10-13-09
6:31a GMT – Sometimes you just have to take a step back from the charts and think about what all those little candlesticks mean, and right now the dollar bulls and bears are locked in a struggle to determine the future of the currency. On the USD index charts (not shown) we can see the USD is against several different support levels vs. various currencies, and the EUR/USD itself is flirting with strong resistance at 1.4820. For our shorter term purposes the waters are nearly as murky – if you back out to the 4h chart you can see a giant V shape from late Septemeber to present, with a slight bullish bias. Though I am bearish in the long term, I will put my personal feelings aside and trade with the bullish, short-term trend.
Trading Idea: looking to buy near support above 1.4725. Long targets at 1.4755, 1.4790 and 1.4820.
(click to enlarge)
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October 13, 2009 at 10:09
I think it is a good day to catch up on the gardening
October 13, 2009 at 13:47
It’s always a good day for that! :)
October 13, 2009 at 10:20
Seems as if its going to test the year-high at ~1.4845 again, if it bounces off this mark, would it be a short signal?
October 13, 2009 at 11:15
1.4872 was hit at about 4:10am (PST)…
October 13, 2009 at 11:20
We have 2 resistance levels: 1.4850 and 1.4870
What next?
October 13, 2009 at 11:32
EUR/USD is at 1.4850 , just now, should i buy or sell short?
October 13, 2009 at 11:45
what do i see now ? i am having a short position at 1.4790 and i am -80 pips now… shall i close it or wait till it comes back ?
October 13, 2009 at 13:45
Never a good idea to trade against the trend…
October 13, 2009 at 12:35
Personally i’m waiting till it comes back till 1.4800, then i’m gonna buy and sell at about 1.4850. Correct me Mark or others if my predictions are wrong.. I hope this day will be better for me, as yesterday wasn’t.. :)
October 13, 2009 at 13:45
We definitely have support in the 1.4800 but I’m a little doubtful that it will hold if tested. 1.4770 might be a little more conservative or even 1.4750 (the 50% and 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s low).
October 13, 2009 at 13:36
Vytenis, Sorry im still new to this trading strategy,and would like to learn, would you be kind enough as to explan how you came to those exact figures.Thank you in advance.
October 13, 2009 at 13:42
We might have a bearish reversal candle closing on the 4-hour chart. Looks like a shooting star but we have 20 minutes to wait.
October 13, 2009 at 14:05
Oops, it will be another 2 hours before the 4-hour candle will close! Wishful thinking..
October 13, 2009 at 14:14
isn’t it a hammer candle on a 30m chart just now? please, share your views
October 13, 2009 at 14:36
Mark, on the 1 hr chart, was this a “bearish dark cloud cover candlestick” that completed 1,5 hrs ago?
October 13, 2009 at 14:41
No, dark cloud cover can really only happen at the beginning of the week in forex. It requires a gap to occur and for the open price of the current candlestick to be higher than the close of the previous candlestick (gap). Since in most forex candles it is a continuous due to 24-hour trading we don’t see many gaps and therefore not many dark cloud covers either. Any candlestick configs with gaps in them are more geared to stock and/or other non-24hour charts.
October 13, 2009 at 16:14
Thank you for explaining the gaps. I have been reading up about candlesticks and looking for gaps…Now I know when to look for it …Sunday night..
October 13, 2009 at 16:32
Too much volatility. If you were sharp you could have made 60+ pips long and 30 pips short whilst watching the screen. It looks like “family violence” between the B & B (and thats no Bed & Beakfast)
October 13, 2009 at 16:52
It did bounce off 1.4800 twice indeed as Vytenis predicted but I couldn’t see any clear signal to go long.
October 13, 2009 at 19:00
My predictions seemed to be right:) Some kind of miracle:)
October 13, 2009 at 19:04
it will end 1.4845
October 13, 2009 at 19:12
Hi Mark, a simple question, first i am a newbie, however , i on a daily basis read your signal, and to tell you the truth, i find it the best place to read them.
now my question is, since eur/usd has reached some peak 1.48something , would you expect it to go downwords anytime soon? or what peak upwards do you forcast, i am planning to sell short multiple lots. Honestly speaking since i am a newbie that started with a small margin, i had a loss once that liquidated since it went below margin, so now i have a bigger margin but all i want is garatee to sell short and buy nultiple lots.
please let me know what you think
October 13, 2009 at 19:40
Has it looks like you are on the way to another margin call. To begin: 1) if you are a self-admitted newbie, trade a demo account. 2) When the EUR/USD is bullish, you don’t look to sell. It is a lot easier to trade with the trend than to pick tops/bottoms. 3) as a newbie, why would you use multiple lots? That is an advanced strategy. You can gain more, but you can also lose a lot more. 4) There is no such thing as a “guarantee” in the forex market (or any investment). Read the risk disclosure at the bottom of this page. There is a good chance you can lose your deposit trading forex and the way you are going about it right now it does not look good for you.
That being said you don’t have to give up. Trade with a demo account for a few months. Read some books on trading. Master some techniques. Follow my analysis here and talk with the other traders about what works for them. Everybody has a different forex style/system. Some techniques work for some but might now work for others. Slow down, take a deep breath and don’t be afraid to miss out in the short-term to help your long-term success.
October 13, 2009 at 19:50
hey mark, will do as told.. and would be greatfull if you can share some links on how to read signals or some books urls etc…
for the meantime ill proceed slowly
October 13, 2009 at 20:49
“It is a lot easier to trade with the trend than to pick tops/bottoms”
Mark, what do You mean? Should i look a trend of an hour or 4 hours or a day? Or a week maybe? I tried to trade with the trend, but i allways disorientated where to look. At half an hour chart or at hour chart or at other.. If You understood my question….. :)
October 13, 2009 at 20:54
Take today’s signal for example. We determined that the short-term trend was bullish, so we were going to look to buy dips or buy failures of support. You had the right idea when you looked to buy near 1.4800 – the short-term (60M or 4h) trend was bullish so you were looking to long the pair.
October 13, 2009 at 21:07
so actually we could sell when we are waiting till price goes down… and then rebuy when it reaches our needed level to make double profit :) as i’m a bit new, it’s kind’a hard to understand all this you are sayin’:) how to separate a trend from interm minutes deflection? what type of chart (1h or 4h or 5min) could actually show trend most exactly?
October 13, 2009 at 21:56
I have a fealing that there is a shooting star forming on 1h chart :/ i hope it is and Mark will confirm it :)
i so dont want to miss it lol
October 13, 2009 at 22:08
It turned into a doji cross with a long wick. It is a bearish sell signal, but it is not as significant because it is a) not the high of the day by a long stretch, b) doesn’t pierce signficant resistance. c) doesn’t occur after long uptrend.
That being said it is a sell signal, so if you knew something I didn’t about the pair or had a strong resistance line there…
October 13, 2009 at 22:04
omg i beter shut up lol
I just rembered a few words from Mark ” a few min before it closes it look like a good signal the 1min before it does or when it does it looks a completley diferend thing “
October 13, 2009 at 22:30
nope i just tought that it will not go higer than it did like 10h ago to 1.4875 asuming this is the resistance point for tooday and because it look like it cant decide where its gona finish… doji one min the next one looking like a shooting star lol
so i was just hoping it will finish as a shooting star and you would confir it :)
i trade for a few months so i still have troubles with recognizing some signals and paterns .
October 13, 2009 at 22:44
ohhh well 20 min till this candel closes and hopefuly if im wright about it that this is the resistance for tooday and if shooting star is forming only at the top to be a valid signal to sell then i guess my fealing was corect atleaste once tooday lol
October 13, 2009 at 23:03
doji and shooting star ? sell ? is it a good valid signal ? :D