11-17-09
5:14a GMT – For those of you (myself included) who had sell entries yesterday at 1.5015 we just barely missed that level (or at least my broker did) by a razor-thin 0.5 pip. That was followed by an almost immediate 60 pip drop. This was of course after Bernanke’s speech, as many of you commented on yesterday, sent the EUR/USD into a frenzy. For those of you that are curious the comments that supposedly triggered this panic were fairly mundane:
“Today, financial conditions are considerably better than they were then, but significant economic challenges remain. The flow of credit remains constrained, economic activity weak, and unemployment much too high. Future setbacks are possible.”
He is not really telling us anything we didn’t already know – the only surprise here is how the market reacted. Which makes me think this could just be a stop-squeeze in illiquid markets during news.
Daily Outlook: Nothing in the technical picture actually changed since yesterday, as you can see in the graph below so it is business as usual. Because price action did advance quite a bit I am moving up my entry a little (closer to the 1.5050 resistance) to get a better risk/reward ratio.
Trading Idea: Still looking to short above the 1.5015-1.5050 resistance area, though now I will look for an entry higher up, closer to 1.5050 to get a good risk/reward ratio. Targets from 1.5050 are 1.5015, 1.4980, 1.4950 and 1.4915.
(click to enlarge)
Quick Links:
Sign up for free forex signals via email here
FAQ on these signals
How to use these forex signals
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Forums
November 17, 2009 at 6:39 am
i dont think it will go there, i think for today also the good point to take a trade is 5015
November 17, 2009 at 7:03 am
Mark, I know you only give eur signals.
I want to know something on the gbp/usd?
On the hourly graph, there is a shooting star?!!
Does that confirm a good short??
On what level would you short gbp/usd??
1.6836??
Thank you very much
November 17, 2009 at 8:20 am
on 1h chart i see an eavening star and hanging man but on 4h chart its allmost perfect shooting star .
It does look like a good short trade to me to :D
i enter short last night after the hangning man on 1h chart .
the main trend is still up tough :/
November 17, 2009 at 8:24 am
thank you!
I just needed someone to confirm it :)
At what level will you take profit?
1.6700? 1.6650?
:)
November 17, 2009 at 8:36 am
38% fib – 1.6740 if it goes down :/
and not eat my stop before …i put a tight stop just on top of that shadow of that shooting star .
November 17, 2009 at 8:45 am
Thanks Jevgenij
I think we got in a great trade
:)
November 17, 2009 at 7:16 am
There is is good hammer on 1hr chart on EURUSD @6:00GMT what do you guys think?
November 17, 2009 at 1:03 pm
hammer require confirmation and are not real good indicators of anything without it
November 17, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Tom, what other confirmation do you nef when you see a hammer? I dont use any indicator because they lag a lot. So what indicator do you use for confirmation?
November 17, 2009 at 7:17 am
Just finished with 30pips profit from yesterday. Took 12hrs!! I played it a bit agressively. Like you, I had my Sell order around 1.5015 ( just bellow it and missed an entry by one pip!!!). So I placed another Sell order bellow 1.4980 thinking if the price goes bellow this support level it should drop even further. Well it did, but took for ever.
Thanks for the pips Mark!!!
November 17, 2009 at 8:43 am
Hello Mr . Mark
Trend analysis which chart time to usage is better . H4 or Hourly chart . send your reply me
Thanks
Vijay
November 17, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Daily or higer…
November 17, 2009 at 1:01 pm
look for the overall trend on the daily, entries on lower TF’s
November 17, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Tom,
What’s TF’s?
November 17, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Tom,
Never mind I think you mean timeframes.
November 17, 2009 at 2:28 pm
yes ma’am
November 17, 2009 at 2:34 pm
when computers were first used to trade to the stock market they were as big as houses and required punch cards for information input and one of the easiest to input were moving averages. It was soon discovered that a 90 sma on a daily chart would give a nice look at the prevailing trend, this is still used today by many professional and institutional traders. throw on your fibs and a 20 and a 50ma and boom, you have a whole new way of looking at the market as you move down in timeframes. This keeps it simple
November 17, 2009 at 9:30 am
That was a blatant stop hunt on the the eur/usd if I ever saw one. Somebody is also trying very hard to get the unsuspecting traders in on the wrong side of the market and take their money.
I like to use the 4hr and 1hr charts together for entries once a setup is forming. This helps me to find the key turning points in the market and from over trading.
I think the gbp/usd has a good sell setup forming. Pay close attention how price reacts around the 1.6850-1.69 area or better. If I get a good close there, I would look to get short. On pullbacks I would look to add to the longer term longs.
November 17, 2009 at 12:58 pm
more like EU corrected after failing to break 1.5 all the global drivers were oversold and needed a correction if and when they are to head higher. SP500 russell Dax gold $index were all badly in need of a correction from the 4 hr charts. We have now gotten that, now we watch the dow at oen for signs whether this will still fall today or wait for another day. I am bearish to 1.45 and will short rallies down to there still
November 17, 2009 at 2:57 pm
Jared,
Which hour of candlestick and which timeframe were you using to determine this stop hunt? You stated that they were trying to get unsuspecting traders on the wrong side of the market and take their money, clarify which directions you were talking about.
November 18, 2009 at 7:16 am
Lisa, have a look at the chart at the top of this page. It shows the euro spiked down and closed near the open leaving a big wick. It did the same thing as it probed above 1.5 briefly. They are catching people on both sides of the market. Notice how the euro came right back into the Friday lows this morning around 1.48 and has since rallied to 1.49. If it returns to this area and drops a lower, I’d look for another place to get long. I can set up a chatroom so you can see the charts and talk about some setups etc if you like. Happy trading!
November 18, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Jared,
That would be great; just let me know what I need to do in order to get in the chatroom you setup.
November 17, 2009 at 9:58 am
eu gu au all look short forming
November 17, 2009 at 10:24 am
Too many hammers on EURUSD, is it a good time to buy?
November 17, 2009 at 10:39 am
on which H chart are u looking?
November 17, 2009 at 11:15 am
I am not sure Nnagozie
The price is beneath the shadow of each hammer!
(1 hour graph)
And I see no confirmation after that hammer.
But I am still learning!
Will be nice te hear from a experienced trader???
:)
November 17, 2009 at 11:19 am
Zar… am in the same positon as u… hehe so dont experience trader meeee coz i am not one :)
November 17, 2009 at 11:47 am
This reminds me of 12th december. So im gonna wait and Watch.
…There might be a turn signal shaping on the 1h chart now, lets see.
November 17, 2009 at 11:56 am
Markus, so you think it is going up again?
What happened 12th december?
November 17, 2009 at 12:08 pm
Look on your 4h chart. Down down down.
So to be safe im gonna wait and watch, until something give me a sign that it will go up. Then ill buy. If im right i might buy as low as 1.4840 – 1.4820 area.
But anything can happen i guess, hehe
November 17, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Yip I am still bearish!!
I think eur can easily fall back to 1.4825…
Let me know if you see any bullish signs
:)
November 17, 2009 at 1:07 pm
lots of long upper wicks there telling everyone what was about to happen, nice read
November 17, 2009 at 1:02 pm
That’s the time we made money!!!!!!
November 17, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Tom,
At what hours were these long upper wicks and what TF chart used?
November 17, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Just going back and looking at the 1 hr chart; I don’t really see all these hammers. Would you tell me the times of the candlestick so that I may review to try to understand what you were seeing?
November 17, 2009 at 5:14 pm
lisa the wicks i spoke of were on the 4 hr chart. You must also look at the global drivers of the market, gold oil Dax $index SP500 ALL were massively oversold and very stretched on the 4hr charts and in dire need of pullback if they were to go higher. The recent moves were also made on low volume. I hope this helps some
November 17, 2009 at 8:39 pm
Tom,
I was looking at the 4 hr chart but it just didn’t seem like there were a lot of upper long wicks or may be I just don’t know what I am looking at.
Where do you get the charts/quotes for the oil/gold, etc?
thanks
November 17, 2009 at 11:22 pm
fxpro has them and dja
November 17, 2009 at 11:30 pm
Lisa, an easy/free one (plus no signup) is at:
Go to that site and click on the “charts” tab. It will load a chart in your browser (java required). From there if you click on “instruments” you can view charts for any currency pair or commodity, as well as overlay various charts to view correlations.
November 17, 2009 at 12:12 pm
anyone went short?
November 17, 2009 at 12:53 pm
is it time to go long?
November 17, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Equity Futures: Dow -11.00. S&P -1.50. NASDAQ -1.00. Japanese Nikkei -11.00. German Dax -3.00. European Trade: After a very strong start on Monday, the major European indexes opened below the break-even line as investors used the current equity valuations as a reason to book profits. Earlier in the day, most Asian shares closed the cash session in negative territory, despite a positive start
November 17, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Hi Tom so what is your conclusion re forex?
November 17, 2009 at 1:15 pm
right now after this fall last night its best to wait for the dow to open and see where it leads us, if you look at my previous post all the future index’s are down, if they stay down at open we may see more $ strength today but right now its a wait and see…patience right now is the trade of the day
November 17, 2009 at 1:16 pm
the dollar index started slowly to add points during the Asian session and continued doing so throughout the first part of the European session. Right now, every major currency is trading below Tuesday’s opening price against the dollar, even thought the U.K. sterling and Japanese yen currencies showed some resilience. The dollar’s uptrend seen overnight reflects the selling from the equity markets
November 17, 2009 at 1:24 pm
1259 GMT [Dow Jones] The dollar is broadly higher in morning trading as equities wobble and optimism about the global economy wanes, and the market digests remarks from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet welcoming Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s support of a strong dollar on Mon.
November 17, 2009 at 1:05 pm
i would not long this market right now but wait for the Dow to open and see where it heads. There are over a trillion pips a day to be had, you will never miss a trade, patience grasshopper :)
November 17, 2009 at 5:07 pm
Dow opened and dow dropped, this is why you wait. all shorts closed will wait for daily close and tomorrow now
November 17, 2009 at 1:43 pm
USD/CAD 1H shooting star & confirmation candle for a short
November 17, 2009 at 2:37 pm
look at those wicks and you see much indecision right now, market will soon tell what it will do today, dont chase it let it tell you first
November 17, 2009 at 5:15 pm
4 hr charts you will see the upper wicks
November 17, 2009 at 2:39 pm
Hendrik,
USD/CAD: was that the GMT 12:00 and 1:00 candlestick on the 1hr chart? Why is the 1:00 GMT the confirmation for the shooting star?
November 17, 2009 at 2:46 pm
Lisa at the time of the post everthing pointed to a nice short. However after the posting it changed in 17 minutes. Lesson: wait for the closing of the candle period!!!
November 17, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Hendrik,
That clears things up.
Thanks!
November 17, 2009 at 2:44 pm
USDCAD: i think the shooting star is false. it has to open higher. but lets see.
November 17, 2009 at 2:51 pm
Everything is going nowhere slowly
November 17, 2009 at 3:45 pm
ok, im in at 1.4935, lets see if it goes well.
November 17, 2009 at 3:46 pm
i mean long at 1.4835 …silly me.
November 17, 2009 at 3:47 pm
Anyone here still short? If so you must very happy!! :)
November 17, 2009 at 4:00 pm
You bottom picking Markus? What’s your stop and target?
November 17, 2009 at 4:09 pm
SL 1.48 TP 1.494
November 17, 2009 at 4:09 pm
I have a fib from 11/03 04:00 to 11/11 04:00 EST on a 4hr chart showing resistance at the .50
November 17, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Drilled right thru it! Never mind….
November 17, 2009 at 4:17 pm
good luck. this feels like an ugly day.
November 17, 2009 at 5:04 pm
Hi all,
just bare in mind one thing, one of the things we all should learn while trading is in fact: know when not to trade. In this case I think I’m not very far from the true if I say that we trust and follow Mark’s advices, the thing is when the entry price for Mark is not reached we are not able to sit quiet and enjoy the day… And in days like today we entered against the trend, expecting that Mark’s entry would be reached, sooner or later, and we would win on the way up, when in fact the trend is down. I was one of those who got burned also, and every time this happens I say to myself to “SIT QUIET!”. Maybe tomorow… :)
November 17, 2009 at 5:55 pm
@mark,
Your method of trade is go with the trend. On a larger time frame trend is up and the sinals posted here seem to be a trade against the trend. ie 15050 top.
Any reasons for it? and how do you guage the trend. I look for 200 sma line and waiting for price to hit the lower trendline or a strong support to buy again. Is this a wrong set up?
November 17, 2009 at 7:59 pm
Basically a combination of strong resistance above price action, recent fundamental action and experience determined my short setups today. I don’t use moving averages but that doesn’t mean they are bad or that you couldn’t. I look at key support/resistance levels, previous days high/lows, and some basic fundamentals (such as stock correlations) to determine the direction.
That might sound complicated but it isn’t at all.
November 17, 2009 at 6:33 pm
Lehmann
Usd/CAD looks better now !!
November 17, 2009 at 6:35 pm
Are u still in it? or did u get stoped out before?
November 17, 2009 at 6:50 pm
I had a 70sl and it made a uturn. Now 20 pos. 1st target .0370
November 17, 2009 at 6:52 pm
depends on where you got in, could have been a pretty nice trade. I am looking to go long around 0507 depending on price action if it gets there
November 17, 2009 at 6:53 pm
cad will need much higher oil prices before it will drop that far again, watch oil
November 17, 2009 at 6:54 pm
$/cad short at 1.0555
November 17, 2009 at 6:57 pm
very nice, lock in those pips. have a look at the $ index and the futures market ;)
November 17, 2009 at 7:00 pm
I does not look like a fast mover but I can stay as long as it takes
November 17, 2009 at 8:47 pm
i am long from 0507 15 tight 15 pip SL target I will trail
November 18, 2009 at 12:39 am
I closed this out for +2 pips. going to bed back at LO
November 17, 2009 at 6:52 pm
EUR/$ I take it everyone is long
November 17, 2009 at 6:54 pm
waiting for it to retrace this drop to the 50/618 fib area and then will be looking to short it again
November 17, 2009 at 6:55 pm
4910 to 4934 area if it gets there, 4900 will now give us resistance back up
November 17, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Hendrik, where is your target in USDCAD. it look like its only ranging between 1,0600-1,0525.
Im very bullish on USD, so im waiting for a good buy point.
November 17, 2009 at 7:22 pm
I agree buy maybe its due for a break
November 17, 2009 at 7:30 pm
The CPI numbers tomorrow will show the direction i guess
November 17, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Someone make it clear why u want to sell EURUSD please?
Its downtrend today, but arent u forgetting the bigger picture? We are getting pretty close to the bigger up-trends lower trendline. Seams a bit risky, thats all.
November 17, 2009 at 7:59 pm
Internals today were very strong and up volume was very strong at 87% of total NYSE volume. The Russell surged and broke last week’s high, but not the daily high.
The XLF on the other hand, is lagging big time, and is showing signs that it’s in its bear market wave 3 or C already. After falling in 5 waves late last week, the XLF rallied to the fibonacci 78.6% retracement level then sold off sharply. It did not follow the other main indices in a new high from last week. More evidence that this market is struggling to pull “everyone” higher to new highs
As long as these divergences on various time frames and with various indices/sectors remain in place, my conclusion is that we are in a major topping process in the stock market that will result an a huge and powerful wave 3 or C decline
it appears some degree of top is fast approaching.
The global economy does not show any reason for the dow to be where it is nor the equities markets, they are where they are on very low volumn.
look at the SP 500 the Dax oil gold and the $ index not just an EU chart. those are some the leading indicators of the market
November 17, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Thanx, a bit too technical for my brain, but i think i get it.
If i understand u correctly, there WILL be a correction comming.
Lets see… stocks and equities down. …and a stronger dollar as a result? This effects EUR as well i assume?
In that case we might see EURUSD breaking through this long going trend in a few days or so i guess.
November 17, 2009 at 8:09 pm
In other words, the bulls have been losing some steam as of late and as a day trader I looked to short this short-term trend. Medium term (technical) is still bullish, you are correct. We’ll see how the charts look during the start of the European session tomorrow…
November 17, 2009 at 8:50 pm
yes sir
tonight should show us short term direction to see if this can continue
November 17, 2009 at 8:23 pm
Come on guys this is a forum for the eur usd
Please try to refrain from complicating the reading
by posting comments about other pairs.
I’m sure Mark will back me on this
November 17, 2009 at 8:26 pm
Looking forward to this… exiting.