October 22, 2009 04:38

Forex Signals – EUR/USD Overbought Uptrend

By:

10-22-09

5:09a GMT – Kind of a long post today. A few quick housekeeping things and then onto today’s signal. First off a “thanks” to everyone who continues to drive the discussion here at PipHut. PipHut was always meant to be a community of traders and everyday it seems to feel more and more like a “community”. Don’t be afraid to jump into the discussion whether you are new or experienced – all viewpoints are welcome. I’m glad I can contribute to your growth as a trader but there are plenty of traders on PipHut and if everyone helps each other, then we all benefit. So thank you and keep up the good work!

A few site updates:

1) Signals Service the PipHut signals service continues to move forward with very impressive results. All signals are entry (so you get advanced notice of a trade – not a notice telling you the trade has already been entered). The pairs it is currently working for are EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, CHF/JPY and EUR/GBP. +300 pips yesterday :). Update: the signals service is NOT released yet if you are looking for it or emailed me about it! I’m looking for a mid-November release date.

2) Candlestick article – still in the works. Hopefully out by Sunday. I’m trying to make it more than just a “here is what a candlestick looks like” and give it much more useful and specific information. For example instead of “A doji has long top and bottom wicks and a skinny body” it would say “A doji has long top and bottom wicks, skinny body AND works best on EUR/USD and GBP/JPY when the piercing wick is at least 10 pips above….. etc. etc.” So much better, more actionable information.

3) New forums are coming. I love the discussion we have at the bottom of each signal and those will always continue, but there are some discussions that could continue day after day, need more space, etc. With a forum you can also build your own profile, start your own threads, etc. I know PipHut has forums already but, to be honest, they are not that user friendly and as such I haven’t made them a big part of the site. That is going to change.

Those are the big three things I’m working on at the moment. In the forums too I’ll be posting various indicators, EAs etc. as I know people like those. Thanks again to everyone who makes PipHut a community that people like to take part in.

OK, today’s signal! Netted 60 pips on the EUR/USD signal yesterday. It rose an additional 40 pips after that but I stuck to my trade plan and cashed out. I’m glad that some of you were able to profit off the GBP/JPY tip as well! Normally I don’t post my analysis for the other pairs I trade but that one was too juicy looking to pass up :). That’s what the Signals Service will be for!

Yesterday we saw the big psychological barrier at 1.5000 broken. Almost all analysis I read has the USD as oversold, but right now we don’t have any good technical reasons to go against the trend so we will continue to look for buying opportunities. We do have to be vigilant though because what we could be seeing is a false breakout of 1.5000 on the larger timeframe charts which would be a very bearish signal. But we haven’t seen that yet… Currently the pair has fallen back below 1.50 but is finding support at the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the day’s high/low.

Trading Idea: Looking for a bounce or a bullish candlestick signal around the 1.4950 area. If that area is broken then look for a challenge of 1.4900. Long targets from 1.4950 are 1.4985, 1. 5015 and 1.5045.

(click to enlarge)
eu102209buying

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45 Comments on "Forex Signals – EUR/USD Overbought Uptrend"
  1. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 05:24
    Andy says:

    cool, thanks for the update.

  2. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 06:36
    Juan says:

    Hallo Mark

    Where can I receive the PipHut signals service ?? I can only see the eur/usd?
    Thanks for a very good website!
    So far you guys are the best!!

    • Avatar of piphut
      Comment left on:
      October 22, 2009 at 14:21
      piphut says:

      Where can I receive the PipHut signals service ?? I can only see the eur/usd?

      Sorry, signals service is not publicly-released yet. I updated the post above to avoid any confusion.

  3. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 06:51
    Jevgenij says:

    Signal service and candlestick article sounds exiting ! cant wayt to see it :)

    And forum for chit chat is a good idea to so we dont spam under your signals :D tough here is much more easyer to post :)

  4. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 06:53
    Jevgenij says:

    Juan EUR/USD is the only one you will get for nou because ” signal service ” for other pairs is not ready yet its a work in progres…

  5. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 07:12
    CROM says:

    Actually, I am a new trader… Lost too much so far because of false & misleading signals, however, ur site is the only one I am making money off and hopefully i can recover my losses…. Really thanks guys…

    By the way, I am from Lebanon

  6. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 07:21
    HENDRIK says:

    Mark, the Terminator asked: “Do you feel lucky?”. Yeah! This morning I saw the shooting star on the 4h chart and just could’nt resist it. Entered at the high of the 20MA, tight SL of 24 and TP 50 pips – I’m going down and join you on the way up

    • Avatar of piphut
      Comment left on:
      October 22, 2009 at 14:22
      piphut says:

      Mark, the Terminator asked: “Do you feel lucky?”. Yeah! This morning I saw the shooting star on the 4h chart and just could’nt resist it. Entered at the high of the 20MA, tight SL of 24 and TP 50 pips – I’m going down and join you on the way up

      :)

  7. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 07:37
    shae says:

    Great signals. Most important lesson from this site is to be patient and the trade will come to you.

    Can’t wait for more signals.

    Thanks & keep up the good work!

  8. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 07:43
    Terry says:

    Hello Guys

    this site is the best and am very happy hope to be an expert someday with … and please any one with the three best indicator to determine future trade… Mark I Love You…

  9. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 07:49
    Juan says:

    Jevgenij, thanks!
    Then I cant wait fot all the new stuff…
    :)

  10. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 08:32
    Malaysia says:

    Great site. Most of the signals are accurate. I trade mostly on the EUR/USD and the signals you gave are very good. Thanks for all the tips

  11. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 09:01
    zunasa says:

    hi mark your almost all signals are working. but i have no courage to buy i m so scared because i lost already so much money but i noticed on your site most of signals are working..but how can i get in my email i already sign up with you..You just best

    • Avatar of piphut
      Comment left on:
      October 22, 2009 at 14:24
      piphut says:

      hi mark your almost all signals are working. but i have no courage to buy i m so scared because i lost already so much money but i noticed on your site most of signals are working..but how can i get in my email i already sign up with you..You just best

      Hi Zunasa, start with a demo account. Since my free signals don’t say “buy/sell here, tp here, sl here…” they take some getting used to and they also take some knowledge and confidence so you can set your own SL and TP. So start with a demo account, build up your confidence and also talk to the traders here on the site who are successfully using the analysis. Welcome to PipHut!

  12. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 09:07
    Sergey says:

    do you have any statistics on the profit and loss

  13. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 09:11
    Dwight says:

    what is your average S/L?

    Regards,
    Dwight

    • Avatar of piphut
      Comment left on:
      October 22, 2009 at 14:25
      piphut says:

      what is your average S/L?/blockquote>

      Hi Dwight, read the article on the left entitled “Learn Forex: Money Management”. Basically SL can vary depending on the trade setup, where support/resistance are, how volatile the pair is, etc. But I would say in general on the EUR/USD I like at least a 40-50 pip SL.

  14. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 09:12
    Johny says:

    I think that was the signal, hammer at 9am Gmt on the 1hour chart. I went long, lets see.
    Thank you Mark

  15. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 09:19
    South Africa says:

    Yes Johny I agree!
    I went also LOOOONG…
    :)
    Now lets hope

  16. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 09:21
    South Africa says:

    Where is your stop loss???
    1.4870?

  17. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 09:38
    HENDRIK says:

    Johny and ZAR wait for the confirmation candle to finish. I think you have to increase the SL

  18. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 09:39
    Andy says:

    Mark, can you also include in your candlestick article how exact/clear these candlesticks must be in order to be valid signals?
    I have problems sometimes determining the candlesticks, as often they do not appear exactly as “in the book” and I’m rather avoiding an entry in that case.

  19. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 09:40
    Bloom says:

    it would be great if we had a chatroom such as messenger or skype, so we can discuss the signal for the day and other traders insights.. thanks Mark the signals are great

  20. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 10:05
    Sunil says:

    Great news for us. I can see this website making into the top 50000 alexa rating given the sticky aspect and the quality of signals. More people using Mark’s signal can be self fulfilling :-)

  21. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 10:27
    Andy says:

    A chatroom would be great, i’d feel more confident if I’m in a trade together with other traders, we could then support and cheer us up lol

  22. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 10:31
    Andy says:

    @HENDRIK, the confirmation candle would be the next hour candle?
    How should this confirmation candle look to confirm the hammer?

  23. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 10:57
    HENDRIK says:

    Andy first off I stand to be corrected and I would Like to hear from Mark as well – he’s the expert. I would say that the closing price of the next candle after the hammer must be higher than the hammer’s opening. Failing that look at the second bull candle with the same criteria. Mark what do say?

    • Avatar of piphut
      Comment left on:
      October 22, 2009 at 14:30
      piphut says:

      Andy first off I stand to be corrected and I would Like to hear from Mark as well – he’s the expert. I would say that the closing price of the next candle after the hammer must be higher than the hammer’s opening. Failing that look at the second bull candle with the same criteria. Mark what do say?

      I went long after the hammer at 1.4955. Took profit at 1.5005 after the failure of the second target at 1.5015.

  24. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 11:07
    HENDRIK says:

    Andy, Mark can let us know what the margin must be

  25. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 11:18
    jack says:

    Where do I find posts for the other currency pairs other than EUR/USD? I can’t seem to locate them on your site.

  26. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 11:29
    HENDRIK says:

    Andy look at the 1h cart MACD(12,26,9)applied to the closing price – the signal is still down. Thus I’m not as yet going long

  27. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 11:47
    Johny says:

    got my money for today, thank you again Mark. Cant wait for the improvements to the site

  28. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 12:09
    Andy says:

    Hendrik, seems indeed as though the hammer signal was good for today even without the confirmation, +40 pips for those who went in until 1.5000.
    I have applied now the MACD and will follow it also for positive signs, thanks.

  29. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 12:22
    South Africa says:

    Isn’t the MACD a lagging indicator??
    I am still new at this…
    :)

    • Avatar of piphut
      Comment left on:
      October 22, 2009 at 14:34
      piphut says:

      Isn’t the MACD a lagging indicator??

      It is. The only indicator I use is the ATR and I don’t actually use it – it’s just handy to see what the volatility is at a glance. Sometimes it will effect my stop losses or how far away my entry orders are.

  30. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 12:31
    Ed says:

    Thanks Mark. Got 49pips out of this!!

  31. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 13:40
    Gonzalo says:

    Can´t wait for the new service!!!, thank you Mark!!

  32. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 13:43
    jason says:

    Hi Mark, to me the support was 1.4900, but your fibonacci was 1.4950, and you win, so… how do you know when to use fibonacci or sup/res?

    • Avatar of piphut
      Comment left on:
      October 22, 2009 at 14:36
      piphut says:

      Hi Mark, to me the support was 1.4900, but your fibonacci was 1.4950, and you win, so… how do you know when to use fibonacci or sup/res?

      I consider the Fibonacci lines to be equal with other support/resistance lines – no added weight. So if I have a Fib line at 1.20, a normal support at 1.10 and another fib at 1.00 I consider them all of equal importance. It just depends on how strong the trend is and how volatile the market is for which I one I pick as most significant that day. And if price charges through one with no bounce/confirmation then I look for the next one.

  33. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 14:06
    Alvin says:

    Your new improved site sounds terrific Mark. I can’t wait for those new pairs and a real discussion forum! Thank you!

  34. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 14:13
    Naseem says:

    Mark
    Thanks you so much for the update. I am desperately waiting for the candle stick article and signal service.

  35. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 14:17
    Nuno says:

    Again repeating my self and all others: Thanks a lot Mark! To day I got +49 pips like Ed. By now I am always sure when to enter looking at the candlesticks and your values for suppport and resistance. Next step: start to draw the support and resistance lines before looking at you morning post! Thanks!

  36. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 14:39
    Matt says:

    Yes, please remind me of the upcoming signal alerts this mid-November. Thank you!!

  37. Comment left on:
    October 22, 2009 at 18:48
    Ana says:

    Hi Mark, I’m new @ trading and signed up with fxcm. I’m trading off their Marketscope because I like trading on the chart. What broker do you trade with? I’ve read some horror stories about fxcm. Thanks and I love you too.

    • Avatar of piphut
      Comment left on:
      October 22, 2009 at 18:52
      piphut says:

      Hi Mark, I’m new @ trading and signed up with FXCM. I’m trading off their Marketscope because I like …

      Hi Ana, welcome to PipHut! I avoid talking about brokers because PipHut isn’t affiliated with any brokers and I try and keep it that way. Every broker is going to have their horror stories because trading currency is such a risky proposition in general. That being said I think FXCM is better than most.

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