10-21-09
5:08a GMT – Not much happened with the EUR/USD yesterday overall. I did go long (as mentioned in my comments section of yesterday’s signal) after the hammer candlestick bounce at 17:00 on the 60M chart just above 1.4900 (which was the 61.8% fib retracement of the 1.4830 low) and one of our support levels. That was closed out for a small 30 pip profit at day’s end. While yesterday was a bit bearish if you back out to the 4h chart you can see the mid-term uptrend is still very much intact (I wouldn’t consider a major bearish move unless 1.4820 was broken) so I will be looking to buy on dips.
Trading Idea: First support level to look for dips is obviously the 1.4900-1.4870, with the next range of support between 1.4840-1.4820. From 1.4870 my long targets are 1.4900, 1.4930, 1.4960 and 1.4995.
On a side note the GBP/JPY has been consolidating in a tight 1.47-1.493 range since gaining 800 pips in about a week. Looks like it is due for a breakout when it leaves the range, and technically that appears to be leaning toward an upside breakout.
(click to enlarge)
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October 21, 2009 at 9:45 am
Good call on the GBP/JPY breakout!
October 21, 2009 at 10:08 am
Hi Mark – new to your site, fascinating! What charting program do you use and are those R1, R2, R3, S1, S2, S3 red lines?
So I have a better understanding of your money management, what S/L and T/P would you have set on today’s buying on dips?
October 21, 2009 at 3:23 pm
MetaTrader4 is my primary. Those red lines are support and resistance but they aren’t standard pivot lines or anything derived using a formula – just the good old-fashioned eyeball check. The s/l and t/p are going to depend on where you enter. I give the analysis and my recommendations, the traders here each use it differently. Some scalp the S/R levels, some disagree with my analysis and trade different directions, others try and trade as close to my recommendation as possible. For today’s trade I bought the bounce off of the 50% fib mark at the 13:00 hour. I waited for the candle to close so I got in around 1.4930. I was targeting 1.4995 so potential profit was 65 pips, used a 35 pip stop to get just under a 2:1 risk/reward ratio (at a 2:1 ratio you only need to get 1/3 of your trades right to break even, read the money management article on the left for more details).
Welcome to the PipHut community!
October 21, 2009 at 10:29 am
Great site Mark. It has helped me a lot!! bty. I am not getting the forex signals via email. Can you add me?
Thanks!
October 21, 2009 at 11:53 am
Ed, subscribe to piphut.com to revieve forex signals via email
Do this by clicking subscribe to “PipHut.com” under popular posts. Find this section on the top corner of this page
October 21, 2009 at 11:55 am
Ed… Left corner i meant
October 21, 2009 at 12:47 pm
GBP/JPY am I correct in saying it was a flagpole foormation before the breakout?
That was a good call. Any updates on the candle stick article you were writing?
October 21, 2009 at 12:51 pm
“ovisse
Comment on October 21st, 2009.
Ed… Left corner i meant”
I did that a few days ago, but did not get an email. Just tried it again.
Thanks
October 21, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Ed: look at your junk, or spam, mail folder. Maybe is there.
14:20 GMT: It looks like the signal was in 20 minutes ago, and I was out in the gym… It maybe good for my health, but sure not for my wealth :) I just missed the signal.
October 21, 2009 at 1:29 pm
I can clearly see an up trend line from October 2 (H4) and it seems that the last days the price has tried this support.
October 21, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Just got it. Thanks all!!
October 21, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Thanks Nuno and Ovisse for helping Ed out. And anyone else if I missed them.
October 21, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Snuck in 13pips when I seen the bounce off the .500fib .Put a sell just bellow the previous resistance at .0236. But the EUR/USD is pushing well above it.
October 21, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Did a short just bellow the 0.000. May end up giving back my 13pips and a few more if it blows past it.
October 21, 2009 at 2:14 pm
What made you think that GBPJPY is inclined to upwards ? I was thinking of shorting it at 149 since I see lot of resistance over there. Please explain..Your help will be appreciated
October 21, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Sunil got it right. If there is a big flagpole followed by a consolidation then more times than not it will breakout in the direction of the trend (in this case up). There are different ways to trade this. Some will buy at the bottom of the consolidation. Some will wait for a clear break to the upside. The tradeoff is with the first method you get a better price, with the second method you can avoid more bad trades (but also have a larger stop-loss).
October 21, 2009 at 2:22 pm
CPR it looked liked a flagpole formation, a big candle (flagpole) then a few consolidation candles on Daily chart). So if you have an entry above the top of flagpole and a tight stop, 90% of the time it goes up.
This is how I see it. I am not an expert, just beginner learning from Mark’s trades
October 21, 2009 at 3:39 pm
I LOVE THIS PLACE !!!!
October 21, 2009 at 4:33 pm
We have 1.5010 at this time. What next? :)
October 21, 2009 at 5:25 pm
Yep it was a good day :) +300 pips ! thanks Mark !!! :)
Nou i see that i set take profit to low :D hehe ohh well you cant have everything …
I hope that soon it will start to show some bearish signals :/
hopefuly Mark will post some thing about it … update toodays trade :D
October 21, 2009 at 6:25 pm
you scored 300 pips from what entry? i got 4890 for the low point after the call for a long entry that around 4870. so i didn’t even get in
October 21, 2009 at 7:13 pm
one from 1.900 last night didnt close it till tooday and 4 more lots at diferend levels around 1.4925 …i set take profit for all 5 at 1.4975 because i get signals from Mark around 8am and go to work after i set up my trade . If would get back earlyer could set TP a bit higer :D
October 21, 2009 at 7:48 pm
scoring a 100 pips for 3 lots doesn’t mean you scored “300″ pips.
October 21, 2009 at 7:57 pm
100 pips with one lot or 100 pips with 10 lots its still a 100 pips profit .
I didnt said it made 300 pips from 1 lot …. for that i would have to be a wizard entering wright at the botom and going out wright at the top . Eaven pros enter higer and TP lower than pair went .
Just my opinion .
October 21, 2009 at 8:13 pm
you said:
“Yep it was a good day :) +300 pips ! thanks Mark !!! :)”
“100 pips with one lot or 100 pips with 10 lots its still a 100 pips profit .”
right, no one scored 300 pips today didn’t move 300 today from last entry
October 21, 2009 at 9:06 pm
I tried to scalp and got burned!!! Could have been up at least 80pips. Just got positive again on the last dip at 0.000 for a little bit of profit.
October 21, 2009 at 10:05 pm
Ed calm down on skalping and try to folow Marks signals and entry points .
If you are beginer skalping can make you some money at the start or if you are lucky but one wrong move and it will eat all your profits or eaven more .
As i started to learn my self and from Marks advices patience is GOLD in forex trading :)
October 21, 2009 at 10:49 pm
Thanks Jevgeni. In the 3rd week of my demo account and finding my main problem is impatience. What really saves me at the end of the day is my stop loss. Still lots to learn and this site helping me more and more each day. :)