11-11-09
6:26a GMT – It was one of those rare days when it was hard not to make money off of a pair. The EUR/USD cooperated beautifully with our signal from yesterday, dipping into support 3 times and each time rising for at least 50 pips. Even if you were more conservative on the day and waited for candlestick confirmation the pair gave us not 1, not 2 but 3 bullish hammers on the 16:00-18:00 GMT candlesticks to confirm the bullish reversal.
Today we look for more of the same (buying on dips) however I will be a bit more conservative today as the pair has been making some lower lows, lower lows recently which gives me concern that we could be facing a steeper retracement ahead. In favor of the bullish view, however, is the fact that the daily charts appear to show a bullish flagpole/consolidation pattern flag the past several days, signifying possibly more gains ahead.
Trading Idea: Today I will look for buying opportunities above 1.4930 with long targets at 1.4955, 1.4990 and 1.5015.
(click to enlarge)
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November 11, 2009 at 8:03 am
Good morning gents… just wanted to tell you that we have a big climb at the moment, 1.5020
November 11, 2009 at 8:03 am
Looks like its too late for me to get in now. I will wait for a pull back. Hope it works the same as yesterday.:)
November 11, 2009 at 9:22 am
waiting for a pull back is working for me thanx
November 11, 2009 at 9:40 am
me too. waiting for pullback but can we share together when we would see it appropritae to enter market.. just so that we get the same picture
November 11, 2009 at 9:54 am
What price will you guys wait for a pull back to and is that still recommended for today?
November 11, 2009 at 10:36 am
Hi Darren,
you can find the answer to your question in Mark’s post. You have it here:
“Trading Idea: Today I will look for buying opportunities above 1.4930 with long targets at 1.4955, 1.4990 and 1.5015.”
So if you see an hammer on a 1HR chart close to the 1.4930-50 area do get in the ride upwards!
November 11, 2009 at 10:34 am
very good blog! do you give signals every day? what time GMT?
November 11, 2009 at 10:38 am
Andy,
you got the answer just beneath the signal tittle:
“Signal posted on November 11, 2009, at 6:21 am GMT”
Usually Mark posts the signals between 6-7am GMT
November 11, 2009 at 10:42 am
Cheers mate, just dont know what a hammer is :(
November 11, 2009 at 11:07 am
me too, i need to knwo what a hammer is, i mean i sometimes see hammers but eithe red or green.. which do i enter with? and do u think it will drop to 1.4930 again today? after this new high, isnt there a new support & resistance?
November 11, 2009 at 11:28 am
Both the hammers and hanging man’s patterns have short body candles. They will have a very small upper shadow or none at all. But, if a lower shadow is present, it will be at least twice as long as the candle body. Hammers are formed after declines in the market and hanging man’s patterns are formed after the market has experienced advances.
When they are confirmed, they become powerful signals for reversals. The color of these two patterns is unimportant, but some consider white hammers and black hanging man’s to be more reliable signs of reversal. These two patterns indicate a bullish trend with low to moderate rates of reliability.
November 11, 2009 at 12:12 pm
Tom,
I thought a hangman pattern indicates a bearish trend and the the hammer pattern indicates a bullish trend. Please correct me if this is not the case because I’m just learning.
November 11, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Tom,
Good website.
However, I am still looking to confirm that a hangman indicates a bearish trend after an advance has occurred.
Thanks
November 11, 2009 at 11:30 am
lol i think i should go read your link…cheers mate
November 11, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Hello all,
I wonder if you may be able to offer some nice resources to help me understand how to read the charts that you all refer to in your analsyis. Mark, do you have an area on your site relating to candlesticks, resistance, support, hammers etc ? I’m following the conversations, but some illustrations would also be nice
Thanks
Paul
November 11, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Paul, I don’t have an article on hammer formations yet, but you I do have one on support/resistance. On the left side where it says “Learn Forex: Support and Resistance” or click this link:
http://piphut.com/learn-forex/learn-forex-2-support-and-resistance/
November 11, 2009 at 2:23 pm
everyone should do through the school there if they are going to trade forex……
November 11, 2009 at 12:28 pm
hi darren, it’s worth noting the fact that mark’s signal was out b4 1.5023 (nov 9th & 10th. highs) was broken (i.e.around 0703gmt..hence the pivots have moved higher.i doubt if it could break 1.4980..anyway let’s see how strong the bear is.
November 11, 2009 at 12:29 pm
GBPUSD….
Anyone in this? I am thinking about going long but do not know what to make of the BOE Inflation Report.
TIA
November 11, 2009 at 2:11 pm
Hi Ed,
It can be a nice call. No is about 1.666 and has a nice support about 1660. The trend continues to be UP and the last hour candlestick points towards the trend. Regarding the BOE report I do not know how to trade with it, perhaps in DailyFx or fx360 you can find some news. Technically, at least for me, points up.
November 11, 2009 at 2:25 pm
The pound after Kings comments, now needs to be re-evaluated…Look to the $ index and the SP500 as well as the dow to help with the new direction but I am leaning now towards shorts, short term if any
November 11, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Hey Nuno,
I jumped in for a long about an hour ago. Yes, the Tech looks good to me too. Wish I knew more about deciphering the fundamentals though. :-(
Many thanks for feed back!!!
November 11, 2009 at 2:51 pm
on daily chart we have a doji followed by a hanging man of GBP/Lfx this is a bearish signal. I cant post a chart but look at dollar index as well and see where it sits, on a cliff but I think we see some more topside before it falls off the cliff
November 11, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Thanks Tom. Yes, it looks like my SL’s are about to get wiped out. :(
November 11, 2009 at 3:44 pm
sorry to hear that, I hold shorts from 6825 looking for 6400 area as first target
November 11, 2009 at 4:00 pm
It’s all good. That’s what SL’s are for. Looks like your gonna make out very well on those shorts!!!
Thanks Tom!
November 11, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Hi Tom,
what timeframe and analysis do you use to go for those targets, more than 400 pips? I’am not yet psicologically able to do a trade like unless I’am without internet connection!:) otherwise I would close the trade with 100 pips or less. Do you have msn?
November 11, 2009 at 4:37 pm
Tom…
Can you tell me what Lfx is? Is it something collective to a pair? Meaning GBP/Lfx is compared to all other currencies it’s paired to.
Thanks!
November 11, 2009 at 4:42 pm
LFX is a basket of currencies…look here for the charting software. I find that the lfx market is a bit leading to the forex market, I will post a link later, have to run out right now
November 11, 2009 at 4:44 pm
in the LFX market we can see only 8 index as follows:
1-USD LFX
2-EUR LFX
3-LFX JPY
4-GBP LFX
5-AUD LFX
6-NZD LFX
7-CAD LFX
8 CHF LFX
also calculations are as follows:
EUR LFX / USD LFX =EURUSD
USD LFX * LFX JPY =USDYEN
GBP LFX / USD LFX =GBPUSD
AUD LFX / USD LFX =AUDUSD
NZD LFX / USD LFX =NZDUSD
USD LFX / CAD LFX =USDCAD
USD LFX / CHF LFX =USDCHF
also calculations are cross pair as follow
November 11, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Mark,
How does the flagpole pattern look on the daily chart you mentioned above?
November 11, 2009 at 1:22 pm
Looks like it broke to the upside
November 11, 2009 at 1:46 pm
hi mark i always got you r mail so late …so tell me how can i get this early… thankx you are doing great job.
November 11, 2009 at 1:50 pm
wisit this website before you get the mail :D
November 11, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Nuno I have skype only. I only mentioned the GU because it was brought up but I think we need to keep everything on subject… and thats piphuts calls not mine….I do nothing special but also trade off from S/R and look at the fundis and techs combined. If you want to talk give me a skype name but not in here, I respect Piphut too much
November 11, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Thanks Tom. I’m always (just) learning, so any input is good. I also respect a lot Mark’s page, is my confirmation site for EURUSD. I do not trade full time, and I can not use Skype during day schedule… So I guess it is difficult to talk. But thanks a lot! Bye
November 11, 2009 at 5:00 pm
you can email me br_foot@yahoo.com, I will be out most of the day today and BTW I have closed out my GU shorts and will let the market settle down to give better direction from this drop and all the news lately
November 11, 2009 at 4:49 pm
@Musa
If you have problems getting the email, subscribe to the rss feed using your email client, You almost instantly receive the message in your inbox when Mark posts it , regardless of the timezones.
November 11, 2009 at 4:51 pm
http://piphut.com/feed/ Feed Link
November 11, 2009 at 5:20 pm
plz help me understand how u get your trading signals and how you get to understand the fundamentals so well…
November 11, 2009 at 5:22 pm
Quick note – guys, no problem with you posting links to other sites for education purposes, I think it’s great, but please post them in the forums (http://piphut.com/forex-discussion)
Thanks!
November 11, 2009 at 11:25 pm
sorry sir, will do from now on
thanks for everything
November 11, 2009 at 8:01 pm
the candle on the eur/usd @ 18:00 could that be classed as a spinning top, and the following candle could that be a inverted hammer, not sure, neither look perfect
November 12, 2009 at 12:29 am
I think we test the highs again before another more sustained drop towards 4900 and below