11-18-09
5:25a GMT – Signal is short and sweet today! By the way, I loved the discussion yesterday. Everyone was participating, sharing their trades/ideas, etc. That is what PipHut is all about – you guys! The pair did dive for over 150 pips after yesterday’s short signal – unfortunately it never turned up enough to even threaten our entry below 1.5050 so the trade went untriggered.
Daily Outlook: Today we do have CPI news coming out for the USD – which offers us a glimpse into the inflationary pressures in the US. Too much inflation and Fed would be pressured to raise interest rates. Higher interest rates means a stronger USD. So, indirectly, lots of inflation can signal future USD gains (though in the short-term it often means the opposite). That comes out at 8:30a GMT.
Trading Idea: Below 1.5050 I remain short-term bearish as the pair remains in a bearish channel with its longer-term uptrend. I will look for shorting opportunities in the 1.4950 resistance area with targets at 1.4910, 1.4880, 1.4850 and 1.4820. Caution is definitely advised on this trade, however, as signals are mixed at best. Recommend waiting for candlestick confirmation.
(click to enlarge)
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November 18, 2009 at 06:46
a good recommendation, but i think that probably 1.4920-30 could act as a resistance, i will also look for a reversal from that point
November 18, 2009 at 07:14
thats true the price will touch 1.4949 and then turnnig back go to 1.4796? sorry i`m newbie
November 18, 2009 at 07:22
That comes out at 8:30a GMT
____________________________________________________________________________
Good morning Mark
I think it should read ET and not GMT
November 18, 2009 at 07:39
Hi Mark,
do you mind to continue to put the Fib lines on your charts? It was a good piece of a lesson for me through the months I’ve been learning with your site so far. Now, you stopped publishing these lines. Why?
Great site, I am a big fan of it, too.
November 18, 2009 at 17:40
Wito, I don’t always use Fibonacci – only when I think it applies. If there is other support/resistance I think is better I use that instead.
November 18, 2009 at 08:30
mark plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz plz start giving signals of GBPUSD as well
November 18, 2009 at 09:02
I’ve stopped trading for a year because I ran out of money and, well, that stung. My ego-bruises have healed and now, now I’m back and I even decided to comment on this resource I’ve been with you atleast 14 months, if not longer! Wow has the site changed! (been over 8 months since I’ve last been here… )
And here I go….
I consider anything thats fairly close to be a good line, and as such the 1.505 area has my intrest on my 3H chart it sorta looks like a double top between late Oct, and near the start of Nov. This definatly has my intrest
My other point is on the daily we have a fairly strong uptrend, and with the exception of that double top I mentioned all seems to point to going up…. so far atleast
I personaly noticed a support near 1.481 and got in at 1.485 (about an hour after the bounce)
I should have setup a limit-long order, however I didn’t notice the trend line. Looks like some ego-bruises are started to reappear.
Any time I see a chart with a long term overview I make sure to read it, maybe this can be a monthly event? or even more often. Unfortunately I’ve narrowed down who I read based on trading styles, and accuracy, so now, you sit alone in the ‘trusted’ chair.
I think I’m just really tired and rambling so I’m going to shutup now but I may follow up tomorrow.:)
-Simy
November 18, 2009 at 10:19
wonderful! I made 105pips over night:D
November 18, 2009 at 10:34
i just went short 14945.. since it hit resistance and started decline.
is that correct practice?
please advice
November 18, 2009 at 10:50
Markus,
followed your lead yesterday, thanks got out early with 50pips so thanks again. Mark excellent site.
November 18, 2009 at 11:36
Has the game plan changed? who has gone short?
November 18, 2009 at 11:40
Nnagozie,
the “plan” is still valid, has for now there was no clear signal to enter short. We are all waiting for a shooting star to follow. For now keep aside, as it appears that this up movent is with some strength.
November 18, 2009 at 12:24
How do you gauge the strength of the up movement? and what timeframe will you watch out for shooting H1 or H4?
November 18, 2009 at 15:15
I look for candles in H1 mainly, of course I also chech H4, and if both coincide I double the trade. The reason I said that it was a movement with strength is that it made full candles H1 without pullbacks from around 1.489 to almost 1.497. Did not loose strength during those 2 hours of the morning.
November 18, 2009 at 11:37
It’s seems that EU has reached 4970 today,and I just open SHORT at 4950.Now,where am I suppose to StopLoss?
November 18, 2009 at 11:44
Yoshi, me too … i went short 14945….but i see resistance @ 14970 area… am not sure though, am new, i can see it on the 15m, 60m chart ..
Even on Marks chart he mentioned that he will look for shorts on 145 but if u take a close look at the trend line it can reach 14980, anyways i would like someone to correct me
November 18, 2009 at 11:44
Yoshi,
the SL is always your call, in fact is how much you are willing to loose in one trade. My way is to define one of the support/resitance levels as the SL, fo example today, and looking at Mark’s chart I would put my SL some pips (10) above the resitance line of 1.5014. I would be risking about 74 pips.
November 18, 2009 at 12:43
Yes,you’re right.Anyway I’m very certain that the market is going down around 4895/85 after “Building Permits” & “Core CPI m/m” news release.
Btw,do you have any idea which broker that reliable to trade Crude-Oil?I’d prefer the one with no commission and low spreads(max 5 pips).
November 18, 2009 at 13:11
Avafx has 4pips i think. But im not sure if they are regulated.
November 18, 2009 at 15:00
I think Avafx is not regulated, but I trade with Ava for 1.5 years without any problems. Done several withdraws and worked fine. Later I opened another account with Igmarkets because they have a lot of CFD’s over securities, that Ava does not have.
November 18, 2009 at 17:32
Hi yoshi, one thing with forex is that no one is certain of any trade he takes. If Mark for instance is certain of any trade he takes, then, he should be one of the richest in the world. The same thing applies to all of us, that is why Marks always emphasis on good money management.
November 18, 2009 at 11:51
Just wiped out this mornings 35pip profit for not waiting to short on the confirmation candle. Just had to did!!:-(
November 18, 2009 at 12:01
Yoshi.. hang in there, it seems what i said is true. ED or Mark or someone please comfirm it…
November 18, 2009 at 12:37
anyone going short?
Or still waiting for confirmation??
November 18, 2009 at 12:45
I went short on that shooting star but since its not an ideal shooting star for me (the real body is abit too big)i am extremely conservative on the position size and have tight stop
November 18, 2009 at 12:48
Nick which chart did u see that shooting star?
November 18, 2009 at 15:01
12gmt 1hour chart, got out with +40 cause the markets are too choppy and im getting nervous
November 18, 2009 at 12:46
just hang on till US market open DJ/SP will tell where to go
November 18, 2009 at 13:08
what time does us open?? GMT time?
November 18, 2009 at 13:21
I think that is 1430 GMT
November 18, 2009 at 15:17
I think that US electronic market for FX opens at 13h00 GMT. At 14h30 is the NYSE.
November 18, 2009 at 15:53
Nuno,
I wasn’t aware that it was a different time for FX and the NYSE.
Thanks
November 18, 2009 at 13:19
market stall awaiting 1330 US CPI news then NY market open 1430..and we’ll price action
November 18, 2009 at 13:44
ok .. we are back to where we started, i closed the trace with zero loses.
can anyone tell me what i did wrong when i entered the short after it hit 14950 and went down to 14945 (were i went short) i thought this is confirmation.. i need to learn more
November 18, 2009 at 14:47
Is the doji in the 1 hr chart significant? Also what kind of confirmation are we waiting for? Thanks
November 18, 2009 at 14:49
Hi Mark,
Re: todays trade. Does your single to short require a bearish 4hr, 1hr and 30min?
TIA
November 18, 2009 at 14:52
All of em closed of course. :)
November 18, 2009 at 14:54
Thanks
November 18, 2009 at 15:26
mark has a link to economic cldr..give attention to high impact news during this time false signals happen..mark says “stop hunting”..
November 18, 2009 at 15:59
Thanks ct2
Real tempting to get in around the 1.4950. Especially with the S&P and Dow pointing down. But I have been burned once today already. Gonna wait for a solid confirm this time before I make my entry.
November 18, 2009 at 16:05
Ed: I hope you did wait! :) Just skyrocketed.
November 18, 2009 at 16:19
Hi Nuno,
I was long this morning and made 35pips. Then jumped in for a short as soon as it went bearish at the 1.4950. My SL’s were wiped. Lost the 35pips and some change. Serves me right for not waiting for a solid confirmation. Now waiting to get back in ( or not )……
November 18, 2009 at 16:14
Isnt today rollover day? when lots of traders buy EURUSD and wait for payout around midnight and then close there positions? Atleast i think its wednesday at midnight. Anyone know what im talking about? (If so maybe could explain it a bit better as well)
If it is so, maybe we can expect it to go down after midnight… Just a thinking. Maybe im completely wrong, hehe
November 18, 2009 at 17:43
Depends on how your broker handles rollover but for most every day is a rollover day. Most do it at the close of the day but some even do it constantly throughout the day.
November 18, 2009 at 16:43
Wow… it doesn’t show bearish… though I predicted bearish like Mark did, I open short with limit at 1.4946 with SL at 1.4981 and target to 1.4911… since the signals still shows bearish, but no bearish trend didn’t show up for quite a time, i changed my target to 1.4930… which makes me close profit 16 pips at 13:45 GMT before it reach 1.4987 at 16:00 GMT… at least I’m saved today…
November 18, 2009 at 17:44
Approaching the top of trend line resistance at 1.5000. I’m looking for a shorting opp here.
November 18, 2009 at 18:13
So mark, are you in the trade?
Going short??
Is that a hanging man on the 4 hour chart??
Or is it only me who wants to see a hanging man??
November 18, 2009 at 18:21
Zar,
That looks like a hangman to me too on the 4 H chart.
November 18, 2009 at 18:24
Thanx Lisa!
Always nice if someone else is confirming it…
So did you go short?
I am in the short trade
November 18, 2009 at 18:27
Yes, I am in a short trade. Considering the confirmation, Mark’s comments and signal.
November 18, 2009 at 18:40
Hangman? On the 4h EURUSD chart? dont see it. At what time?
I do see a bearish engulfing pattern (i think its called) But it wont close 2100(GMT) and anything can still happen to it.
November 18, 2009 at 19:43
I was talking about a hangman at 12:00 GMT but now that I looked back at it I think the open on this candlestick has to be lower than the close on the previous candlestick. Someone please correct me if this is not correct.
November 18, 2009 at 19:50
hanging man should have little to no upper wick, small body (doesn’t matter what color the body is). Open does not have to be lower than the previous close.
November 18, 2009 at 20:04
This worries me, am i the only one who dont see it?
November 18, 2009 at 18:31
Im still not convinced this is it, dont look right. Im waiting, rather miss it than buy as it is now. (But thats just me, hehe)
November 18, 2009 at 18:24
Mark,
Are you talking about the blue lines drawn on your chart above? If so, how do you know where to draw these lines?
November 18, 2009 at 19:52
Same concept as regular support/resistance just applied to trend lines (not horizontal) – connecting tops and bottoms. Top and bottom of trend channel should be parallel. This particular channel is actually easiest to see on daily chart, or if you zoom way out on the 4-hour chart.
November 18, 2009 at 17:48
Is it possible for the people to publish an image of their positions closed by the advise of the thread?.
An useful tool that I just realized on MT4 is that you can check the History of your trades. How? It is easy. Just drag and drop the close trade to your chart from the tab “Account History”(terminal window). In order to drag all the positions closed, just do the same but holding Shift key.
November 19, 2009 at 03:39
Now i know!! Thks
November 18, 2009 at 20:33
Hi mark,can i set a pending order after your daily signal point and analysis ?set stop loss and go on to resune for my daily work.Do you recommend Buy stop and sell stop for a day trader?Please advise.
November 18, 2009 at 20:36
Hakeem, you’d have to work that system out for yourself, unfortunately. Many of my free signals require you to wait for candlestick confirmation, or a failure, or even place an entry after a breakout has occurred to catch the price moving in the right direction. Placing an entry might work for some signals but not all. My advice on placing entries is this: place them higher or lower than what you expect will be necessary. You will miss out on more trades but you will also win a higher percentage in my experience.
November 18, 2009 at 20:42
Mark,
So are you saying that there is a hangman at 12:00 GMT?
November 18, 2009 at 20:43
Mark,
Sorry that’s on the 4-hr chart.
November 18, 2009 at 20:58
Now i know whats wrong, my days dont start at 00:00 they start at 01:00. So i only have odd hours on my charts and then i cant see a candle starting at 12:00 on the 4h chart.
Same for anyone else? Im gonna give support a call
November 19, 2009 at 13:06
Markus,
On the 4 hr chart, my day start at 0300 hr candlestick. I am not sure if this is because I am eastern time and I am not sure how it relates to the GMT time.
If anyone that can explain, let me know.
November 18, 2009 at 21:16
“So are you saying that there is a hangman at 12:00 GMT?” No, in fact I don’t see anything close to a hangman :/. Maybe post a pic in the forums and I can take a look at it? I see two dojis.
November 18, 2009 at 21:50
thats funny, thats what i see. your 4h chart candles also start at 1am?
November 18, 2009 at 21:59
GMT+1, yes. 1h are obviously unaffected. But just because it is on GMT+1 or GMT doesn’t make the signal any less valid. This is part of the article I’m writing but you can combine candlesticks – because candlesticks are supposed to tell you about the underlying mood of the market – not a self-fulfilling prophecy like Fibonacci. So for example a bearish engulfing on the 60m could be a shooting star on the 2h or 4h. The fact that it is a doji on GMT+1 and a hanging man on GMT is a good sign as well.
November 18, 2009 at 22:29
So i learn something new today again, thanx Mark.
When will this article be available?
November 18, 2009 at 22:33
I keep saying “soon” and then I keep pushing it back because I’m trying to do something special with it. I would say by Sunday at the latest, hopefully I’m not making a promise I can’t keep :)
November 18, 2009 at 22:38
Alright looking forward to it (I assume u will have it pubished here) Take ur time. And thanx for all this. very cool.
November 19, 2009 at 12:53
Hello Mark,
I need to clear this up so I will know in the future.
On my chart it is at 7:00 am eastern time on the 4-hr chart. So I may have given you the wrong time in GMT; normally, the GMT time has been 5 hours ahead of what I had listed on my chart and that’s why I gave you 12:00 GMT. But I thought this was a hangman here. Please confirm.
Thanks
November 19, 2009 at 12:59
How do you post a picture to the forum? How do I get it from my computer, first?
November 18, 2009 at 20:50
Great mark,but how can you rate yourself and your signals in the forex world based on your experience and
November 18, 2009 at 21:13
and…?
November 18, 2009 at 23:36
I missed this one today…
James Bullard, that is President of Federal Reserve Bank in St. Louis. Apearantly he made a bearish statement about the USD.
Did anyone happen to catch what he said? And what significance will it have u think?
Im bearish on the EURUSD now anyways. Looks ok on 8h chart, Aiming for 1.4860 area
November 19, 2009 at 00:31
Looks like we have a head and shoulders.
November 19, 2009 at 00:54
in which chart like 1 hour or 4 hours you can see head and shoulders?
November 19, 2009 at 00:59
Hi Musa,
On the 1hr and 30min.
November 19, 2009 at 05:04
thanks ED but i have only 1h 2h 4h and 8hr. but i saw 2 dojis in 2 hour chart and hanging man…. i dont know it was rigth or now because im still learning. and mark web site and comment shelp alot…
November 19, 2009 at 07:46
Mark, when will the signal be out today???
:)
November 19, 2009 at 07:55
maybe mark have new girlfriend and he sleep so much last 3-4 days ;) ;)