Archive For "October, 2009"

10-19-09

5:39a GMT – Welcome back to PipHut for another week of pips, trading and discussion! So what has changed over the weekend. Well, for starters, just like that I am now looking to short the EUR/USD. Last week on the 15th and 16th we saw to peaks around around 1.4966. The second peak on the 16th was just a fraction of a pip lower but, more than that, it does (somewhat poorly, I know), resemble a bearish double-top on the 60M chart. US stocks, which have been very closely tied with the dollar performance are overbought and traders are looking for a reason to take some profits – Bernanke’s 2 speeches on Monday might give them the perfect chance to do that. On top of that,  early Sunday we’ve already seen our first lower daily low of the past 7 days – all signs pointing to a possible bearish day. Therefore, my trading strategies will be to fade rallies (e.g. sell rallies in the EUR/USD, especially on bearish candlestick signals and near resistance).

Trading Idea: We do have some resistance between 1.4900-1.4920 where I will especially look for some bearish reversal signals with short targets at 1.4870, 1.4840 and 1.4805.

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10-16-09

7:06a GMT – Thank goodness it is Friday at last! Yesterday’s signal yielded good pips as I took an entry order at the third level of support (1.4870) and rode it up to the failure at 1.4950. It was a quick trade – only took 4 hours or so to develop and the exit signal was a shooting star on the 1-hour. The 60M chart also looks suspiciously like a double-top is forming though that bump in the middle makes its appearance a little less than desirable. As we head into the last trading day of the week the bullish trend remains intact though we did have a nice stab downwards yesterday. If any trade looks good enough to enter before the weekend, for me, it will be to buy another dip int he 1.4870 range.

Trading Idea: Looking for another dip to the 1.4870 support area with targets back up to 1.4900, 1.4925 and 1.4955 (basically the same trade as yesterday).

(click to enlarge)

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9-15-09

5:05a GMT – As predicted bulls were firmly in control of the EUR/USD yesterday. In fact, as I type this you could have gone literally at any point yesterday – forget about candlesticks, support, dips, continuation – any point and you would have turned a profit. On a side note that is why I don’t try and fight the trend – look at all those bearish candlesticks we see on the 1-hour chart below! Shooting stars, dojis, bearish engulfing. You name it and it is there. And none of them were good, reliable signals in the medium-term. Because it has been a hot topic in the discussions recently I’m going to write an article on candlesticks this weekend – how to spot them, use them, when they are significant,etc., so feel free to put in any suggestions for that

On to today’s signal. It is hard to argue that we are in an easy-to-spot uptrend at the moment. Volatility has been decreasing and the pair has been drifting upward with little resistance. There is an argument for the EUR/USD being highly overbought and the markets overly-optimistic, but that is not for us to decide – just speculate on. I’ll look for a more major reversal around 1.5000 – a significant psychological resistance level. In the short-term I will trade with the trend and look to buy on dips.

Trading Idea: There are many possible support levels we could look for dips on, including 1.4920, 1.4900 and 1.4870. Which one you go with depends on how much risk (size of your stop-loss) you are willing to live with. Risk/reward. Long targets are at (from 1.4870): 1.4900, 1.4925, 1.4955 and eventually 1.4995.

(click to enlarge)

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10-14-09

5:33a GMT – Well the scores are in from yesterday’s bull/bear battle and the bulls definitely won that round. EUR/USD continues to hit new yearly highs, this time pushing close to 1.4890 while the USD index continues to drop through support like  a 1000-ton rock. There are a few signs of a major bearish reversal that could take place in the 1.49-1.50 range, but that is a topic for another day. Today, with the bulls firmly in charge, we will continue to look for buying opportunities starting at support above 1.4840. Nearest solid resistance is 1.4900 (just for being a large round number – there is psychological importance to this) and 1.4950 (which is resistance from over a year ago).

Trading Idea: Looking for buying opportunities on dips and near support. Would take a solid buy signal between support zones of 1.4860-1.4840. Long targets at 1.4890, 1.4920 and 1.4950.

(click to enlarge)

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10-13-09

6:31a GMT – Sometimes you just have to take a step back from the charts and think about what all those little candlesticks mean, and right now the dollar bulls and bears are locked in a struggle to determine the future of the currency. On the USD index charts (not shown) we can see the USD is against several different support levels vs. various currencies, and the EUR/USD itself is flirting with strong resistance at 1.4820. For our shorter term purposes the waters are nearly as murky – if you back out to the 4h chart you can see a giant V shape from late Septemeber to present, with a slight bullish bias. Though I am bearish in the long term, I will put my personal feelings aside and trade with the bullish, short-term trend.

Trading Idea: looking to buy near support above 1.4725. Long targets at 1.4755, 1.4790 and 1.4820.

(click to enlarge)

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10-12-09

6:36a GMT – Welcome back for another week, I hope everyone had a great weekend! Long-term signals for the EUR/USD remain bullish with daily and weekly charts showing a clear uptrend. However, the weekly chart shows a bearish doji a couple weeks ago and with the recent bearish break of a bullish consolidation channel I will continue to look for shorting opportunities in the short-term.

Trading Idea: I will look for bearish candlestick signals and failures in the resistance zone between 1.4755-1.4775 with short targets at 1.4735, 1.4700 and 1.4670.

(click to enlarge)

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10-9-09

3:02a GMT – Yesterday’s signal yielded good pips – how many depends on where you entered. I waited for pretty firm confirmation of a bounce which meant a full closure of the 15:00 candlestick on the 1 hour chart which means I didn’t get in until 1.4763 (signal was for a failure above 1.4720). I then covered on the failure to hit the 3rd target at 1.4820. I know some of the more aggressive of you bought in the 1.4725 area and this time it worked out for you :). On to today’s signal -

Short-term bull trend remains firmly intact. A glance at the 4-hour chart below can quickly show you we have been in an bullish channel since the early October low around 1.4500. For the regular PipHut followers you know I am medium and long-term bearish on the EUR/USD and think it is overbought, but in the short-term we will continue to trade with the short-term trend. I fully expect the pair to at the most hit 1.4850 and take a double-dip back down. But until then we stick with the system :).

Trading Idea: Looking to continue buying dips to an eventual re-challenge of 1.4850. Nearest support is 1.4720. Will look to buy around this level on a bullish signal (failure, candlestick, bounce) with long targets to 1.4755, 1.4790 and 1.4825.. Be weary of a break below the bottom trendline support (red diagonal trend line).

(click to enlarge)

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10-08-09

16:21 GMT – I came across some interesting statistics on PipHut from Alexa, and I thought I would share with you who uses PipHut’s forex signals. It turns out we are a pretty diverse crowd:

Top 2000 in Brunei, yes! That means there are only 1,598 websites more popular in the entire country! Of course, Brunei is tiny. If you look at the second chart, entitled “PipHut.com users come from these countries” we can see that almost 50% come from the U.S. even though in the US PipHut.com is only the 56,000th most popular site (or so). I guess 50,000th of the U.S. is a lot more people than 1,599th of Brunei :).

That’s the great thing about forex and forex signals – it’s a universal language :). Do you see your country listed here? Where are you from? Any ideas on getting into China?

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10-08-09

6:26a GMT – Picture perfect signal yesterday as all targets were hit for 75 pips. Would have been more but the I entered after the hammer signal on the 1-hour chart that pierced our entry at 1.4650. I circled the hammer candlestick on blue on the chart below so you all could see it. Nice formation, long wick pierced lows/support and body closed above intraday lows. From there it was more or less straight up. I keep saying it but I think the USD is overbought. But it doesn’t matter since we trade the trade and the trend is up. Another higher higher and volatility in the market seems to be decreasing which is a sign the trend has strength. Ultimately I will look for the pair to re-challenge the yearly high at 1.4850. Whether or not it will break that level I don’t know.

Trading Idea: Trend is up and I am looking to buy dips on a failure of support at 1.4720. Long targets at 1.4755, 1.4790 and 1.4825.

(click to enlarge)

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10-7-09

14:20a GMT – Here I am! Sorry about that – typed up the signal, did the analysis and forgot to hit “publish”. I’ve uploaded a new chart but the signal remains the same (and has not been tripped yet):

Forex waters remain choppy and trading is not for the faint of heart currently. With yesterday’s upward price movement on general US weakness, other currency’s strength and fears of it losing its currency status we have a new monthly high in place at 1.47612. Since then we have had a general downward motion in price movement, but if you pop out to the 4-hour chart (shown below) we can see it looks very much like a bullish flag consolidation pattern. Because of this I am generally bullish above 1.4650 and will look for buying opportunities in this area.

Trading Idea: Looking to buy a bounce/failure around 1.4650 with targets back up to 1.4695 and 1.4745.

(click to enlarge)

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