11-13-09
6:26a GMT – What is it about Fridays that makes me not want to trade? Huge drop in the EUR/USD yesterday that kicked out my stop for a small loss (that’s why we always use stops and use good money management, right?) The pair did take an initial bounce of of 1.4950, good for any scalpers, but reversed just short of our first target under 1.4985. We also have some big event risks coming up shortly this morning on Eurozone and German economic numbers. I’ve noticed that frequently before a news event big market makers push the market in the opposite direction that the news will push it before a event risk – presumably to stop hunt. If that is the case we could see a big retracement in the pair tomorrow.
The other scenario I see as likely is a consolidation between 1.4930-1.4810.
Trading Idea: Given the event risk, the big jump yesterday and the general lack of clear direction in the market I will be sitting on the sidelines tomorrow. For aggressive traders I might look for a sell signal between resistance zones at 1.4900-1.4930 with targets at 1.4870, 1.4840 and 1.4810.
Side note: I’ve got some exciting stuff I’m working on this weekend for PipHut for you. I don’t want to ruin the surprise or get your hopes up but I should have something pretty neat for you on Monday if all goes well.
(click to enlarge)
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November 13, 2009 at 07:33
Lots of news to digest today…..
EUR German Prelim GDP q/q
EUR French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q
EUR French CPI m/m
EUR French Prelim GDP q/q
EUR Italian Prelim GDP q/q
EUR Flash GDP q/q
EUR Buba President Weber Speaks
USD Import Prices m/m
USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
USD Natural Gas Storage
USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Check your currency calendars for your corresponding date/time zone
November 13, 2009 at 08:09
My view yesterday night was that the pair just bottomed at a very important fib level – 50% of the last leg up from 1.4625 to 1.5045 and one of my possible scenarios is a retracement back up. I got long at 1.4840 (hammer on 4hour chart earlier today), because of the news coming i’ve already put my SL to break even. If the market decides to make me few pips to the upside I’ll be happy, if not, so be it Have a nice weekend everyone
November 13, 2009 at 08:16
yeah, play beetween 38,2 and 50 fib is my point for today.
November 13, 2009 at 08:14
Also my point is he will build on H4 now the second shoulder and than we can go south.
I’m long from 835 SL 810 -> TP 895-900 than again short …
November 13, 2009 at 08:16
Do we wait for candlestick confirmation at those resistances or set entry orders there?
November 13, 2009 at 08:24
Here my view -> http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/2456/myview.gif
November 13, 2009 at 08:39
Xtravaganz, how did you do that? I will like to upload some charts here
November 13, 2009 at 08:42
is very easy -> go to -> http://imageshack.us/
upload ur file and u get a link to it :)
November 13, 2009 at 09:11
trying to get out with little loss in eu then hopefully will go short thanx
November 13, 2009 at 09:47
I hear you Jacques. Still trying to recover some of my loss’s from yesterday. Went short @ 1.4890.
November 13, 2009 at 09:11
its 1.4900, anyone going short? what confirmation should we look for? please post in like Xtravaganz on imageshack
November 13, 2009 at 09:14
whoops sorry that was 14890
November 13, 2009 at 12:28
I see at S&P500 looks like it might be breaking out of its uptrend for today. I think we might have a drop on our hands soon (EURUSD). Anyone ahve anythoughts about this.
November 13, 2009 at 15:18
(EURUSD 1h)See the shape? From about 4th / 5th Nov to now. 1.4800 to 1.5050. U think thats a pattern that is about repeat itself? Seams likely to me that it could go up and down like this for a few days.
November 13, 2009 at 15:18
Had 2 lots short. 1st lot TP +30pips. 2nd lot moved up 30pips to lock profit. Will let it ride down from here.
Thanks Mark ( and Tom )!!!
November 13, 2009 at 17:41
hey guys, it just hit 14930… and it seems its facing resistance.. anyone going short?
November 13, 2009 at 17:55
Yep, short at 1.4925 TP 1.4835
November 13, 2009 at 18:00
Pretty much been on the sideline today.
Thanks Mark again for another great week of learning and trading experience. Fellow Piphutters have a wonderful weekend!!!!!
November 13, 2009 at 18:01
Markusm=, if that works, that 90 pips :) hopefully it will, for me am still new, so am gonna sit and do the TP manually when i feel thretened, but my i ask u why u say 14835? is there a support there? on which chart? thx
November 13, 2009 at 18:20
Hassan, Im fairly new to this as well. Ive been looking at an hourly chart today of EURUSD and zoom out so i can see from 4th NOV to now. Ive been looking at the highs and lows at about 4th to 6th november today. It made me some money today. (but it might also been pure luck, so no guaranties)
November 13, 2009 at 18:29
a right, about the suport… draw a line from 05 nov low, to 13 nov low, and i think you will see it. 1.4835 is about. I will probably close it sooner, cuz im not sure it will be able to do so much now.
November 13, 2009 at 18:58
Mark,
Before I go. I just wanted to ask question about the good management information.
If you keep trading at the break even levels, how do you get an opportunity to grow your account? Fore example if I am trading at the 3:1 ratio and just say I am +100 pips, -25 pips, -25 pips, and -25 pips then that just keep breaking me even. But how do you get ahead if you just keep breaking even?
I might be missing the key elements about this.
November 13, 2009 at 19:12
Lisa, the key element I think you are overlooking is that, for example, with the 3:1 ratio while you could break even winning 25% the goal is to win more than 25% of your trades. Say you win 1 out of every 3 trades (33%). With the SL and TP info you listed (SL=25 pips, TP=100 pips) if you won 1 out of 3 that means you made 100 pips (1×100) and lost 50 pips (2×25).
So with every 3 trades, on average, you grow your account 50 pips.
Does that help clear it up? What the article was saying is that with proper money management even if you do lose more trades than you win you can still be profitable.
November 13, 2009 at 19:31
Mark, if i lose a trade i duble the lots, until i win? I have thought about doing this, didnt try it yet, with any consistency anyways. Is that sometihng you would advise against or do you think its an ok strategy?
November 13, 2009 at 19:36
Markus, I don’t like the sounds of that strategy. That’s actually a common roulette strategy (bet small on black, if you lose – double it, if you lose again – redouble, etc. The problem is the casino always sets a limit the size of the wager (meaning you can’t double it forever) and eventually you lose big. While there is practical cap to the size of trade you use in Forex, the more realistic cap would be your equity. Eventually if you lost and doubled enough you’d run out of money. Also working against you would be the spread your broker takes out of every trade.
November 13, 2009 at 19:46
Got it, Skipping that then. Thanx for answer
November 13, 2009 at 19:39
Also am i only lucky today, when i look at the otehr side of the “hill” Around 4th to 8th Nov. Im suprised at how well it worked so far today. Do you think it might continue to follow that pattern in reverse for some time next week?
November 13, 2009 at 19:54
Mark,
Yes, this clears it up. Basically, my goal is to increase my winning trade percentage thereby increasing my profits. I also understand the article more clearer.
November 13, 2009 at 19:24
Plenty of bearish candlesticks on the 30M eurusd chart near 1.4930 resistance but both the 30m and 60m charts resemble a bullish flag pattern as well.
November 13, 2009 at 20:00
nice drop here
November 13, 2009 at 20:05
sure is.
November 13, 2009 at 20:17
Lisa I responded to your original hedging question in the money management article and deleted the one here.
November 13, 2009 at 20:27
I will remain short into the weekend with a SL above last weeks high
November 13, 2009 at 20:27
this weeks high I mean, sorry
November 13, 2009 at 20:48
Anyone knows if theres any news to be expected (EUR or USD) on monday?
November 13, 2009 at 20:52
We’re supposed to get the retail sales data for the US at 1:30p GMT. It is forecast to be positive news for the US economy.
November 13, 2009 at 21:17
K, looking forward to that then. Time to punch out for the week soon. Have a good one everyone.
November 13, 2009 at 23:15
Mon
Nov 16
EUR Buba President Weber Speaks
EUR CPI y/y
EUR Core CPI y/y
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m
USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
USD Business Inventories m/m
USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
November 14, 2009 at 03:40
I enter bearish, nice pips today, thanks!!!