11-4-09
7:26a GMT – We saw what we expected yesterday – there was a bearish bias and we saw a drop of 160+ pips, but support was found near the bottom of the range and since the price has drifted up to the 1.4730 area. Price action never saw the top of the range and the aggressive downward swing broke the bottom support putting the pair into a bearish channel. On the 4-hour and daily charts this bearish channel is beginning to look like a bearish continuation pattern meaning more downside to come.
Trading Idea: Will look to sell at resistance near 1.4755 or near the top of the channel (currently at 1.4800). Pair is currently drifting at 1.4725 resistance and I will sell this area with a strong candlestick confirmation signal. Short targets from 1.4800 are 1.4765, 1.4730, 1.4690 and 1.4655.
(click to enlarge)
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November 4, 2009 at 06:43
Ok my analysis agree with yours! Exactly
First time! :)
Piphut has trained me well!
Thank you Mark
November 4, 2009 at 07:58
Are you looking for a strong candle signal on a 4hr or 1hr chart – or does it not make much difference?
November 4, 2009 at 14:53
Doesn’t matter – and doesn’t look like we’ll see one now.
November 4, 2009 at 08:02
Hello Mark, do you view the current doji on the 1hour chart as a valid short-signal candle , or you only look for shooting starts and hammers?
November 4, 2009 at 14:52
Nick, not sure which doji you are talking about. Can you upload an image to the forums?
November 4, 2009 at 15:04
it was the one that closed at 8 am gmt… it obviously didnt produce a short, i didnt go in though.
November 4, 2009 at 08:09
Hey Mark, i’ve got similar questions to the ones above concerning what time frame and candlestick patterns to look out for, in this case when price approaches resistance ? Good job on the improvements, keep it up !
November 4, 2009 at 08:49
hey mark, like ur signal and think we could buy at 14680 for long again. only asking thanks
November 4, 2009 at 09:01
please if anyone is seeing a reversal on eur, please post it?!
Thank you
November 4, 2009 at 11:17
Hi all,
I think today is better to wait until the main news from the FOMC and ECB come out, during the afternoon.
November 4, 2009 at 11:31
Yes guys please be extremely aware of FOMC rate decision today at 19:15 GMT. This can cause some serious movement and if you get caught on the wrong side you are going to feel some pain.
November 4, 2009 at 12:27
From what I understand….
If there is a rate hike the USD will rally.
If there is a rate cut the USD will be bearish.
What I don’t understand is if the analyst are correct, and the rate remains the same, how will the market react?
According to my currency events calender….
“Rates Left Unchanged : The reaction of the US dollar will depend upon whether the Fed is pausing after a prolonged tightening or easing cycle or has been pausing for some time. If it comes after a tightening cycle, it would be perceived as dollar bearish. If it is after an easing cycle, it would be perceived as dollar bullish. If they have been pausing for months already, the reaction would probably be more neutral.”
How do you find out if there was a “tightening, easing or pausing”?
November 4, 2009 at 12:33
I really dont know, i read different opinions everywhere… Since i got burned on news last month im generally sitting on my hands while major news are releasing. Maybe Mark can give us some insight on the fundamentals around FOMC meeting.
November 4, 2009 at 12:48
Yes Nick. Its wise to wait on the news. :)
Did you see the AUD reaction to news yesterday?
November 4, 2009 at 12:58
I live in europe and was asleep during the AUD news, but yeah those moves are really scary when you arent prepared… I am very fresh into forex (just 2 months) and thats one of the major things Ive learned – be aware of the news and dont trade them when you dont really understand forex
November 4, 2009 at 13:01
Looks like we have bearish candlesticks for 30m, 60m, and 1hr. All at the close.
November 4, 2009 at 13:02
ADP Employment Change
Wednesday 4th November
13.15 GMT
FOMC Rates Decision
Wednesday 4th November
19.15 GMT
Non Farm Payrolls
Friday 6th November
13.30 GMT
November 4, 2009 at 13:05
Yes Ed, everything looks bearish!
I am going in for the Short… :)
November 4, 2009 at 13:21
Remember, there is news coming out on the USD.
November 4, 2009 at 13:18
Nick.
I live in India and up when the Autralia and Tokyo are live. Like you, I am a noobee to forex ( just over one month now ) and have been burned by the news a few times myself. There is so many things one must be aware of before they pull the trigger. ;)
November 4, 2009 at 13:23
In the 1 hr chart is that candle a hangman? ( 11 GMT).Is that a solid confirmation or is there something else we need to be looking for. Thank you
November 4, 2009 at 13:47
Resistance reaches at 1.4795… It looks going bearish ;-)
November 4, 2009 at 14:08
I am waiting for this hours candlestick (14:00 GMT)to close before I will go short, maybe 1.4813 might be a good resistance, I will wait and see
November 4, 2009 at 14:16
anyone going short? and please can anyone put an image or graph what what made him/her go short? like the candle stick etc..
purpose it to learn more .
thx
November 4, 2009 at 14:58
Is eur still Bearish??????
November 4, 2009 at 15:00
It’s at the very top of its channel so I have to say “yes” however there has been no short signal yet. Markets are thin right now due to the rate decision so false breakouts are more likely.
November 4, 2009 at 14:58
Rate decision today is causing a lot of volatility with the pair. Pair has pierced top resistance now, though we haven’t see a sustained break yet…
November 4, 2009 at 15:06
has the game plan changed? cos on the 4hr chart the pair is moving higher, are we to look for bearish candlestick around 1.4860 resistance?
November 4, 2009 at 15:06
So will you still bearish Mark??
Where is the next ressistance?
November 4, 2009 at 15:20
that is a sustained break of resistance now. I’m waiting until after the FOMC rate decision for trading the EUR/USD today (4hrs). Markets are too thin right now and being driven.
November 4, 2009 at 15:23
I am thinking next resistance is 1.4925 going back to the high on 10/27.
November 4, 2009 at 21:40
Ed,
How did you conclude that 1.4925 was the next resistance up when there looked like (to me) there were others resistances before the 1.4925?
November 5, 2009 at 05:15
Lisa,
I was looking back to the high on 10/27. But as Mark pointed out already, resistance levels did not matter much today. Seems like news emotion took over the EURUSD.
November 4, 2009 at 15:33
This looks very similar to yesterdays AUD before confirmation of the interest rate.
November 4, 2009 at 17:04
is that shooting star (16:00 GMT) a valid sell signal? Is there any one going short?
November 4, 2009 at 17:29
Is this shooting star on the 1 hr or 4-hr chart? My charts on my platform are in eastern time; therefore, I think the 16:00 GMT will be 11:00 am, eastern time on my charts.
November 4, 2009 at 17:47
Therewas a shooting star on the 1h chart last hour
November 4, 2009 at 20:58
Yes, I saw it but I don’t think it turned out to be very useful at that time. I guess because there was no confirmation on the next candlestick.
November 4, 2009 at 17:15
Any one can guess the market trend
November 4, 2009 at 17:19
Nnagozie,
if you take a look at a 5min chart you’ll notice that the market is “dead calm” for sometime now, meaning that everybody is waiting for the FOMC announcement and meeting minutes, and nobody knows where the market will bo after. From previous announcements my experience says that is better to sit quiet. But that dependes on you, you can always take a small risk entering now and put the SL just above the top of that shooting star.
Regards
November 4, 2009 at 17:22
Mark do you think we will see sl hunting at first?
November 4, 2009 at 17:23
We usually do..
November 4, 2009 at 19:53
Anyone know the out come of the FOMC rate decision? My currency event calender has not posted it yet. :(
November 4, 2009 at 20:36
They kept it at 0.25% as expected. Comments said it would remain there for an ‘extended’ period.
November 5, 2009 at 02:04
Thanks Mark. I just went short now. The 30m, 60m and 4h all bearish at the close.
November 4, 2009 at 20:01
I think I will go long, maybe at 1.4840, what do you guys think?
November 4, 2009 at 21:47
At this time, I am a little confused and sorry if this question seems silly.
Since we are supposed to be trading with the trend is the trend still bearish or has it changed to bullish? Is it that the news of the FOMC has changed the sentiment to bullish temporarily and therefore we should just wait until we can tell the sentiment again without the news before we entry a trade?
November 5, 2009 at 02:19
almost 200 pips bullish, and now what? swing? continue rally?
November 5, 2009 at 03:36
jason ….Take your profit!!