October 30, 2009 03:43

Forex Signals – EUR/USD Breakout Pattern 10-30-09

By:

Today’s EURUSD Analysis: Short for yesterday was stopped out for a small loss yesterday as US GDP grew by 3.5% – more than expected and technically signaling an end to the US recession. There is still a lot of weakness in the US economy and much of that growth was driven by government programs/spending, but US stocks rallied nonetheless driving the EUR/USD past resistance levels. I talk about this a lot recently but you have to watch US stocks closely in this risk-appetite driven markets. Strong US stocks signal risk appetite which means the higher yielding Euro will perform better than the record-low interest rate USD will perform poorly. Yesterday was the strong day for US stock markets in 3 months – and the EUR/USD rallied over 100 pips.

Currently the pair is consolidating its gains in a tight 1.4820-1.4855 range which could make for a nice breakout.

Today’s Trading Idea and Signal: On the 4-hour chart we have a nice flagpole with a consolidation pattern forming in a flag pattern. Bias is to the upside. I will look to buy a sustained break of 1.4865 or, if the 60M candlestick is bullish buy near the bottom at 1.4820. Long targets would be 1.4895, 1.4925 and 1.4955. On a sustained break below 1.4815 my tendency would be to sell a rally for a re-challenge of 1.4750.

Have a great weekend all! I should have time this weekend to do some of the things I’ve been meaning to do with PipHut (candlestick article, update “How to Use PipHut’s Signals”, etc), and should be able to fix the loading problems some of our international users are having. Happy Pipping and have a Happy Halloween!

(click to enlarge)
eu103009breakout

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19 Comments on "Forex Signals – EUR/USD Breakout Pattern 10-30-09"
  1. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 05:18
    ZAR says:

    Hi, Yesterday I got in Short!
    Not sure why!
    But now sittingwith huge loss!
    Do you guys think I should stay in???

  2. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 05:24
    rizwan says:

    sir i m subscribe on your website but i reacive only convermation eamil after that i not reacive any type of chart and etc/ soo u sent me charts and etc
    i m wating

  3. Avatar of piphut
    Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 05:44
    piphut says:

    Personally I would cut my losses and close it. Why didn’t you use a stop loss??

  4. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 06:08
    ZAR says:

    Thank mark!
    Yes I am still learning!
    And it looks like I am learning the Hard way!
    I love your site Mark!
    Thank you

  5. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 06:53
    Duncan says:

    When I calculate the pivot points in the trading site that I use I rarely get the S1, S2 and R1, R2′s to match the support and resistance levels that you quote. I have been basing the pivots on the daily chart and for teh previous days trading – where am I going wrong?

    • Avatar of piphut
      Reply
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      Comment left on:
      October 30, 2009 at 14:47
      piphut says:

      When I calculate the pivot points in the trading site that I use I rarely get the S1, S2 and R1, R2’s to match the support and resistance levels that you quote. I have been basing the pivots on the daily chart and for teh previous days trading – where am I going wrong?

      Duncan, I don’t use pivot points. I use previous high/lows, fibonacci and experience.

  6. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 08:40
    ZAR says:

    Ok 1.4815 broke!
    Does this mean now we must SHORT???
    :)

    • Avatar of piphut
      Reply
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      Comment left on:
      October 30, 2009 at 14:42
      piphut says:

      Ok 1.4815 broke!
      Does this mean now we must SHORT???
      :)

      Nothing like a good breakout signal to get some pips before the weekend :)

  7. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 09:03
    ZAR says:

    Do you see a hammer forming on the 1hour graph?? Anyone?

  8. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 09:24
    zali says:

    yeah i saw,

  9. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 10:12
    Sergey says:

    I am in SHORT

  10. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 10:16
    ZAR says:

    Sergey, I am going to join you!!
    GOING SHORT
    :)

  11. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 10:41
    CROM says:

    On short you mean sell??!!

  12. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 11:12
    ZAR says:

    Yes SELL

  13. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 15:26
    Amr says:

    Mark… i think it will continue down to 1.4700 …what do u think ?

    • Avatar of piphut
      Reply
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      Comment left on:
      October 30, 2009 at 15:41
      piphut says:

      Mark… i think it will continue down to 1.4700 …what do u think ?

      Looks good to me. I’d move stop to break even or even lock in 10 or so pips and cover on a bullish reversal candlestick.

      • Avatar of piphut
        Reply
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        Comment left on:
        October 30, 2009 at 16:12
        piphut says:

        Very bullish looking hammer on the 1h chart last hour (15:00 GMT)

  14. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    October 30, 2009 at 22:22
    Nnagozie says:

    Hi Mark, please while working on your site this weekend can you include time when comments are made. It will really be of help to piphutters, thanks.

  15. Reply
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    Comment left on:
    November 17, 2009 at 22:34
    Albert Koons says:

    I found a link to your web site on a Forex website, and I should say… Your web site is tons better. You explain things better, thanks

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