11-12-09
6:26a GMT – No entry on yesterday’s signal around 1.4930 as the pair once again bounced off of 1.4955 support before rising for a quick 60 pips. The pair entered this 1.4950-1.5050 range on 11/9/09 and has not been able to break free yet as investors try to decipher some of the confusing fundamentals that are coming out of the market. Technically the pair has been in a strong uptrend few days and past couple months, and on the daily chart we still have what looks like a bullish flag consolidation pattern so the bias is up. Therefor I will continue to look for buying opportunities at the range bottom around 1.4950.
Trading Idea: Looking for buying opportunities around range support at 1.4950 with targets at 1.4985, 1.5015 and 1.5045.
(click to enlarge)
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55 pips yesterday just using piphut signal. Not much but at least the im on the right track. Today expecting 50-70 pips. Am I ok mark???
Positive pips are good pips :)
Mark could you say that a bearish flagpole has just formed?
It does not look like a perfect flagpole to me . It is allover the place
No.. flagpoles usually have at least 4-5 candles as the actually flag and in a very tight range.
Lots of news today……
EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
EUR Industrial Production m/m
USD Unemployment Claims
USD Crude Oil Inventories
USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
Thanks for posting this Ed :)
YW Mark. Thanks for Piphut!!!
Yesterday i have read the weak of $ need more a the reason for carry trader to get lower. So i’m still more for bearish time.
14950 just been hit. Going long. Good luck !!!
Hi mark, Thanks for the guide
anyone still bullish???
915 support was broken!
Next support I can see is 870…
Any suggestions?
Hi Zar…u make use of pivot points too?am working on PP in making desicions and seems to be going fine..how is goin with u?…am still a newbie tho
I had a look at daily chart, EURUSD and S&P500 looks like its downhill from here. Bearish for a few days maybe. (But im an amature at this so dont make a trade based on my word.) Im waiting for the “unemployment claims” to see what happens.
What do u guys think?
Hi Markus,
Can you tell me why you look at the S&P500 to determine what direction EURUSD is headed?
TIA
S&P futures reversed during the previous session, after a break of 1098 highs. The move down from 1098 to current levels could be a technical correction of an up-trend. On the one hour S&P futures chart below there is a support zone around the 1080-1083 level, from where the global market may bounce higher again.
The SP500 leads the market right now
cant post as chart
Tom, you can post charts in the forums (http://piphut.com/forex-discussion) and post a link to the forum here.
My SL’s got wiped out. But I think it was a good tech trade. What really irks me is that my first TP was just one pip away before the price pulled back. That would have put me at a no risk trade! :-(
Yes I saw the same thing on the daily chart!?!
But I am also still new to this!
So Mark i would like your input?
Do you see a hanging man on the daily graph?
There was definitely a bearish doji on the dailies yesterday. Didn’t see a hanging man.
ED
I couldnt figure out how to quote… Anyways. Im no profecional, but as i understand it, its like this… When stocks fail the USD goes up. (Wich seams really strange) S&P500 messures a bunch of stocks.
OK Markus. I understand now. Thanks!
The reason for that is risk apetite, some good economic news etc. increase risk apetite and big money goes into more riskier assets (ie stocks) which appreciates the stocks and depriciates the USD and vice-versa.
Markus, it sounds strange at first but its because of risk appetite. For example on some positive news for the US economy, big money shifts from USD to more riskier assets like stocks, which makes appreciate and in turn depreciates the USD, and vice-versa.
Im sorry for the double post, had some issues with the forum
Thanx for clearing up the relationship of that a bit.
Anyone have any idea why the USD “unemployment claims” report didnt seam have any effect at all? It showed a lower than expected result, so i was expecting the USD to strengthen a bit.
The “unemployment claims” of today DID have an effect: they were quite good news, so EURUSD went bullish for 30 pips right after release. But weekly unemployment claims are not so relevant anyway. What matters, is the monthly NFP report (first Friday of the month). This is by far a mightiest EURUSD mover, up to 200 pips sometimes.
A, ok. I must have missed that move.
I usually try to stay out of trading on that “NFP” release, i learned that the hard way, hehe.
There is a nice hammer on the 4hour chart that just closed at 15pm GMT. I’ll be conservative since theres some downward pressure today sofar
Nick. I don’t see a hammer on the 4hr.
11gmt open 15gmt close, it obviously didnt produce a good signal since the pair now broke 1.4900. I’ll wait for things to settle and see what happens tomorrow
I went short after resistance 1.4900 was breached. My first TP was bought now I can sit back and watch without any angst. :)
Ooops…i meant support @ 1.4900 ;-)
Wow!! made some loses today, bought EURUSD at 1.4900 and my SL was hit
-130 pips down today, so far. This one cant really move much further down in a day, can it? Should be safer to take a buy position now. Just a thought
there has been NO bullish indication all day so why try and counter trend trade it?
look at the last 2 daily charts and see what the candles were telling you…down down down
it my pause at 4840 area
Well bigger trend is still bullish (right?) since june or something like that (i might be wrong about the exact month)
a move too big should maybe be considered as overbought or oversold and would be expected to pull back a bit.
Just a thought, but it might be better suited for forum.
Ive put my money where my mouth is, and bought 1 lot EURUSD at 1.4865, SL at 1.4850, wish me luck.
Is that a header and shoulder reversal pattern on the 1hr chart (EURUSD)?
The left side has too many “shoulders”. Looks more like a simple false breakout and then failure of 1.5015 resistance.
So we will now look for failures under resistance 1.4910 and 1.4950 to go short?
Today is a down day, don’t fight.
GBPUSD is good sell at 1.6556 for me.
GBPUSD from my opinion is good to short at 1.6630 with confirmations, what do you guys think?
It is moving between 1.6560 and 1.6530 now. I’ll sale 1.6555 and buy 1.6530.
Looks like next support level is around 1.4813.
yes think so as well, i got myself a 3 lot position at 4820 now, just gonna keep moving up the stops, guess it will go down soon again.
Lost on the higher level before, but i got it back now, so i can sleep ok.
Anyone has an idea about tomorrow? More down?
No idea what’s gonna happen tomorrow. But EUR has a lot of news. Most important seems to be German Prelim GDP q/q. I am surprised the USD still doing well after the Federal Budget Balance showed -176.4B.
I looked at the daily chart of EURUSD at the dips first one 17 08 2009, 04 09 2009, 03 11 2009 These price dips make a trendline (not sure how valid it is)
Looks like the price could reach it tomorrow at about 1.4710. Theres lots of resistance though, as it looks to me.
RSI on the 1 hour chart looks oversold.
Im gonna try to get a small new buy position if it drop down a bit again.
I have fib drawn + some pivotal lines watching the retracement. Looking for a good tech reason to enter another short. :)
target is 145 area
Thanks Tom. Got my eye on it. ;0)
give it 10 days to 2 weeks to get there
11/13
Just locked profit on my firt lot. Letting the second ride down to 145. Of course, I will move down the SL accordingly. Thanks Tom!
it wont be a straight line remember, it will be better to play the ups and downs and maximize the pips from fib and pivot points
OK. I may let this lot sit since its already locked into profit. Will do the next tech entrys as the market dictates. Thanks Tom!
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