10-27-09
5:38a GMT – The problem with trend reversal signals is that technically when you back out to a larger timeframe any “reversal” just looks like a minor correction in the overall trend. We have a similiar situation today with the EUR/USD as it approaches its daily trend support. You can see just the edge of it in the below chart (the thick blue light at the bottom right) currently at about 1.4725. The only real way to confirm a trend reversal is with fundamentals, and we have had the same mixed fundamental picture for awhile now. As the US economy gets better and interest rates are at an all time low the greenback has suffered against higher-yielding currencies as risk-appetite increased. For USD strength we either need bad US economic news or very bad Eurozone news (to show that the world economy is still struggling). Without changing fundamentals we are probably just seeing a price correction and some profit taking. Well yesterday we did get some bad news as US consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped below 50% (a slight increase had been forcasted) and home price index continued to contract. Today we have Germany’s consumer report and that could give us some direction in the EUR/USD short-term.
But since the short term 60M trend is down I will continue to look to sell rallies at resistance but I will set my target at that thick blue daily support as I expect congestion there.
Trading Idea: looking to sell a rally below the 1.4870 resistance area with short targets at 1.4835, 1.4800 and 1.4770. If 1.4870 is broken without signal look for a challenge of 1.4925.
(click to enlarge)
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October 28, 2009 at 07:05
Hi Mark, any news about the other pairs signals? where is it?
October 28, 2009 at 07:15
Hi Mark, just so that i am sure am reading your signals correctly. You will wait until it risea to 1.4870 and Sell (Short) . otherwise if 1.4870 is broken, meaning it goes about that you will go long?
i just want to make sure am reading your signals correctly.
the thing is i have bought(long) yesterday at 1.4856 and have a huge loss till now, so if what you mean by 1.4870 resistance is that it will reach that, then its better i hold on to the opening i have now, rather than selling and loosing what i have. right? please advice
thank you in advance.
anyones comment is welcome
October 28, 2009 at 14:23
Hi Ziad, Sunil’s response is right on the money: I am looking for a bearish confirmation signal below 1.4870 to sell. It bounced off lower resistance at 1.4840 without any signal about 8 hours ago without any confirmation signal so no trade has yet been entered (by me – other more aggressive traders may very well have entered there – lots of different ways to trade). Also, Sunil is correct, yesterday’s signal/analysis was for a short. I recommend trading in a demo account until you get confident in your abilities. PipHut is meant to supplement your own trading, not trade for you.
October 28, 2009 at 08:07
any advice guys.. please
October 28, 2009 at 08:34
Hi Ziad,
Today’s signal is to go short if there is candlestick confirmation at 1.4870. If there is no candlestick confirmation, wait for 4925 for a reversal candle stick and go short. Yesterday there was no signal from piphut to go long as far as I understand. Piphut way of trading is to go with the trend , ie go short when price pulls back and reach a resistance and confirm with candle sticks on 1 hour chart.
October 28, 2009 at 08:37
Hi Guys,
If u got any confirmation candlesticks to go short please share it.
October 28, 2009 at 08:41
Just want to confirm it
October 28, 2009 at 08:47
Sunil, thank you for your input, with regards to yesterday (My bad :-) ) , it would be good practice that i stay with the opening that i bought at 1.485 since you mention that there might be a signal at 1.47 which means it will pass through my 1.485, otherwise if not i will have to sell what i had bought yesterday at 1.485 .
so in conclusion, is there a possibility sinse the signal says sell short at 1.487 i might not loose what i had bought yesterday
——–
- Yest bought at 1.485
- now its 1.4814
- should i sell now and loose what i have or wait since it might pass my 1.485
its just an advice i am seeking.
thanks again
October 28, 2009 at 08:53
ziad if you got skype.. you could join us in group chat discussing trade opportunities on EU.. my skype ID is ‘collectingPips’ .. thanks
October 28, 2009 at 09:22
@Ziad , if I were you .. I would like to go with the trend and close the buy position.
To tell you … I also opened long position at 4970 on 26th considering it will go up… Finally closed the position at 4885..with huge loss considering the trend has changed.
After that I opened short position at 4870 and closeed it at 4800 covering some amount of loss.
This is forex.. there is no place for ifs and buts , better go with the trend, rather than fighting it. Profit and loss have equal probability and better be ready to accept that. If you cant accept loss, you have no right to accept profit also.
Wishing all of us success and pip filled day.
October 28, 2009 at 10:54
Hi Zaid
JUst do not depair as yet. There are opinions that the $ might go back to 1.5000 after tomorrow’s economic news. You had a chance at 1.4840 to minimize your loss. You might get a second one. Hold thumbs for you!
October 28, 2009 at 11:06
Hi SS
What a wonderful coward you are. We do not need your kind on this forum. You are indeed a misrepresentation of the human race. Crawl back to our hole of darkness and surface again
October 28, 2009 at 11:07
Hi SS
What a wonderful coward you are. We do not need your kind on this forum. You are indeed a misrepresentation of the human race. Crawl back to our hole of darkness and do not surface again on this forum
October 28, 2009 at 11:16
Hendrik, thx for the advice, i appreciate , please keep sharing when u can
October 28, 2009 at 11:27
Ziad – I’ve been before – trust me it will happen again. If you get that tendency again sit on your hands. It’s harder to make up losses than to let an opportunity pass.
October 28, 2009 at 11:43
@ Ziad
JAKARTA (Dow Jones)a Bank Indonesia official said Wednesday
“The strength of U.S. dollar against regional currencies does not mean the era of the weak dollar is over, due to the size of the U.S. deficit, low interest rates and the (pace of the) recovery of the U.S. economy, which remains slow,”
October 28, 2009 at 12:00
@SS, constructive criticism is welcome here but your comment is just a waste of YOUR time because nobody cares.
October 28, 2009 at 12:09
@Hendrik, thanks, although i am reading some places that it may reach 1.4690… i am just scared of calling margin, since i had bought 12 lots on the 1.4850 with a margin of :):) can i have ur mail :)
October 28, 2009 at 12:28
Ziad – post your’s
October 28, 2009 at 12:44
Hi Ziad,
May be a good idea to close half the lots and wait on the other half to find a suitable exit.
@ss it is the first time I have seen someone use that language in piphut forums. That tells you where you belong to !!
October 28, 2009 at 12:56
SS…, if you deon’t like the place here or the efforts, just ignore it and leave the site, people here are helping each others and some of them are trying to learn too, simply you can say THANKS and SORRY to Mark instead…
October 28, 2009 at 12:59
Ziad – you’re getting there. A significant high on the 15m chart has been reached. Now we wait for the 30m chart. Hang in there buddy
October 28, 2009 at 13:00
Hi Ziad.., I think also you may wait till the news …, it is coming soon, maybe the USD will down again and you can minimize your losses, (just an idea :)) )
October 28, 2009 at 13:18
Hendrik / Amr thanks alot guys…
Hendrik my mail is hassanmoukadem AT hotmail.com
October 28, 2009 at 13:24
Welcome Ziad, hope you benefit..
October 28, 2009 at 13:40
Ziad
40 pips to go!!!!
October 28, 2009 at 13:49
HENDRIK .. thx am monitoring
ur the MANNNN :) piphut is the PLACE!!!
October 28, 2009 at 14:43
Mark on that note – have you ever consider trading on behalf of people?
October 28, 2009 at 14:55
I’ve considered it. And I’ve had a few people make me offers to manage some of their accounts. At the time I was traveling quite a bit and when you are managing accounts you can’t just pick up for a few days or a week. In the end I prefer just managing my own accounts. I make good money, it gives me time to run PipHut and it gives me more flexibility with my shcedule in general :).
October 28, 2009 at 14:49
Hendrick: Mark is already trading in our behalf :) Is teaching us how to fish instead of giving us the fish.
October 28, 2009 at 14:56
I’m just one trader sharing his analysis and setting up a community where traders across the world can help each other :).
October 28, 2009 at 14:57
Do you think Eur is a good BUY at 1.4700??
Do you think it is a good idea?
I know the signal today is bearish…
:)
Please advice
October 28, 2009 at 15:08
Nuno you’re missing the point. There are lots of people who have no time of day for trading as we do, but who would like to invest money in forex. I know of a chap who claims 80% profit per month and he takes 30%. That 600% per annum in your pocket. The only snag is you have to invest a lot
October 28, 2009 at 15:28
Hello Mark. I am hoping that someone will give me some help.
I would like to know some rules for setting stop loss and taking profits. For example, I have a $5,000 demo account and I bought 1 lot of a buy of EUR/USD @ 1.4810 for $725. I need to know what is a good rule to follow as to taking my profits. Also, where do I set my stop loss. As of now EUR/USD @ 1.4773 therefore I have loss approx. $370 (37 pips). I usually just keep holding on to the losing order hoping that the trend will turn back around and I will make my money back but it gets worse and I end up losing all of the money and starting a new demo account. I now know that I should not have even got in a buy on yesterday since the trend was down. I’m still trying to learn to read the charts. Please, anybody, I need help because I really want to learn to trade.
October 28, 2009 at 15:41
Hendrick: you’re rigth, I’am missing the point of one having availability to trade. Apart from that, for me is hard to believe that someone get’s consistenly 80% profit for month, every month that is. When I read such cases always remind me of Madoff and Ponzi Inc. ;)
Hi Lisa,
you should start by reading a lot, to learn the basics about technical analysis and candlesticks. There are lots of material in the web for free, choose one that looks simple for a start. Another thing is to read carefully Mark’s posts, look at the chart and try to spot what is the situation, not just read the “trading Idea”.
October 28, 2009 at 16:52
I’m just one trader sharing his analysis and setting up a community where traders across the world can help each other :).
———————————————-
That’s what I call global community service. May you live till the cows come home!!!!
October 28, 2009 at 18:40
Mark any coments on that invereted hammer on 1h chart ?
i asoume it should bounce back a bit after souch a big drop lol
October 28, 2009 at 19:25
It’s not a very good looking hammer. Body is too big. The 4h chart has been producing some pretty reliable candlesticks during the past few days. We could see a nice doji their if the price remains the same for the next 1.5 hours.
October 28, 2009 at 20:12
Yes i saw …. i just wanted to say to never minde for that last post :/
on 1h chart it looks like pair found some suport and on daily chart it just hit 60% retracment …. if it goes as it did for the last two days it should retrace back a bit again .
October 28, 2009 at 20:33
That 61.8% retracement of the 10/2-10/26 low/high could offer some good opportunities for scalpers. Good catch.