11-12-09
6:26a GMT – No entry on yesterday’s signal around 1.4930 as the pair once again bounced off of 1.4955 support before rising for a quick 60 pips. The pair entered this 1.4950-1.5050 range on 11/9/09 and has not been able to break free yet as investors try to decipher some of the confusing fundamentals that are coming out of the market. Technically the pair has been in a strong uptrend few days and past couple months, and on the daily chart we still have what looks like a bullish flag consolidation pattern so the bias is up. Therefor I will continue to look for buying opportunities at the range bottom around 1.4950.
Trading Idea: Looking for buying opportunities around range support at 1.4950 with targets at 1.4985, 1.5015 and 1.5045.
(click to enlarge)
Click here to receive my free forex signals via email
Click here for more info on how to use my free forex signals
Click here to learn how much you can earn with our Forex Income Calculator
Discuss this signal with me and fellow traders at the new Forex Discussion Groups
November 12, 2009 at 07:45
55 pips yesterday just using piphut signal. Not much but at least the im on the right track. Today expecting 50-70 pips. Am I ok mark???
November 12, 2009 at 14:17
Positive pips are good pips :)
November 12, 2009 at 08:23
Mark could you say that a bearish flagpole has just formed?
November 12, 2009 at 09:40
It does not look like a perfect flagpole to me . It is allover the place
November 12, 2009 at 14:16
No.. flagpoles usually have at least 4-5 candles as the actually flag and in a very tight range.
November 12, 2009 at 09:29
Lots of news today……
EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
EUR Industrial Production m/m
USD Unemployment Claims
USD Crude Oil Inventories
USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
November 12, 2009 at 14:14
Thanks for posting this Ed :)
November 12, 2009 at 15:08
YW Mark. Thanks for Piphut!!!
November 12, 2009 at 09:32
Yesterday i have read the weak of $ need more a the reason for carry trader to get lower. So i’m still more for bearish time.
November 12, 2009 at 10:21
14950 just been hit. Going long. Good luck !!!
November 12, 2009 at 11:14
Hi mark, Thanks for the guide
November 12, 2009 at 12:35
anyone still bullish???
November 12, 2009 at 12:39
915 support was broken!
Next support I can see is 870…
Any suggestions?
November 12, 2009 at 13:54
Hi Zar…u make use of pivot points too?am working on PP in making desicions and seems to be going fine..how is goin with u?…am still a newbie tho
November 12, 2009 at 12:47
I had a look at daily chart, EURUSD and S&P500 looks like its downhill from here. Bearish for a few days maybe. (But im an amature at this so dont make a trade based on my word.) Im waiting for the “unemployment claims” to see what happens.
What do u guys think?
November 12, 2009 at 13:25
Hi Markus,
Can you tell me why you look at the S&P500 to determine what direction EURUSD is headed?
TIA
November 12, 2009 at 14:09
S&P futures reversed during the previous session, after a break of 1098 highs. The move down from 1098 to current levels could be a technical correction of an up-trend. On the one hour S&P futures chart below there is a support zone around the 1080-1083 level, from where the global market may bounce higher again.
The SP500 leads the market right now
November 12, 2009 at 14:10
cant post as chart
November 12, 2009 at 14:19
Tom, you can post charts in the forums (http://piphut.com/forex-discussion) and post a link to the forum here.
November 12, 2009 at 12:47
My SL’s got wiped out. But I think it was a good tech trade. What really irks me is that my first TP was just one pip away before the price pulled back. That would have put me at a no risk trade! :-(
November 12, 2009 at 13:09
Yes I saw the same thing on the daily chart!?!
But I am also still new to this!
So Mark i would like your input?
Do you see a hanging man on the daily graph?
November 12, 2009 at 14:21
There was definitely a bearish doji on the dailies yesterday. Didn’t see a hanging man.
November 12, 2009 at 13:49
ED
I couldnt figure out how to quote… Anyways. Im no profecional, but as i understand it, its like this… When stocks fail the USD goes up. (Wich seams really strange) S&P500 messures a bunch of stocks.
November 12, 2009 at 13:52
OK Markus. I understand now. Thanks!
November 12, 2009 at 13:54
The reason for that is risk apetite, some good economic news etc. increase risk apetite and big money goes into more riskier assets (ie stocks) which appreciates the stocks and depriciates the USD and vice-versa.
November 12, 2009 at 14:04
Markus, it sounds strange at first but its because of risk appetite. For example on some positive news for the US economy, big money shifts from USD to more riskier assets like stocks, which makes appreciate and in turn depreciates the USD, and vice-versa.
November 12, 2009 at 14:14
Im sorry for the double post, had some issues with the forum
November 12, 2009 at 14:29
Thanx for clearing up the relationship of that a bit.
Anyone have any idea why the USD “unemployment claims” report didnt seam have any effect at all? It showed a lower than expected result, so i was expecting the USD to strengthen a bit.
November 12, 2009 at 14:52
The “unemployment claims” of today DID have an effect: they were quite good news, so EURUSD went bullish for 30 pips right after release. But weekly unemployment claims are not so relevant anyway. What matters, is the monthly NFP report (first Friday of the month). This is by far a mightiest EURUSD mover, up to 200 pips sometimes.
November 12, 2009 at 16:44
A, ok. I must have missed that move.
I usually try to stay out of trading on that “NFP” release, i learned that the hard way, hehe.
November 12, 2009 at 15:07
There is a nice hammer on the 4hour chart that just closed at 15pm GMT. I’ll be conservative since theres some downward pressure today sofar
November 12, 2009 at 16:02
Nick. I don’t see a hammer on the 4hr.
November 12, 2009 at 16:07
11gmt open 15gmt close, it obviously didnt produce a good signal since the pair now broke 1.4900. I’ll wait for things to settle and see what happens tomorrow
November 12, 2009 at 15:25
I went short after resistance 1.4900 was breached. My first TP was bought now I can sit back and watch without any angst. :)
November 12, 2009 at 15:34
Ooops…i meant support @ 1.4900 ;-)
November 12, 2009 at 15:40
Wow!! made some loses today, bought EURUSD at 1.4900 and my SL was hit
November 12, 2009 at 16:40
-130 pips down today, so far. This one cant really move much further down in a day, can it? Should be safer to take a buy position now. Just a thought
November 12, 2009 at 16:43
there has been NO bullish indication all day so why try and counter trend trade it?
look at the last 2 daily charts and see what the candles were telling you…down down down
it my pause at 4840 area
November 12, 2009 at 17:12
Well bigger trend is still bullish (right?) since june or something like that (i might be wrong about the exact month)
a move too big should maybe be considered as overbought or oversold and would be expected to pull back a bit.
Just a thought, but it might be better suited for forum.
November 12, 2009 at 17:49
Ive put my money where my mouth is, and bought 1 lot EURUSD at 1.4865, SL at 1.4850, wish me luck.
November 12, 2009 at 17:01
Is that a header and shoulder reversal pattern on the 1hr chart (EURUSD)?
November 12, 2009 at 17:07
The left side has too many “shoulders”. Looks more like a simple false breakout and then failure of 1.5015 resistance.
November 12, 2009 at 17:35
So we will now look for failures under resistance 1.4910 and 1.4950 to go short?
November 12, 2009 at 17:26
Today is a down day, don’t fight.
November 12, 2009 at 17:29
GBPUSD is good sell at 1.6556 for me.
November 12, 2009 at 17:40
GBPUSD from my opinion is good to short at 1.6630 with confirmations, what do you guys think?
November 12, 2009 at 18:13
It is moving between 1.6560 and 1.6530 now. I’ll sale 1.6555 and buy 1.6530.
November 12, 2009 at 20:50
Looks like next support level is around 1.4813.
November 12, 2009 at 21:44
yes think so as well, i got myself a 3 lot position at 4820 now, just gonna keep moving up the stops, guess it will go down soon again.
Lost on the higher level before, but i got it back now, so i can sleep ok.
Anyone has an idea about tomorrow? More down?
November 12, 2009 at 22:04
No idea what’s gonna happen tomorrow. But EUR has a lot of news. Most important seems to be German Prelim GDP q/q. I am surprised the USD still doing well after the Federal Budget Balance showed -176.4B.
November 12, 2009 at 22:49
I looked at the daily chart of EURUSD at the dips first one 17 08 2009, 04 09 2009, 03 11 2009 These price dips make a trendline (not sure how valid it is)
Looks like the price could reach it tomorrow at about 1.4710. Theres lots of resistance though, as it looks to me.
RSI on the 1 hour chart looks oversold.
Im gonna try to get a small new buy position if it drop down a bit again.
November 13, 2009 at 00:04
I have fib drawn + some pivotal lines watching the retracement. Looking for a good tech reason to enter another short. :)
November 12, 2009 at 23:47
target is 145 area
November 13, 2009 at 00:14
Thanks Tom. Got my eye on it. ;0)
November 13, 2009 at 00:28
give it 10 days to 2 weeks to get there
November 13, 2009 at 15:07
11/13
Just locked profit on my firt lot. Letting the second ride down to 145. Of course, I will move down the SL accordingly. Thanks Tom!
November 13, 2009 at 15:09
it wont be a straight line remember, it will be better to play the ups and downs and maximize the pips from fib and pivot points
November 13, 2009 at 15:41
OK. I may let this lot sit since its already locked into profit. Will do the next tech entrys as the market dictates. Thanks Tom!
November 13, 2009 at 06:32
I have been having problem opening this site and i thought i was my connectivity.I must salute combined efforts of professional traders. i recommend this site to my fellow traders as found comprehensive and dynamic