10-29-09
4:46a GMT – The USD has made an amazing recovery against the Euro in recent days, and signals might point toward a continued recovery Thursday. We have two event risks with the EUR/USD we will have to watch closely to see how the market reacts: the US GDP in the afternoon and Germany’s unemployment rate in the morning. As always recently the USD is also heavily tied to the performance of US stocks – a recovery in US stocks will likely mean an increase in the EUR/USD as risk appetite creeps back into the market.
With over 300 pips dropped in 2 days we are at risk of a better correction in the pair, but we will continue to sell the trend and look to enter shorts on rallies and bearish candlestick signals near resistance.
Trading Idea: Prefer shorts under 1.4800 (first resistance at 1.4750) with targets at 1.4755, 1.4725 and 1.4680.
(click to enlarge)
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October 29, 2009 at 03:59
FYI that’s a pretty bullish looking DOUBLE DOJI on the 4h chart… It makes it a lot more likely that will see an increase before we see an increase…
October 29, 2009 at 05:19
Mark, likely we will see an increase before an DECREASE??
Is that what you meant??
Mark, You are very good!!!
Thank you very much :)
October 29, 2009 at 14:07
Yes, increase before DECREASE, good catch.
October 29, 2009 at 08:23
but are we still selling?
October 29, 2009 at 08:46
I bought at 1.4700 and taking profit at 1.4770!
After that I am going to sell
What do you think guys?
Because there is good resistance at 1.4825?
Please advice :)
October 29, 2009 at 09:03
Hi Mark – I know you don’t want to provide signals which I agree with as the best thing about piphut is learning to stand on your own two feet. However, it would be great if on the following day, you could summarize which positions you took (if any). Yes this would be after the event, but I think everyone would benefit and aid in understanding the piphut way of trading. For me, I feel it is the one element that is missing to complete the picture.
Long live piphut!
October 29, 2009 at 14:09
That’s a good suggestion. Let me think about the easiest way to do that.
October 29, 2009 at 10:33
Hi Zar,
great entry at 1.47. Be aware, has it as a resistence about 1.475, where is now. If it starts to tumble down take you’re profit at this level. At 11h00 GMT (in half an hour) take a look at the 1H candlestick, if it is somewhere near a doji or a shooting star I advice you to take you profit and run! :)
October 29, 2009 at 10:56
Nuno, thank you very much!
I appreciate your advice!
I moved my stop loss to my opening entry!
:)
Thanx
October 29, 2009 at 11:08
Zar: glad I can be of help. The way this hour closed I would advice you to take these nearly 50 pips profit now. It closed almost like a shooting star…
October 29, 2009 at 12:11
guys, what will the GDP report affect the pair? need help please
October 29, 2009 at 12:23
Hi CROM,
you can always check this out: http://www.dailyfx.com/
The analysis is normally good, of course they always end up with something like: “if goes UP then you must BUY, but if goes DOWN than you should Sell”
October 29, 2009 at 12:25
appreciated
October 29, 2009 at 14:01
anyone going short????
October 29, 2009 at 14:11
I haven’t seen a very good candlestick signal to go short yet.
October 29, 2009 at 14:08
2day signal is still valid, r u guys still waiting for reversal. any advice please
October 29, 2009 at 14:22
Mark do u think it will still go down
October 29, 2009 at 14:36
That is still my bias, yes. Take a look at the 1h chart – steady downward trend. The 4h chart is a bit concerning, but if I see a good candlestick entry on the 1h or 4h I will go short.
October 29, 2009 at 14:56
Mark, there have been big problems with loading the site yesterday and today. I am refreshing it all day long for reading comments and loaded just 3 out of 50 times today. ( 8 hours span )
October 29, 2009 at 14:59
Hmmm. Any one else having these problems? Johny where are you located and what type of browser are you using?
October 29, 2009 at 15:04
No problemo with Firefox
October 29, 2009 at 15:14
Hi Mark, thanks for your great site and your analysis. I think I can learn a lot from you. I have a question about your trading style. Do you use trailing stops or do you move your stop after you position goes into profit?
I think I do often find good entry points with a SL and TP with a good risk/reward ratio. But I often struggle if I should manage my trade after the position goes into profit or if I just let it run until it hits my SL or TP? I often move my SL to breakeven, I think this should be ok. But when my position goes more into profit and I’m moving my SL higher I think I’m changing my initally risk/reward ratio? What’s your thought on that?
October 29, 2009 at 15:15
no problem with IE, from Portugal
October 29, 2009 at 15:32
Hi Mark,I had problem trying to load the site yesterday too…am in London n usin explorer…Eur/Usd:I think the resistance is around 1.4820 and if it breaks then 1.4860.Am new…great site u have.
October 29, 2009 at 15:55
Cant load the site reliably here too, using firefox (ive tried 3 browsers). Problems began after the maintenance you did past weekend. Location is Bulgaria.
On topic , this is a nice shooting star forming on the 1hour chart – provided it closes like this in the next 8 minutes.
October 29, 2009 at 16:43
I had some problems trying to load the site on Monday and changed dns to opendns and refreshed. It was fine since then.