11-25-093
3:46a GMT – Resistance at 1.4980 proved to be the entry point yesterday as we got several bearish entry signals on the 30m and 1h charts to enter yesterday for about 60 pips (closed on failure of second target at 1.4915). By the way, the Candlestick Alert Service gave us several good signals on the 30m chart at 1.4980 – signals that yielded good pips if you were checking it out. I’ve gotten great feedback on the service so far, let me know your thoughts if you haven’t already.
Daily Outlook: Today I will pretty much sit on the sidelines no matter what happens. We have a major US holiday tomorrow (Thanksgiving) which means markets will be thin. Couple that with a variety of news events around the EUR and USD and you have a stop-killing-day waiting to happen. To those more adventurous souls we are nearing resistance at 1.5000 and 1.5015 if you are still looking for reasons to short. While we are still caught in the bearish channel yesterday stopped short of confirming the bearish trend.
Trading Idea: Again, I will be on the sidelines, but there will be selling opportunities at 1.50 and 1.5015 for those interested with targets down to 1.4950, 1.4915 and 1.4880.There will also be buying opportunities if you are feeling bullish on the pair with dips down to 1.4900.
(click to enlarge)
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November 25, 2009 at 07:01
anyone going short?
I did! short at 1.5000…
:)
November 25, 2009 at 07:27
I will not go short until I see a close below 1.4980
November 25, 2009 at 07:49
yes, i think short @ 1.5000
November 25, 2009 at 08:38
It looks like a perfect day for a “day off” to me?
November 25, 2009 at 08:41
Hi Mark
I do not communicate with any other Americans. Thanksgiving sounds great as we all can count our blessings. Can please give the background to this holiday! And a great one to you too!
November 25, 2009 at 16:26
Hendrik, from Wikipedia:
“Thanksgiving Day is a harvest festival. Traditionally, it is a time to give thanks for the harvest and express gratitude in general. It is a holiday celebrated primarily in Canada and the United States. While perhaps religious in origin, Thanksgiving is now primarily identified as a secular holiday.”
When I was growing up the general idea of Thanksgiving was that it was when the Pilgrims (the very first to come over from England) made peace with the native americans already here by having a big meal together. So we celebrate by having a big meal with our family and friends every year.
November 25, 2009 at 09:05
Hallo
Can anyone confirm that shooting star on the hourly graph???
November 25, 2009 at 09:07
Hendrik it depends on the attitude of the person who answers as to how complete. Me I’m a pessimest. Its when the native americans felt bad for the english settlers who came over here without enough food. They didnt prepare for the winter/fall and basically didnt know how to get enough food to eat (food wasnt everywhere, but nobody had to starve, etc..)
Then later the english settlers killed nearly all of the native americans for their land because there savages. And no I’m not an indian/native american, I’m old-school spanish.
I’m not a fan of the US’s version of its own history. I’m the blacksheep being born/raised in the US and realizing how much BS im walking in, but theres some history for you.
As far as shorting I’ve made a few trades but all but 2 have hit SL’s and of the 2 that didnt, I closed at break even or slightly above.
I’m down 10% account balance for less then 20 hours. I may give up till next week.
November 25, 2009 at 10:06
Thanks for your reply.
For those of us that went short, we might have to increase the sl as it will come down eventually. I find that everytime I take a loss cos of a false sign I stand to loose too much to my liking. For now I will bear the weight and cash in with a double order on the way down.
November 25, 2009 at 09:11
on the hourly graph, i see a doji and a shooting star!!!
Am I correct????
because the candlestick alert didnt pick it up?
So I am thinking maybe I’m wrong??
November 25, 2009 at 09:16
I short @ 1.5015.
November 25, 2009 at 09:18
why did you short?
Beacause of the shooting star and doji??
November 25, 2009 at 09:21
Theres deffinitely a shooting star…but still read Mark’s remark about today being a risky day
November 25, 2009 at 09:23
Yes I know today is risky!
I just wanted to know if I am seeing this right?
And the candlestick alert didnt pick up on it??
Maybe it will later??
November 25, 2009 at 09:28
Yes you are right, thats as good a shooting star as id ever need to enter:)
November 25, 2009 at 09:30
Thank you Nick
I am still in short :)
November 25, 2009 at 09:30
$/Y doing some serious muscle flexing! Surprizing it has not pulled the pound and Euro down more.
November 25, 2009 at 09:31
Oh! loss today… cant win em all i guess. I think im gonna wait and see where this is going.
November 25, 2009 at 09:34
Yep, im following Mark’s advice and staying out today. The market wont go anywhere
November 25, 2009 at 09:41
I think we could se 1.5100 today
November 25, 2009 at 09:58
probably 1.5050 tops :/ unles it retrace back to release some negative preshure and shoots to 1.5100 … every thing is posible this days :D
We dont have Thanksgiving holliday here but you guys have a good one :)
November 25, 2009 at 10:09
Watch the AUD/$ for a sell
November 25, 2009 at 10:20
Wheres resistance at these levels?
November 25, 2009 at 10:22
1.5040 and then 1.5065 – if that one brakes I expect it to go above 1.5100
November 25, 2009 at 10:34
k, thanx.
November 25, 2009 at 11:55
Mark,
I take it that tomorrow and friday would be good to sit it out as well?
November 25, 2009 at 16:28
yes. Banks will be open in the states on Friday but expect markets to be thin.
November 25, 2009 at 22:06
Thanks Mark. I now have bank holidays bookmarked. Maybe you could add this one to “Forex Tools” as well? :)
November 25, 2009 at 22:44
Ask and you shall receive:
http://piphut.com/forex-tools/forex-market-hours/
Underneath the hours I added a holiday list
November 25, 2009 at 12:17
You guys were right about the spike up 1.5100
i am short @1.5083 and keeping a close eye
and a close stop…
November 25, 2009 at 12:51
im short @1.5080, its right?
November 25, 2009 at 12:53
Yes is anyone else short??
I’m thinking about it?!?!
Is this maybe a false breakout????
November 25, 2009 at 12:55
i agree with you Zar
November 25, 2009 at 12:58
Wake up this morning to this huge spike, am I going long with the trend, no way! shorted 2 small positions at 5083,covering at 5068
November 25, 2009 at 13:05
What about you, Mark?
November 25, 2009 at 16:31
I’m sidelined today. Markets too thin, too much news.
November 25, 2009 at 13:05
Ok looks like everyone is shorting eur!
I like this…
I am in
Thanks guys for all the advice!
:)
Would like to hear what Ed, Hendrik an Mark has to say
November 25, 2009 at 13:23
Hi Zar,
Mark already said that he would sit on the side line today. As for me, I am already -60pips for today. Don’t think I will be getting in again or maybe for the rest of the week. Good luck.
November 25, 2009 at 14:17
ZAR
I went to sleep with a short as I was not satisfied with 60 pips. So – I’m in it heavy!! and watching it like a hawk for any candle that can confirm a downward trend – then I’m intending to double the order so that I can recoup my loss so far. I know I’m stubborn, but it seems to me I just can’t get rid of it. Well since end oct it has tested the high rest three times and currently a triple top is forming (D ch). We might see a bit of consolidation. So I’m hoping for a nice pullback to the support of 1.4800 (it might take some time). On the otherhand if the New Home sales are in the green we might see another spell of weakening. The guys that went long are celebrating and I’m sure are having a cold one right now. I doubt it if tomorrow’s news will have a great influence – so maybe next week I’ll be out trouble.
November 25, 2009 at 14:36
Wow Hendrik, I am in the same position!
I went in BIG(short)…
I now same as you, waiting to go short again!
Double my open position!
To atleast break even…
Please let me know if you are going in short again!
:)
Thanx Hendrik
November 25, 2009 at 14:45
Zar
Do not follow me if you are in a tight margin spot or strapped in any other way. If you are rather sit it out and minimise a loss in another way. I would say I have confirmation on the 30M & 1H to go short at 52. I have entered the same order (to be on the save side) and will add to my position on another rally on the 15H.
November 25, 2009 at 14:49
So are you going LONG also??
I’m going short again!
To break even from my losses!
Thank you Hendrik
November 25, 2009 at 13:08
I think there will be another spike to the upside :D
November 25, 2009 at 13:13
i think today range more than average range, so im short
November 25, 2009 at 13:18
i would like to see the pair reach 1.5100-1.5110 then it will be well in owerbought area :/ then i would go shot to 1.5000 ….
those smal retracments are just giving the pair eaven more fuel to go up lol
November 25, 2009 at 13:23
out at BE waiting on news, this puppy could spike up again
November 25, 2009 at 13:26
hi everyone,ya jevgenij im also looking for 1.5110 then i would go for short too but you never know if it go more high… what marks opinon?
November 25, 2009 at 13:33
yes you never know but those news and spikes took out my SL to many times lol ….
nou i rather miss out than enter to soon just to see how a spike just touch my SL and goes back down .
November 25, 2009 at 13:29
anybody tell me when bearish or bullish come i mean when pattern start and when end plz help me
November 25, 2009 at 13:30
yep it keaps trying to go above 1.5085 but cant go trugh :/
ok here we go there is some action going on :D
November 25, 2009 at 13:32
Sorry i dont understand ” D “
November 25, 2009 at 13:39
Understand what ?
November 25, 2009 at 14:28
Sorry sometimes I also do not understand, but I’m from the old school.
I take it that :) = smile; :/ = frown (not so happy) and :D means the same
November 25, 2009 at 18:47
:D its like a big smile
November 25, 2009 at 14:01
you write ……. going on:D
November 25, 2009 at 14:30
anybody tell me bullish or bearish chart..website or other think
November 25, 2009 at 15:08
We do not understand what you mean. In my opion the market break out of its bearish channel and is bullish again. So shorting it now is trading against the trend and very risky! If it is a hobby to trade do it. If your are here to improve your income be aware of the risk!!!!
November 25, 2009 at 15:01
Zar
No not long but short and remember I’m a cowboy and like to take risks —- hopefully it works out as time and reserves are on my side
November 25, 2009 at 15:02
Zar
it will be a bumpy ride!!
November 25, 2009 at 15:06
Hendrik, Yip the bigger the risk the greater the reward…
I hope everything works out for me and you!
:)
November 25, 2009 at 15:12
Hey Hendrik, same short here at 1.5060. where is yout stop?
November 25, 2009 at 15:29
You do not want to know!! I made provision for another weakening later
November 25, 2009 at 15:33
Hendrik, I can see me and you are trading with the same style…
:)
I like it!
November 25, 2009 at 17:02
ZAR
It’s going to take some guts to get out of this one
November 25, 2009 at 18:12
Yes , the only thing I can do now is to wait…
I hope its goes down before monday
:)
November 25, 2009 at 17:15
seams as it looses power at this level.
November 25, 2009 at 18:14
Mark, Thanks for this website…it’s amazing!!!! Happy Thanksgiving!
November 25, 2009 at 19:06
I just short @ 1.5094, Will it roll down some steps?
Will it bring some pips after NY USA time zone close?
Plz tell me.
November 25, 2009 at 19:09
If we would know that we wouldnt be here talking and trying to guess where its gona go :) hehe
November 25, 2009 at 19:25
HAHAHAH :) look at that spike lol
i knew its gona happen sooner or later tooday :)
November 25, 2009 at 19:41
whats that, 160 pips now, if i get a good signal i might be getting in short
November 25, 2009 at 19:48
jumped 50 pips in 5 sec ….
November 25, 2009 at 20:56
up up up, maybe it wont stop.
Some of u were short? how did that turn out?
Does anyone have a good idea of whats driving this? I mean i expected the market to be pretty quiet with some ups and downs at news time.
November 25, 2009 at 21:00
I’m glad I sat out today :). Always before holidays I see the markets get driven one direction or another on thin volume.
November 25, 2009 at 21:05
Me to, Ive been waiting for an opurtunity to get in, im very happy i didnt short, hehe
Say do you think it will be something similar tomorrow?
November 25, 2009 at 21:08
More volatile tomorrow if anything, I think.
November 25, 2009 at 21:16
K, Thanx. Ill be watching it.
November 25, 2009 at 21:07
Well, i’m in short at 5142 10 pip sl 20 pip tp, scalp mode for now maybe the boj has some inventory to unload later on tonite?
will add at 5147
November 25, 2009 at 21:12
Boj? Bank of Japan?
November 25, 2009 at 21:21
yes, daily candle looks kinda funky up here, it would look better down near 5100, but these thin markets can be manipulated higher
November 25, 2009 at 21:35
But thats a bearish engulfing pattern on the 30m chart isnt it?
November 25, 2009 at 21:37
If I were in the markets right now I’d be looking to buy on good dips. Trend is now bullish and it can always go higher :).
November 25, 2009 at 21:56
yes I agree, I want to go long near 5040 but geezz thats like 100 pips lower, I’d like to see a good smackdown about right now
November 25, 2009 at 22:05
hehe! “smackdown”
November 25, 2009 at 21:42
“This breakout above $1.51 really does not have any meaningful resistance until $1.55, so we’re moving into a new trend,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York.
We are in a new trend now?
November 25, 2009 at 21:55
This isn’t a new trend. Look at a daily chart or zoom out on the 4-hour chart. This has been a very clear trend all year long. I’m not a big Kathy Lien fan in general.
November 25, 2009 at 22:02
I never heard of the woman before. I got my self another a micro account at avafx, just to try them out. They give these news reports and its a quote from there. And thats how i got it.
Yes, I thought it was strange.
November 25, 2009 at 22:03
we are in a thin zone of resistance 5290 area is where it starts