11-30-09
6:45a GMT – Last Friday’s trade went off smoothly for 130 pips profit. We had a nice long 1h wick in our support zone; combine that with a nice bullish doji on the 30m charts (reported at the candlestick alert service) and we had a good reason to enter the trade, in the direction of the trend WITH candlestick confirmation. This is the essence of PipHut style trading.
Quick note to all those new to PipHut. Please read the FAQ for PipHut’s Signals and the Read Me: Using These Signals for more answers to common questions on PipHut. Just a reminder: PipHut does NOT use technical indicators for analysis/entries. If you read a comment about a technical indicator that is an individual PipHut community member using that indicator, not me :). Also, with the holiday and recent website changes I have been slow in getting back to some emails and forum posts. Sorry about that and I will definitely catch up with you this week! Enjoy today’s weekly and daily analysis below:
Weekly Outlook: Pair continues to be completely bullish on the daily and weekly charts. Price action has been constrained to a fairly narrow bullish channel since the beginning of 2009 when the price had a low of 1.2456 in March! In fact, in case there were any doubters of the technical aspects of this trend we were also rewarded with a very bullish looking hammer on the daily charts Friday of last week.
Daily Outlook: Given the strength of the daily trend and the bullish hammer on last Friday’s daily chart we will continue to look for dips to reset longs on going into Monday of this week. Nearest support I would look for a buy signal is the 1.5000-1.4980 support zone.
Trading Idea: Looking to buy a failure of the 1.50-1.4980 support zone, preferably with candlestick confirmation signals. Long targets from 1.4980 are 1.5015, 1.5050 and 1.5080.
(click to enlarge)
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November 30, 2009 at 08:21
good morning mark am just returning from work now.EUR/USD is already at i.5042.Please advise
November 30, 2009 at 08:22
Hakeem. The post above is my advice. Looking to buy on a dip.
November 30, 2009 at 08:41
THANKS MARK,I HAVE TAKEN A POSITION.BASED ON YOUR ADVISE AND AM ON A WATCH OUT FOR TREND CONTINUATION OR REVERSAL.I’VE STICK TO MY SYSTEM.HOPE TO GIVE PROFIT TESTIMONY SOON.HAPPY TRADING
November 30, 2009 at 15:05
Hakeem based on your comments I’m not sure you understand my meaning behind the signals or the PipHut way of using them. For example when you say you’ve taken a position based on my advice at 8:41a GMT there was absolutely no confirmation signal to go in either direction, nor were we at any support levels.
Please read the READ ME and the FAQ in the upper left nav bar and practice trading in a demo account until you get the hang of it.
Other than that, glad to have you here at PipHut!
November 30, 2009 at 09:05
Hi hakeem, Marks signal tells us to wait for a confirmation on the above support. So it is preferable not to be aggresive on those levels
November 30, 2009 at 09:05
Mark, what do you think about long term trend. I mean yearly. Do you think at the end of the next year it will reach 2.0 or we are expecting reversal to 1.0? I’m just looking for your opinion.
November 30, 2009 at 14:44
Prema, it is very very hard to say where we will be at the end of the year. Fundamentals can change so fast, risk appetite can swing on a dime. If I had to venture a guess (and that is all this is) I would say the EUR/USD will keep moving up based on technical analysis alone.
Though even that is hard to believe given how overbought US stocks are.
November 30, 2009 at 09:16
Hi Mark, those it mean after seeing a hammer on 30minutes or H1 chart that pierces the above support one should go long or still wait for the next hours candlestick for confirmation?
November 30, 2009 at 14:57
Depends on how aggressive you want to be. That is always the give and take of waiting for more confirmation:
more confirmation = worse entry price + higher win %.
Less confirmation = better entry price + lower win %
November 30, 2009 at 09:33
Great result on friday seems the bulls always get there own way.
Trading at a 1 pip spread and piphut.com are two things i am very thankful for right now.
I am waiting for a dip before going long, made a few pips on the way down with my finger on the trigger.
November 30, 2009 at 10:32
I was waiting for a dip to go long now the price of 14980 is where i’ll keep an eye for it. Thanks Mark most of ur strategies have good result for me
November 30, 2009 at 10:46
Hi, everybody thanks Mark for this everything you did in this forum and for you daily tips hope to learn from this forum and i’m going to do my first trade today.
November 30, 2009 at 15:07
No problem, glad to have you here :)
November 30, 2009 at 15:08
Also, make sure you’ve built up your confidence on a practice account for awhile first.
November 30, 2009 at 15:16
thanks man i bought it as you said below 1.500 and i checked also the candles 1 hammer 2 dogi. waiting to sell it at 1.580 hope to see it there
November 30, 2009 at 15:58
Carlos,
Did you mean 1.5080 instead of 1.5800?
November 30, 2009 at 16:00
yah 1.5080
November 30, 2009 at 11:35
hello Mark,
Great site, i notice that the time the advice comes the action would have happened already. please help. how can i get your email faster
November 30, 2009 at 15:07
David. I’m concerned you are not reading the signal correctly. For example today we have only within the past hour gotten into the support zone so you haven’t “missed out” on anything yet (yet you made this post 5 hours ago).
Make sure you read the FAQ and the Read Me files referenced in the top of the post.
November 30, 2009 at 11:40
i would take care with your first trade carlos.
i am waiting for a further dip to the levels that mark mentioned ,another 40 pip drop like that will do fine.
see no reason to change plan just yet as we are sideway’s after that last drop.
November 30, 2009 at 11:43
Thanks Rik i didnt start yet i’m waiting for the support marked mentioned above.
November 30, 2009 at 11:47
Hi Mark,
First, i like to thank you for pointing me in the correct about not shorting while waiting for dips when the overall trend is bullish. I have read the writeup you had posted and it shed light to my trading flaws.
As for today, i had been looking at the charts (just got home from work actually GMT +8), and the trading idea was to buy on dips 1.50-1.4980 with candlestick confirmation. From the 4 hour chart (3 months), we have witness strong resistance for that “resistance-turned-support line”: 1.50.
From that, are you suggesting we wait for a positive candlestick at 1.4980-1.50 before we open a position? If not, the relative risk is pretty high with the next weak support at 1.4900 area (-80 pips) and a strong support at 1.4800-1.4850 (-150pips etc.). Stops should be really tight in order to maximize gains.
And i am really amazed that you do only support/resistance + Fibonacci for your analysis. I have the same idea that keeping things simple yet effective is the way to go.
Cheers!
November 30, 2009 at 15:11
Good writeup Brandon. I am personally waiting for candlestick confirmation on the pair (which we just had last hour). Now that I have the confirmation though I am being a bit more conservative in waiting for a dip back to support zone to get a better entry price and risk/reward ratio as the bullish hammer only just pierced support.
November 30, 2009 at 12:54
I’ve posted a chart on the forum; general; EUR/USD.
Thanks Mark it works fine!!!
November 30, 2009 at 14:13
Very nice Hendrik!
So I assume you are going long?
November 30, 2009 at 14:15
Mark, why is there a message on my reply?? “your comment is awaiting moderation”???
November 30, 2009 at 15:12
Zar, not sure. For some reason the website has been flagging random posts recently. I approved it and I’ll try and figure out why it is doing that. You didn’t do anything wrong :).
November 30, 2009 at 15:21
Ok thanx Mark
November 30, 2009 at 16:04
Zar,
I had this message a few times and what it end up being is that my new or reply posts had not posted. I did a refresh for this page and the message cleared. After I logged off and back on, I didn’t see the message again.
November 30, 2009 at 14:46
Zar yes I’m long @13. The market caught me a bit unawares as I’m busy with renovations and cannot stay with the computer
November 30, 2009 at 14:49
You sound busy :)
In your chart, you said if it breaks that bearish channel then you would go long?
Or did you ment, if it didn’t break??
November 30, 2009 at 15:00
My intention was to go long if it breaks. If not I would have stayed out for the day. The break is very near to the 23.6 fib. So if it continues the upward trend I suspect that Mark” target might be exceeded. I do have Tp at Mark’s last target, and if the trend is strong I might stay in overnight with a trailing stop
November 30, 2009 at 13:52
Good morning Mark, I hope you had a wonderful weekend.
Just a question:
Which broker do you use? my charts look different from yours I guest because of the broker’s chart.
thanks.
November 30, 2009 at 15:13
Asdry, how do your charts look different? I use the metatrader 4 client for my analysis charts which many brokers offer.
December 7, 2009 at 14:33
Hi Mark, sorry for my answer dilate.
I posted a new comment in the forums section with one of my chart’s picture please look at it, so you can see more clearly what I mean.
thanks.
November 30, 2009 at 15:01
Good bullish hammer close in our support zone last hour.
November 30, 2009 at 15:09
I still say Mark for president!!!
November 30, 2009 at 15:14
I hear being president is a pretty bad gig but thanks for the vote :)
November 30, 2009 at 15:19
Now Mr President, if it pleases you, may I direct your attention to the forum and further would your kindly cast your eyes on me ? re the GBP.
I thank you most kindly.
November 30, 2009 at 15:30
I would also like to hear about GBP/USD!
What do you think Mr President?
November 30, 2009 at 15:03
Zar
Mark’s signal for the day was good just look at the hammer on H1
November 30, 2009 at 15:24
Who is long? Bullish hammer, I will wait for the next hour and wait for a little retrace. Hope I wont miss out in this
November 30, 2009 at 15:32
I am in LOOOOOONG :)
November 30, 2009 at 15:48
wonderful! i got another chanse to get in.
November 30, 2009 at 16:02
For those curious I have a long entry at 1.4980. Being conservative.
November 30, 2009 at 16:07
So where will your stop loss be Mark?
November 30, 2009 at 16:21
1.4940
November 30, 2009 at 16:15
Mark,
Is it correct to say that you have not entered any trade yet and is waiting on 1.4980 to enter long?
I need some help with this. I understand your signal and will follow. However, if I was trading alone without your guidance/direction, I would be afraid to enter on a long at the 1.5000 level because I would think that it would bounce off that resistance. I would probably enter on a short and then lose my money. What things (besides today being a bullish day) should I be looking at to be more cofident that this is a buy and not a sell at this level? I hope I didn’t make the question difficult (which is what I might be doing when trading – making things too difficult instead of just going with the trend).
November 30, 2009 at 16:26
Lisa, I do not look at anything else besides the information in my analysis above. The only difference is I’ve been doing this long enough to have confidence in my trading strategy, my money management and my long-term outcome.
The only way to acquire that confidence is to trade – either with a demo account or a very, very small micro account.
Too many times I see new traders turn to technical indicators as a way to make up for the lack of confidence, only to not really understand how to use those indicators or they just serve to muddy their initial analysis.
November 30, 2009 at 17:08
Mark,
I am sure you are right. I am doing fine trading with Piphut and following the rules with my money management and trading strategy (the piphut way). It is when I decide on my own (mostly impatience or greed) not to follow the rules. I guess I should just keep trading and the confidence will come.
November 30, 2009 at 17:13
Patience is a tough one. I still struggle with patience sometimes. I think “I know the price is going to move this direction, why not open a position just to capture a few pips in this direction?”
I had that sort of thought-process a lot when I first started trading. And it might work a few times but inevitably you suddenly get stuck on the wrong side of the landslide, angry at yourself for jumping into a trade you knew wasn’t solid from the get-go.
November 30, 2009 at 17:19
Mark,
You’re right but I am determined to learn this and try to do it right so that I may succeed.
November 30, 2009 at 16:04
who is long?
November 30, 2009 at 16:06
Mark, since when? on that spike down @7:40-45 ish?
November 30, 2009 at 16:13
Is like it still struggling around 1.5
November 30, 2009 at 16:17
Good morning to everybody, I am new to this site and I want to thank Mark for his time and good will sharing his knowledge. I would like to know your time zone Mark, so I can relate to mine, I am in Mexico.
Thank you Mark.
November 30, 2009 at 16:18
Hi again! No need to reply, I just saw the time stamp in my post. Thanks anyway!
November 30, 2009 at 16:32
ok I am starting to stress :(
November 30, 2009 at 16:47
Zar
Hey buddy…. cool it. We’ll get out of it again. Sign was good.. there’ll be another one!!
November 30, 2009 at 16:50
Thanx hendrik :)
I guess we must just wait now… :)
November 30, 2009 at 17:17
Zar,
Are you stressing because you have a Buy and your SL has been hit or about to be hit?
November 30, 2009 at 18:24
Hey Lisa
I got in eur big time!
And all the indicators said sell! If it wasnt for piphut, I am sure I would have short the eur… :)
Are you in the trade Lisa?
December 1, 2009 at 02:16
Zar,
I got in a buy at 1.4980
November 30, 2009 at 16:39
bought some more at 80. hope it dont crash now
November 30, 2009 at 16:53
Hi Markus,
What SL are you using when you bought @ 80? Would you keep it pretty tight because if it broke this support, wouldnt it keep going down?
November 30, 2009 at 17:03
I dont know how much money i losed on tight Stops. Something i learned from mark is to put the SL below(in this case) support, the stronger the better. My SL is the same as Marks at 1.4940. The support is at about 1.4950 (atleast from what i can out of it, from the charts)
November 30, 2009 at 16:53
Zar carefull with a possible add-on. It can happen again..
November 30, 2009 at 17:04
Yes it can! “add-ons” are one of the biggest killers of a beginner’s account, and the exact reason the NFA in the US made some recent changes to the way brokers handle stops/take profit orders.
Remember: you have to be able to take losses just as easily as you take wins in trading. Trading is not about winning 100% of your trades – that just won’t happen and if that is your goal then I recommend you stop trading immediately before you lose your entire account. Losses are just as big a part of trading as wins. In fact I would argue learning to handle losses is a much larger part of trading than winning.
Using proper money management there are successful traders who don’t even win 50% of their trades but their wins are large enough to make them profitable. Could you stomach losing 5 times in a row on a 50-100 pip stop – or larger? It happens and if you don’t have the strategy or the account to handle it you are in for a very short and unprofitable ride :). There is no way you can only risk 10 pips every time and be successful in the long run. Or worse not using a stop-loss at all.
FYI my long was tripped at 1.4980.
November 30, 2009 at 17:17
So Mark, were you aggressive at 1.4980, because I couldnt see any good hammer on the 1hour chart?
November 30, 2009 at 17:26
Nnagozie, read my various comments above. We had a bullish hammer at the 14:00 GMT which prompted me to place an entry at 1.4980 without further confirmation. Maybe I should color my comments blue or another color to make them easier to find over the other comments?
November 30, 2009 at 17:47
Amen to that… and may I add — the value per pip is also a big problem … too eager to make money fast…You can always add to your position … provide the trend is strong!!
November 30, 2009 at 18:26
Thank you Mark for all the advice and training!
I am learning alot!
And thanks to Hendrik! :)
November 30, 2009 at 17:17
Got bullish 15min candles
November 30, 2009 at 17:25
your words smack true, mark. cowboys get killed
November 30, 2009 at 17:48
Hey …. I’m still living…:)
November 30, 2009 at 17:53
I’m with you hendrik :) It is making me nervous though
November 30, 2009 at 18:08
Hi Mark or someone who can help me. How do you know that a resistance/support line traced in the chart is not valid anymore and you can delete it?
I have several lines on my chart and want to delete some of them.
I have posponed this questions for several days because I tried to figured it out by myself without good results. If it was asked before can you guys help me where to find the answer?
Thanks a lot.
November 30, 2009 at 18:11
Juan That is an excellent question. I am wondering the same thing. I have a ton of lines on my chart. So much that it is hard to buy at support and sell on resistance when they are right on top of each other. Thank you for asking this question.
November 30, 2009 at 18:40
Put your cursor on it
double left click
see the the little block on the r/h side of the screen?
yeah? well right click once on the block
sub menu appears
select delete
OR
cursor anywhere on chart
right click
go to Object list
select those you want to delete
OR
SEE HELP MENU
November 30, 2009 at 18:36
Juan, short answer is “keep it if is still valid, delete if it is not valid”.
The long answer is how do you determine if it is still valid. I’ll have to do a longer write-up on that and get back to you.
November 30, 2009 at 19:10
Thanks Hendrik anyway. Mark what I meant was the long answer. I see that your chart has few Support/resistance lines than mine. I really appreciate if you can write about it. For me is critical to know when we can disregard a line traced.
November 30, 2009 at 18:34
well this is my first trade and i’m still alive thats means something thanks mark.
November 30, 2009 at 18:35
:). Demo or real? I always recommend practicing on a demo for (literally) months before live trading. Not the sexy option, I know, but forex is not a “get rich quick” plan like some make it out to be.
November 30, 2009 at 18:38
i have practiced lot of demos thats why i waited till the entry point :)
November 30, 2009 at 18:40
one more question the lowest point was 1.4974, that means if the trend is up the target 1.5080 has changed? to lower entries
November 30, 2009 at 18:59
If you entered lower you could change the tp levels but in general they stay the same. I entered at 1.4980 because that is where my entry was so my tps remain.
November 30, 2009 at 19:51
Thanks Hendrik anyway. Mark what I meant was the long answer. I see that your chart has few Support/resistance lines than mine. I really appreciate if you can write about it. For me is critical to know when we can disregard a line traced.
November 30, 2009 at 20:09
great question juan! but hasn’t mark with his chart analysis/call already intimated not only what might be ignored but what shouldn’t?
November 30, 2009 at 20:23
First target at 1.5015 hit.
November 30, 2009 at 20:47
Yep! Thank you Mark :)
November 30, 2009 at 20:56
Thanks Mark i sold half of my lots at 1.5020 the remaining ones are for 1.5050 :)
My first target was 35Pips and now waiting for the second one it was good for the first trade.
November 30, 2009 at 21:06
Mark,
Whats with that doji at 8.30 gmt – are you staying in or bailing ?
November 30, 2009 at 21:11
I will stay in. Not unusual to see false candlestick signals. But against the overall trend I will stick with the original analysis. We might see a little dip here.
November 30, 2009 at 21:17
Thanks mate
November 30, 2009 at 21:19
Could be normal selling pressure due to Dow closeing shortly
November 30, 2009 at 23:12
why is anyone long now.. we’re pushing resistance on the 30min, 1HR and 4HR aren’t we??
November 30, 2009 at 23:38
Alvin, there is always support and resistance that you could be looking at, worrying about. In any given trade on a good timeframe you will always meet levels of S/R, some expected some not. I don’t micromanage my trades which means I don’t close them every stall or every candlestick that looks like it could go against me.
If you try and capture every move in the markets you’ll be jumping at shadows 80% of the time :).
And you’d be long because that is the direction of the overall trend.
November 30, 2009 at 23:57
Nice jump there :)
November 30, 2009 at 23:53
Mark, seams to me that your right most of the time. Did you ever do an estimate of how often your right/wrong?
Maybe that would jinx it, hehe
November 30, 2009 at 23:58
It’s actually on my 3 page todo list for PipHut :)
December 1, 2009 at 00:08
hehe, ok. So your keeping busy then. You do good work Mark, thanx.
December 1, 2009 at 00:04
Mark all I can say is ” just keep doing what your doing ” don’t do anything to jinx yourself:) Thank you, Thank you
December 1, 2009 at 00:28
Heading for target two – good things come to those who wait.
been waiting for hours for a rise – great call again mark – your signal helps me from jumping in to early which was a big fault in my trading.
December 1, 2009 at 00:51
Wasn’t expecting that dip down to the first target though :)