundamental news – in fact futures have the rates remaining completely unchaged tomorrow. It appeared to be a classic short squeeze scenario (where pair rises against positions, hitting stops and thereby causing the pair to rise even faster) that never ended. Real resistance on the charts is not seen until 1.4150, though thankfully the pair has found some resistance at 1.4100 (but it by no means fell sharply back down). Technically I am still bearish on this pair – take a look at the 4-hour or daily charts and you can easily see the downtrend is still intact.

Trading Idea: I don’t trade news. I will stay put to see where the FOMC puts the rate and what their minutes say about the future. If I ignored the event risk I would look to short around 1.4100 as resistance has been found in this area and the RSI is heavily overbought.

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6-23-09

4:26a GMT – The Forex seas are still choppy after bearish day for the EUR/USD failed to break any major support or resistance areas. My main signal from yesterday (sell @ 1.3990) never came close to being hit, though I did sell the short-lived rally to 1.3900 and rode it down for a quick 50 pips with a 25 pip stop (2:1 money management for any beginner traders out there). Today I am looking for more of the same: sell rallies as bears continue to dominate. Dominating the minds of all traders right now is risk management, and sheltering in the USD is usually the safest option. Fostering the risk-aversion is the FOMC meeting, at which it is believed the Feds will keep the interest rate the same but their minutes regarding future policy and inflation will give traders some ammunition.

Trading Idea: Still looking to sell rallies. I would look into selling around 1.3900-1.3930 again on technical signal confirmation. Short targets at 1.39, 1.3850, 1.3820 and 1.3775.

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6-22-09

6:06a GMT – EUR/USD continues to hover in no man’s land, consolidating around 1.3900 (a level is has hit several times the past month). Overall the pair continues to look bearish as it hits lower lows and lower highs over the past 3 weeks, but most experts expect the pair to hit 1.4020-1.4050 before heading to the deep south. With the purple trend line below providing some downward pressure I’d be content to sell with a tight stop around 1.3090 at this point, and if that stop gets tripped look to resell a little higher up and save myself the pips in the middle.

Trading Idea: Looking for a test of 1.4015. Would sell 1.3090 on the way down or on bearish reversal candlestick. Short stops at 1.3960, 1.3910, 1.3855 and 1.3805.

(click to enlarge)

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6-18-09

4:46a GMT – As predicted the purple trend line (below) was quickly broken and resistance at the upper trend line was only able to hold for a moment, leading to a retest of 1.4000 (which was never reached). Pair is currently consolidating its gains below 1.4000 and I am expecting another surge to the 1.4020-1.4050 range where I will look to fade. Daily and 4-hour charts are neither oversold or overbought, while 60M charts are mildly overbought.

Trading Idea: Looking to fade a rally to the 1.4020-1.4040 range with short targets preferred down to 1.3965, 1.3935, 1.3855 and eventually 1.3800.

(click to enlarge)

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6-17-09

17:14 GMT – EUR/USD is consolidating as the market absorbs recent US stock market drops and forthecoming legislation from the Obama adminstration about financial market regulations. Technically we can see the pair continues to range, neither particularly overbought or oversold, in an increasingly triangular consolidation pattern. In  the short term I expect a breakout of the purple trendline below to lead to a test of the more solid light blue trend line currently around 1.3915. A breakout of the upper trend line could mean a re-test of 1.4020 while  a breakout of the lower trend would lead to a test of 1.3800 and 1.3750. Overall pair continues to be choppy between 1.3750 and 1.4020, most conservative move would be to wait for a break of these levels.

(click to enlarge)

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6-16-09

6:26a GMT – No trade entered yesterday as the pair never bounced off support or even remotely slowed down. USD gained a lot of ground as the US stocks plummeted and traders took their money out of stocks and “riskier” vehicles and took the relative safety of the dollar, driving the EUR/USD down. Pair has tipped the bull/bear scales now and is short-term bearish, the only problem is the oversold levels. It has come above 30 on the RSI and cooled off a little bit but it is still in oversold territory. Major threat to the short is a rally in stocks which would mean a sell-off of USD positions.

Trading Idea: Looking to short on rallies of the pair near resistance. Nearest resistance is at 1.3850 and possible 1.3820 (has bounced off this a few times the past hours). Tight stops, short targets at 1.3785, 1.3745 and eventually a challenge of 1.3700.

(click to enlarge)

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6-15-09

6:16a GMT – Pair is still extremely mixed in the short and mid-term charts, however since the pair is near the bottom of its range I will look for buying opportunities near support in the short term. Pair is also touching oversold ont he 60min charts.  I will use tight stops and look to buy either on the way up or on a bounce.

Trading Idea: Near support is at 1.3930 with preferred long targets at 1.3970, 1.4015 and 1.4095.

(click to enlarge)

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6-11-09

4:46a GMT – Signals are about as mixed as they come right with the EUR/USD pair for the short and mid-term. The 1-hour charts look bearish, the 4-hour charts look bullish and the daily charts are anyone’s guess. And with all three of those timeframes the RSI is about as dead middle as they come (hovering around 50) meaning the pair is neither overbought or oversold. So while the pair is up in the air like this I will either look to buy or sell on a strong candlestick signal near support or resistance.

Trading Idea: We have resistance at 1.4050 and support at 1.3900. I would look to buy or sell either on a good bounce/failure or on a solid candlestick. Extremely tight stops. The best option is probably to sit this one out and wait for better signals ;).

(click to enlarge)

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6-10-09

5:48a GMT – Yesterday’s first short target was hit for 80 pips, but the pair was not able to sustain any momentum and quickly returned to the upside. It broke well above 1.4050 and stalled below 1.4100 as the pair approached overbought levels. I will look to buy dips when the pair cools off a little, near support around 1.4000.

Trading Idea: Looking to buy support near 1.4000 with long targets preferred to 1.4045, 1.4085 and 1.4125. I would also consider buying a break of 1.4115 for 50 pips. Tight stops.

(click to enlarge)

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