9-16-09
4:26a GMT – Well our longs yesterday at 1.4565 were profitable to the tune of 100+ pips and there is no technical reason to assume anything but more upward and onward movement from the EUR/USD pair. We had another day of high highs and higher lows, more resistance at 1.4650 and next resistance isn’t seen until the 1.4720-50 zone. Personally I think stocks and the Euro are overbought given fundamentals but who am I to determine such things?
Trading Idea: Still looking to buy dips, this time near support around 1.4620 with a challenge to 1.4675 and 1.4720.
(click to enlarge)
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September 16, 2009 at 06:04
Okay I know what Im doing wrong Mark…. I am making orders FAR too early! I feel so stupid!! Your signal is very straight forward, so Im gonna wait until t goes down to 1.4620 and THEN buy.
September 16, 2009 at 08:04
Thanks for your signals, it gives me a clear direction before taken position .Keep up the good work.
September 16, 2009 at 08:07
My own problem is my stops. Cant afford to use large stops like 50 pips, but is it not possible when it goes down to 1.4620 market condition must have changed?I would like to know what indicators do you use to make your judgments?
September 16, 2009 at 13:32
I would recommend using a micro account then (where 1 pip = $1 USD) so that you can use stops up to 50 pips and only risk $50 USD on it. I do use trading strategies that use only 30 and 25 pips as well (and sometimes I do on these signals) for my personal breakout strategies but I don’t publish those signals to PipHut – yet. I am in the works of rolling out a specific signals for all the major currency pairs within a month!
A quick side note here too – if you are looking to only risk very little (10-20 pips) and yet get huge gains off of each trade you are going to be sorely disappointed with forex trading. There are no holy grail or “silver bullet” trading systems out there and anyone who tells you they have one is lying to you. People sell those sorts of promises all the time and you just get left with more losses plus the cost of their admission!
September 16, 2009 at 08:56
your tp is 1.4720 not too high???
September 16, 2009 at 09:57
I also can’t afford to use large stops, can you also give tips for trading smaller timeframes like 1 hour?
September 16, 2009 at 13:36
Hey Andy I can tell you this – some of the signals I will be releasing next month use 25-30 pip stops.
September 16, 2009 at 12:59
When goes down to 1.4620 ?
September 16, 2009 at 14:10
what indicators do you use for your analysis?
September 16, 2009 at 14:18
These days I try to use as few as possible! I’ve used a lot over the years, most notably I heavily used RSI and Slow Stochastics for a long time. I found that for me, personally, they always ended up hurting me more than helping me. They confused my root analysis, provided too many false signals and in the end did my harm than good. The only one I still occasionally use is the ATR in placing stops. That is not to say that indicators are bad for all people/trading strategies. But for me they don’t fit my trading personality. I might take it a step further and say a lot of people fall in love with the idea of indicators because they believe it will tell them exactly when to enter, when to exit and trading will be easy. And indicators will never do all that for you.
September 16, 2009 at 14:54
Thanks for your advice it has been improving my trading and confidence, but I use a custom indicator which has the RSI, Stoch and CCI all in one window for different time frames. You can edit its properties and no need for scanning through the whole time frames. It gives you all you want in one window. It only gives two signals BUY or SELL for the above indicators. In the morning(4-5 AM gmt) before you release your signals I do check the indicator and it rhymes with what you have on your signals. Do you have a detailed manual about your analysis without using all those indicators?
September 16, 2009 at 15:01
The closest I have to a “detailed manual” are the “Learn Forex” links I have on the left of your screen, in particular the Learn Support and Resistance lesson as support and resistance are the key ingredients. If it is something you can email send that indicator to admin@piphut.com and I’ll take a look at it and give you my feedback. I can even code an EA (expert advisor) for it and backtest it over the past 10 years and let you know how it performs.
September 16, 2009 at 15:00
Hey Mark. Do you think is it STILL gonna head down to 1.4620? It’s 12:00 at night here and I have to get sleepin’ but it’s jumped away up. Shall I set a pending order or just leave it for today?
September 16, 2009 at 15:05
If I were you I would put a pending order in a DEMO account and see how it does. I personally don’t like trading while I’m asleep but that is just my style :).
September 16, 2009 at 15:10
Damn. I waited ALL day long only for it to go up. Theres only two days left to trade and I have to wait until Monday to start trading again.
I also find that the market moves alot when Im bed sleeping….
September 16, 2009 at 15:19
I have sent it
September 16, 2009 at 15:22
Got it. It might be a few days or possibly even early next week (I’m traveling this weekend) before I can really dive into and code a expert advisor for it to backtest it but I will let you know.
September 17, 2009 at 00:05
hi Mark! I’m a bit curious how long will this uptrend last.It looks like the EUR are well overbought. Plus theres some good news from Obama that brought forward some attention from the investors regarding the US economy. How this will effect the greenback from your technical overview?
September 17, 2009 at 02:17
If I knew when the uptrend would end I’d be living on my own private island right now, sipping cocktails :). Kidding aside I think it will last as long as risk appetite is in the market, and I think that will last as long as positive news keeps coming out of the US economy. Eventually though the paper printing of the US Fed has to end, unemployment will still be high and I think we will see risk aversion re-enter the market and the dollar will recover some.