Archive For "July, 2009"

7-15-09

4:58a GMT – Nearly a picture perfect trade setup yesterday as price just touched our resistance at 1.4010 then dropped to our second target level for an 85 pip gain. Pair has since rallied back to 1.3985 levels. I am still overall bullish on the USD (and therefore bearish on the EUR/USD) as markets are risk-averse so I am looking to re-tool near resistance.

Trading Idea: Nearest support at 1.4000 and 1.4015, will look for bearish reversal and RSI overbought signals near here. If none are found will wait for another re-challenge of the rising blue trendline. Targets at 1.3985, 1.3955, 1.3925 and 1.3885.

(click to enlarge)

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7-14-09

4:36a GMT – Our first target from yesterday’s signal was hit for 55 pips profit (off of 1.3075 resistance), lot closed and second lot brought to break-even. Unfortunately pair turned north again and position was knocked out but for no-loss. Today the EUR/USD is caught in a rising channel, which looks to me like a big consolidation pattern so I am expecting more pressure on the upside trendline resistance.

Trading Idea: look for selling opportunities near trendline resistance, currently around 1.4010. Targets at 1.3955, 1.3925 and 1.3885. Cover on a 1.3950 bounce.

(click to enlarge)

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7-13-09

5:41a GMT – First off everyone checkout the forex signals glossary I put up here! I tried to include everything I could think of to help out the newer trader who is trying to decipher my analysis but let me know if I missed anything. For today I expect risk-aversion to continue to dominate the markets, and for the USD to follow catch up to the yen in this regard. As such I expect the EUR/USD to remain under pressure for most of the day and will look to sell rallies to capitalize on this. Nearest resistance areas are at 1.3950 and 1.3975, the 38.2% and 50% fib retracement (respectively) from the 1.4070-1.3880 drop.

Trading Idea: look for bearish reversal signals near above resistance levels for entry signals with short targets preferred down to 1.3920, 1.3885 and 1.3855.

(click to enlarge)

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Hey PipHutters, I’m finally going to get started on the long-promised “Forex Signals Glossary” today. This has long been requested as a lot of the standard forex terms and language I use in my signals is hard to understand for new traders. I’m going to cover everything I can think of but if there is a term you definitely want me to define/help you understand what the heck I mean then shout it out below in the comments section and I’ll try and include that!

Happy pipping,

Mark

7-9-09

5:26a GMT – Booked good pips off of selling the EUR/USD on rallies yesterday, and following basically the same strategy today. EUR/USD continues to make lower highs and lower lows over the past several days, further confirming the downward bias. US stocks however have been hit very hard over the past several days and a threat to short trades are the possible of a retracement on US stocks, taking money out of the safety of the dollar. Mid-term USD outlook remains bullish.

Trading Idea: Near resistance for selling entries at 1.3915 and 1.3935, with targets at 1.3890, 1.3855 and 1.3815.

(click to enlarge)

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7-8-09

5:56a GMT – As expected the US dollar made gains against the greenback yesterday as traders looked to find relative safety in the dollar vs. other investment vehicles. Pair made a textbook clean drop after touching our resistance level at 1.4050 for some nice pips. I expect more of the same for today, after perhaps a brief rally/bounceback in the asian markets to clear oversold positions.

Trading Idea: Still looking to sell rallies near resistance, now at 1.3950 and 1.4000. Short targets at 1.3915, 1.3880 and 1.3830.

(click to enlarge)

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7-7-09

6:16a GMT – The EUR/USD, as expected, made a bearish move to 1.3875, but has since rebounded to just below resistance at 1.4000 (pair currently at 1.3970). These moves basically followed US stocks during the US session – as stock lost value midday the dollar gained strength and as the stocks moved into the positive area (barely) the dollar also lost its value. I am still overall bearish on the pair and will continue to sell at resistance, and we have several layers of resistance above current price action.

Trading Idea: Nearest resistance is at 1.4000, with 1.4025 and 1.4050 above that all provide downward pressure. Be wary of a short squeeze around the lower levels especially. Shorts preferred with targets at 1.3955, 1.3905 and eventually 1.3850.

(click to enlarge)

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7-6-09

5:26a GMT – I hope everyone had a great Fourth of July weekend! I did, and I also had a good vacation last week. Before I get to today’s signal I wanted to quickly address the discussion that took place at the bottom of my “gone this week” post last week. First off, I appreciate that anyone would value PipHut and my signals enough that they would be upset when I go on vacation or take time away from the site. As some of the other users pointed out though (and I appreciate the support) is that since PipHut is completely free and a one-man operation, I don’t have a team of analysts that take over in my absence. And since PipHut doesn’t pay my bills and I have no intention of making it a paid-service it will stay that way. My thanks goes out to all those who understood and appreciate the site and work I have put up for you. Enough of that, on to the signal!

Since my last signal on June 24th the pair has basically ranged between 1.4200-1.3900 as the pair consolidates in this area. Most time frames are decidedly mixed as the pair on the weeklies appears bearish, the dailies are mostly bearish but you could make an argument for the bulls as well, and the 4-hour is as mixed as they come. To help find some direction in the market we will turn to the fundamentals, and the name of the game right now is risk-aversion. The US was hit with some worse than expected news last week, including unemployment, and once-again investors are taking money out of riskier stocks and into the relative safety of the dollar. This coming week I expect more of the same, and while we might get a lot of ranging and volatility I am generally dollar bullish the coming week, and therefor I will look to sell the EUR/USD on rallies.

Trading Idea: Nearest resistance to look for selling signals is below 1.4050, with next resistance not seen until 1.4200. I will look for selling opportunities near these levels, preferably with the pair in overbought territory on the 60M or 4-hour charts. Short targets preferred down to 1.4000, 1.3965 and 1.3900.

(click to enlarge)

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