Archive For "June, 2009"

6-9-09

5:26a GMT – EUR/USD has been under heavy pressure recently as the USD is again looking like a safe-haven for investors. While the pair still looks long-term bullish in the short term I have to go short. We have had several days now of lower lows and lower highs. Technically the pair would look  a lot more bearish if a sustained break of 1.3800 were to occur, but until then I will use very tight stops.

Trading Idea: Looking to fade rallies near close resistance at 1.3950, with short targets preferred at 1.3870, 1.3820 and 1.3765.

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6-5-09

4:59a GMT – EUR/USD is giving mixed signals leading into Friday. After days of higher highs and higher lows we had a significantly lower low and lower high yesterday as the pair as the pair continued to struggle under the 1.43350 resistance. Fundamentally we have had an increase in risk-acceptance over the past few weeks as big money continues to take their money out of the safety of the dollar and put it into riskier investments such as stocks. Heading into the weekend it would not surprise me if we saw some of those positions liquidated into cash and a spike in the dollar. Either way, their has been a definite up trend in the mid-term though this significant stall has given enough reason to expect at least a bit more consolidation heading into the weekend.

Trading Idea: Tight stops on everything, I will look for stalls to sell around 1.4230 and 1.4330 in the short-term targeting another challenge of 1.4100. I will also look to buy a bounce off of 1.4100 with targets at the short’s resistance levels. Caution advised on both trades. Use multiple indicators.

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6-5-09

8:26a GMT – Booked nice pips yesterday off the long dip.  Technically we did have a higher high and higher low still yesterday – though it was only by a few pips on both ends! We’ve rebounded slightly going into Thursday so the trend is still bullish and as such I will look to reset longs on support bounces.

Trading Idea: Closest support is around 1.4100 and I will look to reset longs on another bounce. Tight stops, targets back to 1.4165, 1.4235 and 1.4295. On a break of 1.4090 look for a re-challenge of 1.4050 and 1.4000.

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6-3-09

5:08a GMT – Good thing I didn’t go against my system yesterday – all targets were hit off of the bounce above 1.4090 for a quick 130 pip gain. Today is much of the same story. Even though the pair is very overbought and I want to sell I will buy on dips with the trend, but continue to use tight stops.

Trading Idea:  Closest support areas to look for bounces are at 1.4250 and 1.4200. From their look for long targets at 1.4295 and 1.4330 and 1.4365. Tight stops. Would also consider taking a break of 1.4340 long.

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6-2-09

5:06a GMT – Booked nice pips off the long break of 1.4175 yesterday. Looking at the charts today I really wanted to see a sell signal. We are overbought on a lot of long term charts, nearing longer-term resistance. We broke through a supportive trendline. And while all those indicators may point south I am primarily a trend trader so I have to stick with what works for me. Since the trend is definitely to the upside I will look for buying opportunities on dips. I will however limit risk severely with tight stops (20-25 pips).

Trading Idea: Nearest support at 1.4090 offers an opportunity to reset a long on a bounce. Tight stops, looking for a retest of 1.4145, 1.4190 and 1.4235. On a break of 1.4090 look for a retest of 1.4050 and 1.4000.

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6-1-09

5:36a GMT – It was a busy week for me last week and only a few signals got sent out as a result! First off PipHut got taken offline for a day due to a technical problem, I’m going to be moving across the country and yesterday I got attacked by ants as I was washing my car – hopefully this week is better!

On the charts last week we saw the bulls push upwards relentlessly as dollar hawks were left wondering what went wrong. As those of you who follow PipHut know I generally trade trends and the trend for the EUR/USD is definitely upwards in the short and mid-term right now. My major concern with the trend is the overbought levels. Here are the RSI readings for various timeframes right now: 60min  66; 4-hour 67; Daily 69; Weekly – 60. What concerns me the most is the longer-term overbought levels. The last several times we saw those readings on the daily and weekly (not to mention the monthly) we’ve seen some pretty steep drops. So far the Euro bulls have managed to hold steady but some cooling off is bound to happen – the question is will it happen now or after another major bull run?

Trading Idea: Sticking with the trend in the short-term and will look to buy a bounce near support at 1.4050 or 1.4000. Tight stops given above concerns. I would also consider buying a break above 1.4175 for a quick 50 pips or so.

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