9-29-09
4:260 GMT – (quick note on the chart below: ignore the dashed lines. One of my computers crashed and I’ve had to move some of my other trades to this computer). Well, we came off a great week of trading last week to an interesting week ahead. We will need to tread carefully around the news event risks this week starting with the US consumer confidence report on Tuesday. Until then I am looking for more US gains as their are still plenty of bullish USD technical signals (which is a bearish EUR/USD signal). In just the past few hours since opening the EUR/USD has dropped almost 100 pips, breaking through support at 1.4620. I will look to re-enter the market on failed rallies, preferably near resistance.
Trading Idea: Nearest resistance I will be looking at is 1.4680 and then 1.4720 if that doesn’t hold. Short targets from 1.4680 are 1.4650, 1.4620 and 1.4570. Looking to sell failures or candlestick bearish signals.
(click to enlarge)
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September 28, 2009 at 05:19
i’m very new here, bt i’m tryn as much as possible to follow your findings. if we are sure its going up to 1.4680, we kan put up a buy right, since is about 1.4600 now
September 28, 2009 at 17:22
Some traders try that but it is not my style. I prefer to trade with the trend as those are higher percentage trades in my experience. I’d rather miss out on the upswing than get caught on the wrong side of one.
September 28, 2009 at 06:06
Mark,from the above chart if those dashed line are pending orders, then there are no stops loss? I can only see target1 and target2
September 28, 2009 at 13:22
quick note to everyone: ignore the dashed lines, they are NOT part of the analysis. That being said I always use stop losses. In this case the first red line was the stop loss – it had been moved up to lock in the profit (the sell limit had already been triggered).
September 28, 2009 at 06:54
AUSTINE
THIS IS MY 3RD DAY WITH MARK. TRUST HIM – HE KNOWS BEST. IF YOU BUY AGAINST THE TREND THEN WATCH YOUR TRADE OR YOU STAND TO LOOSE. REMEMBER THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.
September 28, 2009 at 07:06
you think it can go up 1.4680???? then down???
September 28, 2009 at 13:25
Of course! Do me a favor, back out to the 1 hour or 4 hour timeframe. See that up and down motion of the pair? They call that zig-zag. EUR/USD does it all the time. And, after a major trend gets bucked (like we are seeing here with the EUR/USD, it is better to set conservative entry points and not enter at all than to “be afraid of missing out” and get caught on the wrong end of a price move. I think we are getting close to 1.4680 now… seeing some congestion at the moment.
September 28, 2009 at 07:14
What indicators say EURUSD is still up strong? Mine all say down.
September 28, 2009 at 13:28
Payton, sorry: bullish indicators for the USD, which means bearish indicators for the EUR/USD. But if you wanted to see bullish indicators for the EUR/USD just back your chart out to the daily or weekly timeframe and pull up any moving average. Still in a strong uptrend according to those.
September 28, 2009 at 07:40
I have to say your signals and strategies both are good.
September 28, 2009 at 12:46
Whats the recommended stop loss for this trade?
September 28, 2009 at 13:02
Hey Mark,
I’ve been following your signals for about 5 months now, and just wanted to thank you for sharing your analysis. To everyone else, I hope you’re using his analysis to learn versus just follow, because if he stops posting, you’re screwed. Either way, thanks and keep up the good work!
September 28, 2009 at 13:29
You’re welcome Tim and you hit the nail on the head: this site is about learning to trade, not me just telling you exactly how to trade. Give a man a fish…
September 28, 2009 at 13:28
Thank you for being kind enough as to share
September 28, 2009 at 14:25
MARK
I’M APPLYING YOUR TEACHINGS TO OTHER PAIRS AND SINCE FRIDAY TILL THIS MORNING I HAD A GREAT TRADE OF 357 PIPS EUR/JPY (BEING IN THE MARKET OVER THE WEEKEND!).THANKS TO YOU!
RE EUR/USD I WAS OF THE OPINION THAT 1.4670 WOULD BE THE RESISTANCE OF THE DAY THUS ENTERING THE MARKET AT 1.4650 (SL 1.4686) AND A BREAK OF THE MA(20) NOW I’M WATCHING WITH ANTICIPATION
September 28, 2009 at 14:34
After a potential major reversal I use pretty conservative entry points as the pair could still range pretty good and kick out my stops if I enter to early. Though at least one of my systems entered around 1.4625 and it is usually pretty profitable…
September 28, 2009 at 16:32
Thanks for the insights Mark. Is there any sight that you may suggest to get a better handle of Technical Analysis?
September 28, 2009 at 16:52
Spot on Mark. I am +45 pips now. Thank you. Your analysis plus the book you suggested helped me so much
September 28, 2009 at 17:02
I didn’t do it. I have placed an entry trade at exact 1.4680. It was never exicuted. I am really surprised.
September 28, 2009 at 17:14
Priya i have same “problem”, higest point was 1,46775 from that was going direct down to 1,46200. How that some can buy at 1,468 and some of us dont? thanks
September 28, 2009 at 17:19
Priya/Sam: It wasn’t that for some the price went higher, others just entered earlier. It depends on the stop-loss you are willing to live with (for information on setting stops read my money management article on the left). For example if you want your stop to be above resistance at 1.4720 and are OK with a 50-pip stop than you could enter at 1.4670 to make sure you get in on the trade. If you are trying for a smaller stop-loss, say 30 pips with the SL at 1.4710 then you might try and wait until 1.4680.
As always PipHut is about giving you another resource to learn how to trade better – not to trade for you.
September 28, 2009 at 18:11
Thank you Mark, I am also still a learner. I am trying to understand how these trades move. Sometimes I think I got it, then the trade goes in the opposite direction. I want to understand it. I will never give up.
September 28, 2009 at 22:42
Mark i want to say that your signals help us very much to learn to be good traders like you ,thenks so much man