Archive For "September, 2009"

9-30-09

4:23a GMT – Well I made some good pips yesterday off some of my other pairs and trades but we missed our entry signal at 1.4680 as the pair shot down around 1.4650 after the signal. Today’s signal is a little bit trickier as we touched good support yesterday at the 50% fibonacci retracement of 9/4/09 – 9/23/09, just below 1.4530. The pair bounced hard almost 100 pips back to 1.4620 where it is currently. Short-term outlook is still bearish, but the bounce off of the 50% retracement is enough to give me pause. I will still look to sell rallies but with tight stops.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell near resistance on a failure of 1.4650 or 1.4680. Short targets from 1.4680 are 1.4650, 1.4620 and 1.4665.

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9-29-09

6:26a GMT – It has been a long day with some of the computer issues I’ve had (never try and install Windows 7 unless you have to!) but back at the signals! Got some good pips yesterday off the failure below 1.4680 but the pair has met some firmer support around the 1.4560 area. I am still biased to the downside but I will be cautious and use tight stops, targeting another failure of the 1.4680 resistance area.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell a failure signal below 1.4680 with short targets back down to 1.4645, 1.4605 and 1.4580. If 1.4680 is broken look for a challenge of 1.4720.

(click to enlarge)

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9-29-09

4:260 GMT – (quick note on the chart below: ignore the dashed lines. One of my computers crashed and I’ve had to move some of my other trades to this computer). Well, we came off a great week of trading last week to an interesting week ahead. We will need to tread carefully around the news event risks this week starting with the US consumer confidence report on Tuesday. Until then I am looking for more US gains as their are still plenty of bullish USD technical signals (which is a bearish EUR/USD signal). In just the past few hours since opening the EUR/USD has dropped almost 100 pips, breaking through support at 1.4620. I will look to re-enter the market on failed rallies, preferably near resistance.

Trading Idea: Nearest resistance I will be looking at is 1.4680 and then 1.4720 if that doesn’t hold. Short targets from 1.4680 are 1.4650, 1.4620 and 1.4570. Looking to sell failures or candlestick bearish signals.

(click to enlarge)

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9-24-09

4:16a GMT – Trade worked out beautifully yesterday as all targets were hit, stops were never even threatened and we walk away with 130 pips+ on the trade. Not bad. The pair also broke rising trendline support (blue line below) which signals more bearish news and we will look to reset shorts on a rally, preferably up to support in the 1.4725 range. It is Friday though so I won’t hold onto the trade for too long.

Trading Idea: Looking to sell into rallies, preferably near support at 1.4720, or if that is smashed through I will look near the former rising support now resistance (blue line below). From 1.4720 the short targets are 1.4685, 1.4645 and 1.4620.

(click to enlarge)

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9-24-09

4:26a GMT – The dollar gained some strength yesterday after bears got some news that made them willing to bet on the dollar again. Specifically the fact that the government is going to continue to extend their spending programs is news that the US economy is not as peachy as previously though took away some of the risk appetite. It wasn’t much in the way of news but I personally think the EUR/USD was overbought and investors were just looking for a reason to take some profits and correct the price a little bit. Fundamentally nothing much changed, technically we saw a drop to the 23.6% fibonacci retracement level at 1.4686, which was also where the rising trendline (in blue below) happened to be. The pair has found a little support there but I will look to sell a break of that blue trendline or a failure below 1.4800. A “failure” of 1.4800 means the price goes up toward that level but gets stopped by resistance and we see some sort of bearish reversal confirmation signal (candlestick, etc.).

Trading Idea: Looking to sell a break of blue trend support line currently at 1.4710 but rising, or sell a failure below 1.4800. From 1.48 short targets are 1.4730, 1.4690, 1.4655 and 1.4620.

(click to enlarge)

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9-23-09

6:09a GMT – I am about to break one of my personal rules of trading: I’m going to trade against the obvious trend. Let me explain: the EUR/USD is definitely in a bullish trend right now. Simply glance at any hourly or daily chart and the pair goes from the bottom left to the top right. No need to talk about the higher highs and higher lows – it is that obvious. But the pair has been rising for weeks now with little to no correction as risk appetite returns to the markets in general, so a correction will occur eventually, even if it is just an extended consolidation of the recent gains. But what signals me to start thinking short now, instead of a a few days ago, is that we are approaching key resistance around 1.4870. If you back out to the weekly chart you can see the EUR/USD has been in a slide since 7/2008. Since then we’ve seen a possible double bottom form above 1.2300. The resistance that must be broken to complete this pattern is – you guessed it! 1.4870. And while I think this resistance may or may not be broken in the future, I think that below 1.4900 we are going to see a good enough of a bounce to make some pips off of it.  Just a warning – if you read PipHut often you know I always, always trade with the trend and it is very rare for me to do so. 99/100 times I say trade with the trend. And I might be wrong here. We will see!

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that I will not be trading for a few hours before and at least an hour after the Fed rate change decision at 18:15GMT. While no change is expected, their comments about the future of the dollar can always drive the markets and the markets aren’t usually as liquid during these times.

Trading Idea: I am looking to sell in the resistance zone under 1.4870 with some sort of technical confirmation (candlestick, etc.), with short targets at 1.4830 and 1.4770. Shorts will be fairly tight as this is against the trend and risky. Conservative and new traders would be advised to sit it out, wait for good dips to buy on or, of course, practice on a demo account.

(click to enlarge)

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9-22-09

4:26a GMT – Closed out the long position yesterday after 50 pips profit. Currently we are getting mixed signals from the EUR/USD. While the uptrend technically remains intact we had another day of lower lows and lower highs, and you can tell from looking at the chart below that the pair has been in a bearish consolidation channel since bouncing off resistance around 1.4760. However this channel was broken in the last 12 hours so we are at a retest of 1.4760 most likely. Fundamentally though the news out of the US continues to get better with more leading indicators show the US recovery is on firmer footing. This could mean a return to risk appetite and the demise of the dollar. However I think investors are still nervous and may react buy covering some of their recent profits. Either way a bounce off of 1.4760 could for a double-top but that is probably a couple days away. Long story short signals are mixed. I think we are looking at a retest of 1.4760 and there will be some shorting opportunities in this area for the aggressive trader. I trade with the trend though so will be sitting out for this setup and this pair.

Trading Idea: Aggressive traders could look to sell a bounce off of 1.4760 (or buy a confirmed break of it), with short targets at 1.4725, 1.4685 and 1.4650.

(click to enlarge)

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9-21-09

4:26a GMT – I am nervous about the long-term, overbought nature of the EUR/USD right now but technically speaking the hourly charts are offering very attractive bullish signals. As you can tell just at a glance on the 4-hour chart below the EUR/USD is in a strong uptrend, with little to no corrective swings taking place last week. Currently the pair is making a consolidation wedge between the trend resistance (yellow line on chart below) and 1.4650.

Trading Idea: I will look for buying opportunities around 1.4650 or on a breakout of trend resistance. Long targets to 1.4685, 1.4725 and 1.4760.

(click to enlarge)

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9-18-09

4:45a GMT -  The USD took a beating this week though the EUR/USD pair finally seemed to find some firmer resistance around 1.4750. The pair is tied very closely with risk appetite right now. As risk appetite increases we see the EUR/USD increase along with US stocks. As risk aversion creeps in we see stocks take a hit and USD gain ground against the Euro. As a trend trader I will continue to look for longs in this market until I have a good technical reason not to.

Trading Idea: I am traveling this weekend so I will not be trading this Friday, but for those that are I would look for longs in support areas around 1.4680 and 1.4650, targeting 1.4720 and 1.4755.

(click to enlarge)

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9-17-09

4:52a GMT – Bulls kept charging ahead yesterday to just above my target of 1.4720 – unfortunately the pair never dipped low enough for my entry around 1.4620 to get triggered! I feel like a broken record with the signals for this week but here we go again: I think the pair is overbought, I think US stocks are overbought, but until the rest of the market thinks that it doesn’t really matter what I think! So we will continue to trade with the trend. I think we will see some more cooling off today though to support in the 1.4620-1.4650 range where I will look to reset longs. Tight stops as any reversal at this point could be a big one.

Trading Idea: Looking to buy near support zone between 1.4620-1.4650 with targets back up to 1.4685, 1.4720 and 1.4745. If 1.4600 is broken and US stocks take dive then I may look for a short back down to 1.4530.

(click to enlarge)

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