11-3-09
5:26a GMT – I’m glad to hear that everyone likes PipHut’s new layout and that the new server is loading faster and more reliably for everyone that responded. Well we did indeed have a nice bounce off of yesterday’s support at 1.4725 before the pair rose over 180 pips! A nice trade for those who entered. Personally I did not enter because my system called for a bullish candlestick signal and there was no signal on the 30m, 60m or 4h charts, and for these signals I generally stay conservative.
For today’s signal we have found the EUR/USD bouncing between the 38.2 and 61.8% retracements of the October low/highs (at 1.4850 and 1.4700, respectively – see yellow lines on chart below), setting up a good range trade. At this point even though the pair has bounced twice off support in the past few days, my bias is a bit to the downside with the large bearish engulfing candle we had on the weekly charts last week. Taking that into account I will still look to trade both range directions on failures I might be a bit more aggressive near the top of the range.
Trading Idea: Looking to short on failure of 1.4840 or go long on failure of 1.4700. Short targets from 1.4840 at 1.4810, 1.4775, 1.4745 and 1.4705. Long targets from 1.4700 at 1.4730, 1.4765, 1.4810 and 1.4840.
(click to enlarge)
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November 3, 2009 at 09:52
Thanks for the 54pips Mark!!!
November 3, 2009 at 14:32
:)
November 3, 2009 at 09:57
Anyone going for BULLISH??
buying at 4700
Or must I wait for any confirmation??
November 3, 2009 at 14:31
Depends on your trading style / trade setup if you wait for confirmation or go in naked (without confirmation). In general there is a trade-off between confirmation and no confirmation – the more you wait for confirmation the worse entry price you get BUT the higher percentage of trades you win. Without waiting for confirmation you will get a better entry price but will get in on more bad trades.
That doesn’t mean I always wait for confirmation – if we are in a STRONG uptrend and there is a dip to good support then it could be a good setup to buy on.
November 3, 2009 at 10:03
looks more like a descending triangle.
November 3, 2009 at 10:06
Jasper, what does that mean?
Bearish? or Bullish??
November 3, 2009 at 10:13
I am still new to forex trading!
But it looks like if there is some support at 1.4616 (daily fibonacci 76.4%)…
Is this right?
Do you think we can BUY????
Thank you in advance
November 3, 2009 at 14:27
There is support in the 1.4620-1.4600 area but not because of the 76.4% fib – that just adds to it. It was a 4h low a few weeks back.
November 3, 2009 at 10:24
Bearish means that chart line will go down, bulish means that it will go up
November 3, 2009 at 10:34
pnd, yes I know that!
But descending triangle??
November 3, 2009 at 11:07
Descending Triangle Chart Pattern
http://www.fxwords.com/d/descending-triangle.html
November 3, 2009 at 11:09
Thank you ED!!!
I do appreciate it…
Do you think it will get support at 1.4616???
November 3, 2009 at 11:30
I have support line at 1.4615. But thats not using a fib. Using a 4 hour chart looking back at 9/15, 9/21 and 9/24 support levels. But I could be wrong. ;)
November 3, 2009 at 14:32
exactly.
November 3, 2009 at 11:34
Thank you ED! I think that is helping!
I am going to BUY near that support levels.
Thank you!
Would like to hear what Mark is saying about this 1.4615???
November 3, 2009 at 12:23
Is that a hammer forming on the 1hour chart??
Anyone?
November 3, 2009 at 13:58
I think that our preveuse suport 1.4700 might become our new resistance since he Euro drop trugh like a rock lol
and wright nou it doesent look like its going back up :/
November 3, 2009 at 14:28
We have a possible bullish doji forming on the 4 hour chart
November 3, 2009 at 14:35
Thank you Mark!
Do you think it is now a good BUY?
And where would you take profit??
What do you think about the 1.4615 support?
I just want to know if I am on the right path… :)
November 3, 2009 at 14:39
Zar, if the 4h doji closes I would consider buying for the short-term (i.e. scalping). Otherwise we have had two weeks of steady downtrend and major support was just broken – those are selling signals, not buying signals. I am currently looking for opportunities to sell on rallies.
November 3, 2009 at 14:44
Ok Thank you so much Mark!
So it only depends on your trading style?
On what level would you go for the sell again? 1.4700?
Sorry for all the questions!
But i am starting to enjoy this!
And your site is very helpful
Thanx Mark
November 3, 2009 at 14:56
yes it depends on your trading system/style. You could have a system that works off a 5 m chart when the 30m chart hits support/resistance. You could have a system that sells/buys false breakouts.
There are literally infinite # of trading systems/styles you can have. The question is whether they are profitable in the long-run. The PipHut style is to buy/sell near support/resistance in the direction of the trend.
Currently I would look to sell a candlestick in the 1.4725-1.4750 area.
November 3, 2009 at 15:57
Pulled another 20pips out of this. Obviously did not wait for the Doji to close though. Could have easily gone the other way. I will try to wait it out next time.
Thanks again Mark!!
November 3, 2009 at 14:55
Tell us the basis of your thinking cos the nearest I could get was 4611 on 21 Sept and that some time ago!
November 3, 2009 at 18:33
HI Mark I think the 4Hr chat depends on your brokens time, what do you think?
November 3, 2009 at 18:41
Depends on your charting package/broker. Most charting packages allow you to choose what time to use on your charts (e.g. local time, server time or UTC/GMT). If you’re not sure how to change the time on your charts contact your broker.
That being said I think most brokers still show the same candlsticks, it’s just the time label that displays differently. I could be wrong though.
November 3, 2009 at 14:51
Couple of questions:
1. Mark or anyone why is it that your times for your comments for today is showing November 3, 2009 late afternoon like 12:23 pm, 1:58 pm and 2:28 pm, when it is only 9:45 am in my city,state (on eastern time). Just want to clarify the time zone for the comments.
2. How do you know when looking back on the weeks and seeing support at the 1.4616 that this support is a good place to enter a trade. Do you wait for some type of candlestick confirmation? How do you know if its not going to drop down some more to the next support level?
3. Last question, how far do you let it drop down before you get out and realize it’s going against you or do you hold and wait till it turn around?
Help?Help?Help? Help the Newbie!!!!
November 3, 2009 at 14:59
1. Lisa all times are in GMT.
2. Nobody ever knows for sure but there are a few things that can make support/resistance more reliable. The more times the support/resistance was tested the more reliable it is. The higher the timeframe you are looking at, the better the signal (for example support on a daily chart is much, much better than support on the 30m chart).
3. I always trade with stop-losses and I recommend you do too. Always go into a trade knowing how much you are risking and how much you could earn. This is called the risk/reward ratio. I’ve written an article on this you should read under the “learn Forex” category on the left and top of this page.
November 3, 2009 at 14:55
Would anyone direct me to some help on learning about the FIB? I don’t know how you all are calculating these numbers or what the importance of these numbers. However, I see that are being discussed alot in the comments and it frustrates me that I can’t follow where the numbers came from.
Please help the newbie!
November 3, 2009 at 15:05
The long answer of what are fibonacci’s can be found at wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_number
To put it short though, fibbonaci numbers are retracement levels that traders expect to see support/resistance. Explanation here:
http://www.forexfibonacci.com/
November 3, 2009 at 15:13
Mark,
Thank you very much!
I guess trading with the stop losses will keep me from panicing once a trade starts going against me.
I am going to get better! I can do this!!!
November 3, 2009 at 15:17
Lisa, above all else I recommend trading with a demo account for at least a few months. You have to grow confident that you have a consistent, long-term profitable strategy.
Just because a trade was profitable does not mean it was a good one. And just because a trade lost does not mean it was a bad trade. It’s all about long-term profitability…
November 3, 2009 at 15:28
Mark,
Yes, I have been trading on a demo account for a while but I’m still trying to establish a profitable system. My biggest problem is that I’ll be doing pretty good then this 1 or 2 big losing trade will wipe the demo account out and I have to start over again. I think the problem is that I don’t set a stop loss to get out. I just hold and think its going to turn back around in my favor but it doesn’t and then my lose is very big. Then I think the other problem is when I have a winning trade with profit instead of taking the profit I’ll hold for more (greed) and then it goes against me and then I’m emotional hoping it goes back in my direction.
I will work on this by setting a profit target and stop loss.
Do you ever make a decision to change the profit target or stop loss you have set after you have gotten into a trade?
November 3, 2009 at 15:33
“Do you ever make a decision to change the profit target or stop loss you have set after you have gotten into a trade?”
Sometimes, yes. For example lets say on my imaginary pair I entered at 1.00. There is resistance at 1.10 and I’m targeting 1.20. If the trade goes in my favor but fails to break 1.10 I might move the stop up to BE (break even) or if it is a bearish enough signal at 1.10 I might cover the trade (take profit) completely and wait for another opportunity to enter long on a dip.
November 3, 2009 at 15:34
Also, some of the more “advanced” strategies I use for other pairs involve moving the stop-loss to break-even once the trade is in the profit equal to the amount of the initial risk.
November 3, 2009 at 15:54
nice layout
November 3, 2009 at 16:43
Mark,
Thanks for everything. I will stick with it and keep trying. I will definitely stick with Piphut.com!!!!
November 3, 2009 at 19:53
Thank you Mark! Your web page is quite educative,how I wish I know about it long time ago.
Most importantly, I’m grateful for helping us to become a profitable trader without paying you a dime.
I’m quite sure there is a reward for your generosity.The more you give,the more you have is a law that works all the time.
My question is this: Why do you concentrate only on EU.How many pairs do you think is advisable for a beginner to be tracking? Thank you!
November 3, 2009 at 20:01
Hi John, welcome to PipHut and glad to have you here.
I concentrate PipHut on EUR/USD because that is the most popular pair to trade with the lowest spreads and thus appeals to the largest audience. Personally I trade all pairs but due to time constraints only put up my analysis for EUR/USD.
I think a beginner should only focus on one pair to begin with, and that should be one of the majors. It takes a long time to know what you don’t know, if that makes sense, in the forex market. I’m sure there is a lot I still don’t know after years of trading. By focusing on one pair you will truly start to learn the ins and outs of what drives the currency pairs, and once you know the fundamentals you can better analyze other pairs as well.
November 3, 2009 at 20:27
Mark,
Do you calculate FIB using the high/low or the close of the high and low swing points and on which time chart do you use to get these points from and to calculate the FIB on?
Again, thank you so very much!!!!!!!
November 3, 2009 at 20:45
I always use top/bottom of the wicks (highs/lows). 60M or 4-hour. The best fibonacci points are the obvious high/lows. Fibonacci is a self-fulfilling trading “prophecy” so the more obvious the highs/lows the more likely it is to work. If you are scratching your head trying to figure out which highs/lows to connect odds are other traders are as well so you should just skip the fibonacci.
November 3, 2009 at 20:28
Mark, should we sell around 1.4720?
November 3, 2009 at 20:42
bearish shooting star last hour that pierced our resistance at 1.4725.
November 3, 2009 at 21:04
Mark,
Sorry to keep asking questions but I’m trying to get this.
Are you saying that you use the high and the low from the same candle stick on the 4-hr chart? For example if it’s 12:00 pm, do you use the high and the low on the 4-hr chart at 12:00 pm or do you use the high and the low from a combination of the different candlesticks on the 4-hr chart? For example, do you take the low from the candlestick at 8:00 am and the high from the the candlestick at 4:00 pm?
I hope this question is not confusing.
November 3, 2009 at 22:27
I just rolled out a new FAQ that should answer this question (and gives examples). Check out the Fibonacci question at:
http://piphut.com/about/faq-for-free-forex-signals/
and let me know if that answers your question.
quick side note: I don’t think I’ve ever done a fibonacci on one candlestick, always a combination
November 3, 2009 at 21:08
I apologize to take up too much time but my last question for today.
How did you get Resistance at 1.4725? Did you calculate this or did you just review the 4 hr chart and see that in previous times it showed as a strong resistance?
November 3, 2009 at 22:28
Hi Lisa, see if you support/resistance question is answered here:
http://piphut.com/about/faq-for-free-forex-signals/
or here
http://piphut.com/learn-forex/learn-forex-2-support-and-resistance/
November 3, 2009 at 23:21
4728 is the daily median pivot point
November 3, 2009 at 21:54
hi mark …i like know at what time i can receve a signal…and can you anseer in french…thanks
November 3, 2009 at 22:26
Hi Rachi,
Signals generally come out between 4-6a GMT. Sorry, only in English.
You can get a more detailed answer at the new FAQ:
http://piphut.com/about/faq-for-free-forex-signals/
November 3, 2009 at 22:48
Mark,
Thanks! Those links were exactly what I needed.
November 3, 2009 at 23:17
I am not sure i understand about the signals, when I get something from you email mark it says approaching resistance etc but never a real signal. Am I missing something? sorry for a dumb question…this is also the first time I have ever seen this
November 3, 2009 at 23:32
Tom, please read the two helpful guides on our signals below and see if that clears some of it up. Also, just a note, PipHut is about helping traders become better traders and building a community of traders – not trading for you.
How to use PipHut’s signals
http://piphut.com/about/read-me-how-to-use-piphuts-free-forex-signals/
FAQ on free forex signals
http://piphut.com/about/faq-for-free-forex-signals/
November 3, 2009 at 23:49
Tom,
You have to click on the message that’s highlighted in blue in the email and it will take you to further explaination of the signal.