11-10-09
7:06a GMT – No entry for yesterday’s signal as the EURUSD continued upward with no real dip toeven consider buying on. Fundamentally we just saw the forex markets get rocked by a report saying that the UK was the country most likely to lose its AAA credit-rating status. Note that the report did NOT say that they WILL lose their rating, just that they COULD. It was enough to move the markets like the best of rate decisions though, pushing the GBP/USD down over 100 pips in 10 minutes (the GBP/JPY lost about170+) and the USD in general gained against almost every other currency.
In the big picture this changes little fundamentally as big money already knew that this was the case. More interesting, I thought, was a report that came out saying that the world’s oil reserves are actually much lower and closer to running out than world governments let on.
Technically none of this changed much of anything, except to offer traders like us some good entry points if you happened to be watching the markets or PipHut’s twitter page (http://twitter.com/piphut). We had a nice dip on the EUR/USD to support at 1.4950 that I longed for some quick pips back up to 1.5000. The resulting candlestick at that location was a bullish hammer, and I will look to reset a long in the 1.4950 support area.
Trading Idea: Looking for longs in the 1.4930-1.4950 support area with targets at 1.4985, 1.5020 and 1.5045.
(click to enlarge)
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November 10, 2009 at 08:11
Hi Mark,
I noticed that you tweeted about an AUDUSD setup, but did not mention it here – care to elaborate on what you are seeing w/ the Aussie ?
November 10, 2009 at 08:19
Hi Mark,
Re: support….
Did you identify 1.4930 support from the 11/9 GMT 00:00, 01:00 and 02:00 1hr candles?
November 10, 2009 at 09:07
Ed look at 1h C – 9 Nov as from 05h00 to 07h00 with support at 1.4928; 1.4930 & 1,4934
November 10, 2009 at 09:29
Hi Henrick,
I checked that out. But it looks like my chart times are differnt and I can’t find the option that ID’s what time frame its on.
Thanks for your help!
November 10, 2009 at 09:42
Looks like my Chart is set for EST.
November 10, 2009 at 09:05
AUSUSD looked like a better entry. I have two 10k lots in @ 0.9272.
November 10, 2009 at 09:26
Ed, why do you say that?
November 10, 2009 at 09:38
It looked too late for me to get in on EURUSD. Seen AUDUSD near support and went in as soon as I saw a bullish hammer forming.
November 10, 2009 at 09:42
O ok! Thank you Ed!
I am now in both trades! Aud and eur…
:)
November 10, 2009 at 09:20
Anybody reacted on the hammer?
November 10, 2009 at 09:27
Yes I did!!
Did you?
November 10, 2009 at 09:33
yip
November 10, 2009 at 10:47
@Hendrik, at what time frame?
November 10, 2009 at 11:01
1 hour chart
November 10, 2009 at 11:03
Hi Nnagozie I used the 1H. I waited for due confirmation as the second candle after the hammer (bear)nearly threw me as I thought it might be a false signal.
November 10, 2009 at 15:04
was this for the EUR/USD and at what GMT time on the 1 hr chart?
November 10, 2009 at 09:54
The chf did not let me down I’m in since 3 Nov at 1.0300
November 10, 2009 at 09:57
The gbp also looks like a good long
November 10, 2009 at 10:05
Mark when you said you entered long at the hammer that pierced 1.4950 , i get it you got in after the hammer candle close @ 1.4970 and ran for 30 ?
November 10, 2009 at 15:40
No I had an entry in at 1.4955
November 10, 2009 at 15:50
So you didnt enter on candle confirmation just at resistance ?
November 10, 2009 at 15:55
Not on that one. When the trend is pretty clear in one direction I’ll get more aggressive in my entries.
November 10, 2009 at 16:04
Ok, thanks for your time to reply:)
November 10, 2009 at 10:31
hi mark, I also saw the GBP/USD dip just now. Pretty scary, great write up too. thanks
November 10, 2009 at 10:51
I am long on GBPUSD @ 1.6650, SL at the same level
November 10, 2009 at 10:55
At what level will you take profit on gbp??
November 10, 2009 at 11:00
63 pips now on that, dont know whether to exit but SL is on the price I entered
November 10, 2009 at 11:02
yes I got 73 pips so far!!
Sl also on my entry!
But not sure when to take profit
November 10, 2009 at 11:08
my first target is at 61.8 of the fib
November 10, 2009 at 11:12
and where would that be Hendrik?
November 10, 2009 at 11:00
hi all looking for dips to buy thamx
November 10, 2009 at 11:22
so do we all
November 10, 2009 at 11:02
I placed my TP at 1.6780, put the pair is finding some resistance
November 10, 2009 at 11:06
I placed my TP at 1.6780, but the pair is finding some resistance
November 10, 2009 at 11:21
Zar re fib
1h Chart draw the fib from the significant top (6841) to bottom(6599) – bottom = 0
November 10, 2009 at 11:32
1.6746 fib at 61.8%
Is that what u are getting?
November 10, 2009 at 11:34
spot on
November 10, 2009 at 11:38
Thanx Hendrik! :)
November 10, 2009 at 12:22
That hammer did not amount to much. I will have look at a possible re-enter at 14h00 – 15h00.
November 10, 2009 at 12:52
yip I am with you!
Why do you so between 14h and 15h???
November 10, 2009 at 13:21
It’s a rough estimate of a time line. It does not always pan out. (I can do something else in the meantime.) I suppose you will ask what is a time line – I’ve drawn a trendline on the 30m chart and a horizontal line at the prev low and vertical line at the cross. The line indicates a time.
November 10, 2009 at 13:15
guys eur/usd is close to what mark mentioned as entry point 14950, should i buy in this area? 14960 and go long? please advice assap
November 10, 2009 at 13:19
NY and London sesions … higer volatility during that time …
if we are looking EU time :D
November 10, 2009 at 13:30
OK thank you Hendrik an Jevgenij!
:)
Learning alot
November 10, 2009 at 13:37
let’s see what happens – it might work or not. It coincides with Mark’s support of 1.4950
November 10, 2009 at 13:51
Learning is a never ending story!!!
November 10, 2009 at 13:56
Ed are you still in the Aussie?
November 10, 2009 at 14:12
Yes. I am actually in it for free. Did the 2 lot rule where I had one lot at TP when the price hit 0.9295. The remaining lot now has it’s SL covered. So it’s a no risk trade for the AUDUSD for me. :)
November 10, 2009 at 14:21
Sorry Ed, I trade with global trader! And dont really know what is a lot?? Is it 2 trades?
Still not 100% sure of that 2lot trading rule ?!!
November 10, 2009 at 14:40
Hi Zar,
This is from Ed Ponsi’s book “Forex Patterns and Probabilities”
-In the forex market, traders buy and sell “lots.” The smallest position that a trader can take in the forex market is “one lot.” Each lot consists of 100,000 units of currency. So if you are long one lot of the EUR/USD currency pair, in reality you are long 100,000 units of the base currency and short 100,000 units of the counter or quote currency. Therefore, a trader who is long one lot of the EUR/USD currency pair is actually long 100,000 euros, and simultaneously short an equivalent amount of U.S. dollars.-
November 10, 2009 at 14:49
O ok!
Now it is making much more sense!
Thank you Ed
November 10, 2009 at 14:21
Approaching support at 1.4955
November 10, 2009 at 14:24
is this a good buy place or we shoudl wait a signal? and what would the signal be..
is it good procative i place a pending order on 14955? so that system buys there ? or its risky and depending on the signal
thx alot mark.
November 10, 2009 at 15:16
Hassan,
I would like to know this as well.
Mark is it ok to get in on a signal at the signal entry level or do we wait for a candlestick confirmation which you may risk losing some pips?
November 10, 2009 at 14:33
Thanks Mark. I just got in EURUSD now.
November 10, 2009 at 14:51
Zar the time line did not do that bad!
November 10, 2009 at 15:01
Yes you were SPOT ON :)
I did re-entered at 1.4961
EUR/USD
November 10, 2009 at 14:54
Hello Everyone,
Just a general comment.
Since this forum/signal mainly focuses on the EUR/USD and since I am a newbie, would you let us know when you are discussing another forex pair because sometimes that can be very confusing to a newbie when the comments are switching between EUR/USD and then to other pairs and you’re not informed. Just something to keep in mind when posting comments.
November 10, 2009 at 15:11
The previous hour ended with a broken hammer. I only entered in the last minutes, going for smal profit (about 1.501), and risking litle. For those who wants to risk more take a look at the gbpjpy, it is in a up-trende and finished the hour with something like an hammer. It gots a resitance/support about 150.6 and can climb really high. But be aware, it is one of the most dangerous pair of them all, sometimes look like a roller-coster.
November 10, 2009 at 15:26
Nuno what’s the spread with your broker?
November 10, 2009 at 16:15
Hi Hendrik,
my spread in gbpjpy is huge, 6 pips.
Nuno
November 10, 2009 at 16:18
5-6 pips is pretty standard for most brokers. Since it is a cross pair you are in essence paying the spread twice – 3 pips on GBP/USD and 3 pips on USD/JPY for 6 pips total.
November 10, 2009 at 15:31
Mark
we have a triple top – in your exp do you think we might see a nice break out above 1.5015?
November 10, 2009 at 15:43
What time frame are you seeing that triple top on?
November 10, 2009 at 16:02
It looks like hourly…
If I am getting this correct
November 10, 2009 at 15:33
ok triple top?? Please explain?
I dont want to sound stupid and waste your time…
Thank you
November 10, 2009 at 15:38
see 1) 9 Nov 1.5019 at 14h00; 2) 10 Nov 1.5011 at 00h00; and 3) 1.5019 at 10h00
November 10, 2009 at 16:42
Mark and Hendrik,
Would this be considered a trip top on the 1 hr chart? I thought this was a double top on 10 Nov 1.5011 @ 00h00 and 1.5019 @ 10h00. I know that it reached 1.5019 on 9 Nov @ 14h00.
But is this really a trip top since it is split like this? I am just trying to learn.
November 10, 2009 at 15:40
“Triple top” is normally a reversal pattern. If you see a price being hit 3 times from below and rejected (as we recently had seen 1.5015 level with EURUSD), then you should reasonably expect a quite significant move down (at least to the level of a lowest low between three tops).
November 10, 2009 at 15:47
ok so eur is now bearish
will quickly go and look at that triple top!
Thank you
November 10, 2009 at 15:37
How do you know where to put the sup/res (red lines)?
November 10, 2009 at 15:42
Jason
refer to Quick links underneath the daily chart
November 10, 2009 at 15:46
Jason,
There is a learn forex link for support/resistance level on the middle leftside of this page that can give you some assistance.
November 10, 2009 at 16:05
Thanks, I got an idea.
November 10, 2009 at 15:47
Put them at the levels where a significant buying (support) or selling (resistance) occured.
November 10, 2009 at 15:44
Would you guys prefer if new comments were at the top or bottom of the page?
November 10, 2009 at 15:49
Mark,
I like the new comments at the bottom of the page because I read from top to bottom and most of the times I like to read the comments from the beginning to follow the discussions.
Just in case I haven’t told you lately, THANKS!!!!
November 10, 2009 at 16:25
It is great as it is now, KIS with an S taken out
November 10, 2009 at 16:00
Yes I agree with Lisa :)
Thank you Mark
November 10, 2009 at 17:13
Dear Mark,
I forgot to say thanks to you after another +45 pips that you’ve “gave” to me.
Btw,did you already answer my Q about your trading History?
Thanks again
November 10, 2009 at 17:37
Yoshi, what was your question again? Sometimes it’s easy for a comment to get lost in the shuffle..
November 10, 2009 at 17:38
Seams like EURUSD is moving down, u guys think it will continue for a bit or stop and maybe go up again. To me it looks like it will go to about 1.4920… What do u guys think?
November 10, 2009 at 19:25
Markus…I reckon it is going to bounce off the H4 upward trend. Got some nice candles on H1 to confirm it. I am in at 1.4971 for 20 pips
November 10, 2009 at 19:57
Paulh
What do you mean by H4 and H1? Also, are you in a buy or a sell at 1.4971?
November 10, 2009 at 19:59
h4 is the 4-hour chart, h1 is the 1-hour chart
November 10, 2009 at 20:38
Mark,
I thought that but I just wasn’t for sure what Paul meant by bounce of the h4 upward trend and candles on the h1 to confirm it. Is he saying that it’s going to go up or down or what is he saying?
November 10, 2009 at 19:39
what is the best time frame to use? If my indicators tell me I have a trade on the 4 hour chart, and the 30 min & 15 min charts are going in the opposite direction, will the larger time frames dominate over the smaller times frames?
thank you.
November 10, 2009 at 19:54
Stew,
I am not an expert with this but from my experience thus far with working with these charts have indicated that the short term charts (30 min and 15 min) work as they should in a shorter time span and the longer term charts (1 hr, 4-hr,daily) may take longer than the short term charts to show its trend as it should but the longer term charts have resulted in more reliable charts as compared to the short timeframe charts.
November 10, 2009 at 21:11
Yes looks ok, im in. I think he meant that it will bounce of the lower suport and go up again. Thats teh way it looked to me anyways. Lets see how it goes
November 10, 2009 at 22:09
Mark
Are you not using fibo anymore, I notice they are not highlighted on your charts lately
November 10, 2009 at 22:15
Clint, I only use fibo when I think its needed (e.g. long trend with no retracement or lack of support/resistance). In general I try to use absolutely zero indicators, only visible price action.
November 10, 2009 at 22:40
Keep it simple, Thanks Mark
November 10, 2009 at 22:40
hmmm i see a Eavening doji star on a daily chart :/ wonder if there is a sell off foolowing …
November 11, 2009 at 01:36
Mark,
I still do not understand how to use candlestick to confirm trends, do you have any document on how to confirm using candlestick. Appreciate it.
Thanks
November 11, 2009 at 06:29
http://www.tradingpricepatterns.com/
have a look here, it has lots of good information
November 11, 2009 at 08:13
Tom, Thanks for the site and it has lots of useful info.
November 11, 2009 at 12:45
mark i will really like to know how u go about your trades and how you understand the fundamental so well so i can be able to analysis the market myself as well…..
November 10, 2009 at 16:05
I agree its best like it is at the moment