Archive For "November, 2009"

11-30-09

6:45a GMT – Last Friday’s trade went off smoothly for 130 pips profit. We had a nice long 1h wick in our support zone; combine that with a nice bullish doji on the 30m charts (reported at the candlestick alert service) and we had a good reason to enter the trade, in the direction of the trend WITH candlestick confirmation. This is the essence of PipHut style trading.

Quick note to all those new to PipHut. Please read the FAQ for PipHut’s Signals and the Read Me: Using These Signals for more answers to common questions on PipHut. Just a reminder: PipHut does NOT use technical indicators for analysis/entries. If you read a comment about a technical indicator that is an individual PipHut community member using that indicator, not me :). Also, with the holiday and recent website changes I have been slow in getting back to some emails and forum posts. Sorry about that and I will definitely catch up with you this week! Enjoy today’s weekly and daily analysis below:

Weekly Outlook: Pair continues to be completely bullish on the daily and weekly charts. Price action has been constrained to a fairly narrow bullish channel since the beginning of 2009 when the price had a low of 1.2456 in March! In fact, in case there were any doubters of the technical aspects of this trend we were also rewarded with a very bullish looking hammer on the daily charts Friday of last week.

Daily Outlook: Given the strength of the daily trend and the bullish hammer on last Friday’s daily chart we will continue to look for dips to reset longs on going into Monday of this week. Nearest support I would look for a buy signal is the 1.5000-1.4980 support zone.

Trading Idea: Looking to buy a failure of the 1.50-1.4980 support zone, preferably with candlestick confirmation signals. Long targets from 1.4980 are 1.5015, 1.5050 and 1.5080.

(click to enlarge)

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11-27-09

4:49a GMT – What happens when you put too much weight on thin ice? You break through it, a situation we saw yesterday as the markets attempted a huge rally on thin volume. They did succeed in that a new high was made and 1.5050 resistance was finally cracked however yesterday, when US banks were closed, that rally came crashing down and is currently sitting around 1.4915 support.

Daily Outlook: With big market moves we need bigger timeframes to more accurately gauge the strength of the rally. On the daily chart below we can clearly see that the bullish trend that has existed all year round is fully intact, if not stronger than ever because we just had a new high being made (which is a new high for 2009). Going into Friday I will be looking to buy on dips toward the bottom of this channel. I will be a bit conservative and give the pair some room to swing as I expect markets to still be a bit thin today.

Trading Idea: Looking to buy dips to 1.4870-1.4850 support area. Looking for a failure to buy or candlestick signal to confirm. Targets at 1.4910, 1.4950 and 1.4980.

By the way great conversation yesterday. I always love to see your own trading ideas, discussion and application of the PipHut methods. PipHut is all about you guys, the PipHut community :).

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No signals for the EUR/USD pair today as US Banks are closed for Thanksgiving holiday. From wikipedia:

“Thanksgiving Day is a harvest festival celebrated primarily in Canada and the United States. Traditionally, it is a time to give thanks for the harvest and express gratitude in general.”

No need to be from the US to celebrate this holiday – take a little time out to say “thanks” to the people who are important in your life and for all that you have!

Of course PipHut’s Forex Candlestick Signal Service is still running so feel free to check in there for candlestick alerts. Also you can catch up on some of the Learn Forex articles, post in the forums or feel free to discuss your day’s trades in the comments below as usual!

Best,

Mark

11-25-093

3:46a GMT – Resistance at 1.4980 proved to be the entry point yesterday as we got several bearish entry signals on the 30m and 1h charts to enter yesterday for about 60 pips (closed on failure of second target at 1.4915). By the way, the Candlestick Alert Service gave us several good signals on the 30m chart at 1.4980 – signals that yielded good pips if you were checking it out. I’ve gotten great feedback on the service so far, let me know your thoughts if you haven’t already.

Daily Outlook: Today I will pretty much sit on the sidelines no matter what happens. We have a major US holiday tomorrow (Thanksgiving) which means markets will be thin. Couple that with a variety of news events around the EUR and USD and you have a stop-killing-day waiting to happen. To those more adventurous souls we are nearing resistance at 1.5000 and 1.5015 if you are still looking for reasons to short. While we are still caught in the bearish channel yesterday stopped short of confirming the bearish trend.

Trading Idea: Again, I will be on the sidelines, but there will be selling opportunities at 1.50 and 1.5015 for those interested with targets down to 1.4950, 1.4915 and 1.4880.There will also be buying opportunities if you are feeling bullish on the pair with dips down to 1.4900.

(click to enlarge)

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I’m proud to roll out a few new services for PipHutters today, services that I think you will find extremely useful to help you trade better. Some of these services you may have noticed recently, others I bet you have not…

By far the most exciting of the new announcements, welcome the Candlestick Alert Service! No matter how good a trader you are sometimes you miss candlestick signals. The best of us do it. Not anymore!

What this little gem does is monitor the 30m and 1h charts of the EUR/USD and show you if any bullish or bearish candlestick signals have been detected! Now this is still in BETA, so I want to remind people that the presentation might still be a little rough around the edges but that is what I need your feedback for!

Right now the service will only detect candlesticks on the 30m and 1h of the EURUSD and I’m starting with only the doji, shooting star, hammer, inverted hammer and hanging man. Once I’m sure it is detecting those properly I will begin to roll out other patterns as well..

Click here to visit the Candlestick Alert Service

What could go better with the Candlestick Alert Service than a Candlestick Quick Reference guide? Not much! This is pretty short right now, because I wanted to only display candles that the alert service is currently detecting (see above for list). But on the quick reference guide if you click on the image or name of any candle it will bring you to a more detailed page.

Click here to visit the Candlestick Reference Guide.

I’ve had quite a few people ask me recently for a forex market hours tool, to see what markets are open and closed. Ask and you shall receive! Pretty self-explanatory. Check it out.

Click here to visit the Forex Market Hours page.

Yes, I know PipHut already had forums but, to be honest, I hated them. They were clunky, looked bad, were hard to navigate. I think these new forums (hopefully you agree) will be much easier for everyone to use. I know that the comments section of the posts are easier (and in many cases better) for discussing the day’s trading, but there are some things much easily discussed in a forum, such as trading systems that you can refer back to, ongoing conversations about a news event, commodities, OR if you want to post a chart or keep a journal thread going.

By the way, if you start a thread and aren’t getting much traction just let me know, I’ll post a link to it front and center on the main site and give you plenty of traffic.

Click here to visit the Candlestick Reference Guide.

11-24-09

7:10a GMT – I’ve got some exciting additions to PipHut to announce – I was going to just tack them on to the bottom of this signal but thought they were exciting enough to warrant a second post so keep your eyes open for a another post a few minutes after this one.

Yesterday we did indeed get a nice bounce off of the channel resistance and I went short after a bearish engulfing on the 15:00 1h charts (with an entry at 1.4980). Took half the profits at 1.4950 and covered the rest at 1.4915.

Daily Outlook: As you can see from the 4-hour chart below we have dropped back into the middle of the short-term bearish channel (which is still in the middle of a longer-term bull channel). I am still net bearish as long as this short-term bear channel is intact and 1.5050 remains to cap any gains. Also, make sure to mind the news events today. A few big events that could make staying out of the markets the best choice at certain times.

Trading Idea: I wouldn’t buy or sell in the middle of this channel as a proper risk/reward would be hard to obtain, so I will wait for a rise to 1.4990 for another shorting opportunity with short targets at 1.4950, 1.4915 and 1.4880.

(click to enlarge)

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11-23-09

7:14a GMT – Welcome back for another great week of trading! Signal is out a little later than usual this morning – I was working on something to do with the candlestick article (which will be out later today if all goes well). Quick recap of Friday’s signals the trend was indeed down and there were some good selling signals that yielded good pips if you were looking for them. Those sitting on entries around 1.4950 never got them tripped, unfortunately.

Daily Outlook: A lot of action already this morning! We have seen the EUR/USD rise over 130 pips to the top of the short-term bearish channel (shown on the daily chart below). I’ve posted a daily chart below so we could take a step back and look at the overall trend. We have been caught in a bearish channel for the past couple weeks but you can clearly see that the long-term trend is to the upside. Because this is a bit of a tricky situation it will call for extra-careful trading.

Trading Idea: As long as the pair remains under bearish resistance I remain short-term bearish and will look to sell for a compelling candlestick signal / failure of 1.4990. It will require a confirmation signal. Those short targets at 1.4955, 1.4915 and 1.4880. If 1.5000 has a sustained break, however, I will switch to buying on dips around 1.4950 for a re-challenge of 1.5050.

P.S. you might notice a few changes/additions to the site today such as the “Forex Market Hours” under Tools and new forums. I’ll be sending out an email later to go over these changes and a few more :).

Happy Pipping!

(click to enlarge)

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11-20-09

6:00a GMT – Entry yesterday was never reached around 1.4950 as the pair continued to consolidate in an ever-tightening triangle consolidation pattern. We did have a few good candlesticks yesterday on the 30m and 1h that yielded good pips if you had your eyes open for them. The triangular consolidation pattern is taking place within the medium-term bear channel, which is taken place within the long-term bull channel. Confused yet? Just another day in the forex markets.

Daily Outlook: In the short-term I will look for range opportunities in the triangular consolidation with a definite leaning towards bearish trades and selling on rallies. I will look for bearish candlesticks to confirm, and look for entries around 1.4950-1.4980 resistance.

Trading Idea: Shorts preferred. From 1.4980 resistance targets are 1.4950, 1.4915, 1.4880.

(click to enlarge)

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11-19-09

5:14a GMT – I took a short yesterday just above our signals entry resistance at 1.4860 (after candlestick confirmation on the 4-hour chart). There was confirmation on both the GMT (hanging man) and GMT+1 (double doji) creating a compelling signal to short near the top of channel resistance. All around a good trade. Currently still in it and will be covering shortly, but in the meantime will look to reset shorts on today’s analysis:

Daily Outlook: The bearish bias continues as channel resistance proved too much for bulls to beat, creating a new lower high and confirming our short-term bearish bias. I will look for rallies near resistance to re-enter my shorts on candlestick confirmation.

Trading Idea: Nearest resistance I will look for shorting opportunities is the 1.4930-1.4950 zone, unless there is a very compelling candlestick signal. Targets at 1.4910, 1.4880, 1.4850 and 1.4825.

(click to enlarge)

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11-18-09

5:25a GMT – Signal is short and sweet today! By the way, I loved the discussion yesterday. Everyone was participating, sharing their trades/ideas, etc. That is what PipHut is all about – you guys! The pair did dive for over 150 pips after yesterday’s short signal – unfortunately it never turned up enough to even threaten our entry below 1.5050 so the trade went untriggered.

Daily Outlook: Today we do have CPI news coming out for the USD – which offers us a glimpse into the inflationary pressures in the US. Too much inflation and Fed would be pressured to raise interest rates. Higher interest rates means a stronger USD. So, indirectly, lots of inflation can signal future USD gains (though in the short-term it often means the opposite). That comes out at 8:30a GMT.

Trading Idea: Below 1.5050 I remain short-term bearish as the pair remains in a bearish channel with its longer-term uptrend. I will look for shorting opportunities in the 1.4950 resistance area with targets at 1.4910, 1.4880, 1.4850 and 1.4820. Caution is definitely advised on this trade, however, as signals are mixed at best. Recommend waiting for candlestick confirmation.

(click to enlarge)

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