Archive For "September, 2009"

9-16-09

4:26a GMT – Well our longs yesterday at 1.4565 were profitable to the tune of 100+ pips and there is no technical reason to assume anything but more upward and onward movement from the EUR/USD pair. We had another day of high highs and higher lows, more resistance at 1.4650 and next resistance isn’t seen until the 1.4720-50 zone. Personally I think stocks and the Euro are overbought given fundamentals but who am I to determine such things?

Trading Idea: Still looking to buy dips, this time near support around 1.4620 with a challenge to 1.4675 and 1.4720.

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9-15-09

5:26a GMT – Technically speaking the signals are clear – there is a strong uptrend in place with higher highs, higher lows and is easily identifiable on any chart timeframe you look at. Should be easy right? Risk aversion has begun creeping back into the market, however, and tomorrow I will be closing watching the US stocks. If we see a rally in stocks we will most likely see the EUR/USD go upwards. If we see a pullback in stocks  we should see the dollar gain some ground against the Euro. In the meantime, however, I trade with the trend to the upside.

Trading Idea: Technically the trend is up so we have to look for dips to buy on. Nearest support is 1.4565 and 1.4500. Look for long ragets at 1.4610, 1.4650 and 1.4695.

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9-14-09

5:254a GMT – I hope everyone had a great weekend! They always seem too short.. Back to the forex signals! Last week we saw tremendous losses in the USD as risk appetite crept back into the market on news that US banks were once again hitting big profits. We saw US stocks rise a lot (to overbought levels in my opinion) and the dollar tank against most major currencies. Since then it has stalled out around resistance zone above 1.4600 and fallen back to 1.4520 levels. Under 1.4650 I am looking for risk aversion to creep back into the market as I don’t yet believe the fundamentals support all the rosy outlooks and for USD gains.

Trading Idea: Look for selling opportunities near resistance either at 1.4565 or 1.4620 with short targets preferred at 1.4530, 1.4480 and 1.4550.

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9-11-09

4:21a GMT -  What a week! EUR/USD has rallied hard against most fundamental expectations, causing many to re-evaluate what these latest bullish signals mean for the long-term. Some experts say this is the start of an inflationary period for the dollar and this is how the year will end (with dollar weakness). Others believe this is an extinction burst before we see a double-dip on the EUR/USD, US stocks and the world economy in general. So as short-term, technical traders what do we do? We look at the charts and we stick to what we know! And what we know is to trade with the trend. The EUR/USD has made higher highs and higher lows over the past several days so the trend is up. Currently the pair is knocking on the door of 1.4600.

Trading Idea: Trend is up and I am looking for buying opportunities. I would buy a sustained break of 1.4615 or a dip with candlestick confirmation to support above 1.4500. At 1.4500 targets are 1.4555 and 1.4615. With a break above 1.4615 I’m looking for 1.4660 and 1.4695.

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9-10-09

4:40a GMT – By the way to all, to “fade” a rally just means to “sell” a rally on the way down. What it implies is that the pair has jumped up and is now on its way down, so as the rally is “fading” you take a short position with the idea that the main thrust upward has taken place. It helps to not get stuck on the wrong side of a false breakout. EUR/USD did continue its upward thrust today, and while we did “fade” the 1.4590 thrust a recovery has been limited by support at 1.4530. Though I think the US dollar is oversold from a fundamental standpoint the technicals signal a bullish picture of the EUR/USD so I will look for opportunities to buy into dips.

Trading Idea: I’d like a more significant dip to buy into, perhaps near support above 1.4400. At that stage I will feel more comfortable buying with long targets at 1.4450, 1.4515, and 1.4565.

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9-9-09

4:55a GMT – Happy 9/9/9! I hope apple’s ipod announcement today is exciting. I hope even more that these mixed signals coming from the forex market and from EUR/USD in particular start to take a little more shape. As I mentioned earlier the pair shot up almost 200 pips. I did take the short at 1.4525 and rode it down for a quick 50 pips, and my trading strategy for today is pretty much the same – fade rallies and buy dips. I don’t think the EUR/USD has enough steam, fundamentally or technically to push much higher but I don’t see it taking a dive any time soon either. So signals point to some range trading opportunities.

Trading Idea: On the topside we have resistance at 1.4550, which could be faded with targets at 1.4505, 1.4455 and 1.4405. And at 1.4400 we have support (with a little bit firmer support at 1.4370 so be careful here) that could be bought for a challenge of 1.4450, and 1.4495 and 1.4535.

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9-08-09

16:00a GMT – Well it looks like patience might pay off after I delayed the signal until the start of New York session. I was waiting for some signs as to direction of the pair after the Labor Day weekend in the States and direction is what I got. Extreme volatility in the pair made it jump up almost 200 pips as it made fresh 2009 highs peaking just about 1.4500. Interesting to note that the US stock markets did not share in the extreme rally (though I think US stocks are overpriced already) which has been the pattern of late with risk aversion being the main theme. With gold flirting with 1000 and oil up to 70 USD/barrel this could be the beginning of a serious inflation problem for the greenback. With the new higher high in place I will look to buy dips near support though with the pair so overbought I would also look to sell another pierce upward.

Trading Idea: Nearest support is at 1.4400 and then 1.4365. I will look to set longs on a bounce off of these support areas with targets at 1.4455, 1.4495 and 1.4525. With the RSI heavily overbought (was at almost 90 for hourlies) I would also look to sell another run into resistance between 1.4520-1.4550, with short targets back down to 1.4425.

(click to enlarge)

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9-08-09

6:26a GMT – Just wanted to give everyone a heads up as to why they are not getting their usual forex signal from PipHut about now – given the holiday yesterday and the erratic price movements recently I am waiting for the open of the US Markets tomorrow morning for some signals as to the direction of the market.

Trading Idea: waiting for open of US markets at 12:00 GMT for forex signals.

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9-04-09

4:26a GMT – It’s been a pretty good week for trading. EUR/USD remained fairly predictable with the signals and tradeable with good money management techniques. News events didn’t shake the markets too much – in fact volatility as a whole is down. Yesterday’s signal is in the profit after resistance at 1.4350 held our stop. Maybe I’m just getting negative but it seems like the quiet before the storm. My overall bias is still down, and IF I trade today it will be in that direction, but with the long weekend approaching it will have to be a good setup to get me interested. For the more aggressive of you here is the daily trade idea:

Trading Idea: Overall bias is still down under 1.4400, and selling opportunities can be found at nearest resistance around 1.4300 or (possibly) 1.4350. Short targets down to 1.4255 and 1.4200.

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9-03-09

4:50a GMT – Some mixed signals coming off the EUR/USD yesterday as the pair charged through resistance at 1.4255, signaling that the euro bulls are not going down without a fight. After the third bounce off support around 1.4200 the pair jumped 100 pips in 3 hours before easing off just below 1.4300. This latest thrust signals possible strength left in the Euro but I expected the upside to be limited by resistance at 1.4300 and the intersection of two trend resistance lines (yellow on chart below) just above 1.4300.

Trading Idea: Indicators are mixed, but I would look to sell with a tight stop in the 1.4315 area with an eye back down to 1.4260 and 1.4225.

(click to enlarge)

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