12-18-09
5:14a GMT – Before today’s signal I want to say something quick about patience. As you all probably know I talk about NOT trading about as much as I talk about trading. About waiting for a good pullback to buy/sell on, about waiting for confirmation, and about not minding if I miss a trade because there will always be another one. It’s one of the hardest things to learn in becoming a trader but I think the most important. I’m going to write a full article on it this weekend but until then please 30 seconds and read this post by James in the forum on Patience and Trading here. Feel free to share your own thoughts and stories (reply to the forum please) so we can all grow as a community.
On to the signal! Markets will probably be thin today due to it being Friday and so close to the holidays. We’ve definitely seen the end-of-year increase in volatility that many of us were expecting, and Friday’s can make it even worse. As always use stops and good money management. No entry on yesterday’s sell signal as the price dropped like a rock and never looked back. Mind the news event at 9a GMT – details on the forex calendar.
Daily Outlook: Short-term trend is obviously still bearish, and we have a short-term resistance in place at 1.4420 that should provide a good guide as to the direction of the pair on the day. 1.4420 is the 38.2% retracement of Wednesday’s high and Thursday’s low and has been twice tested (7:00 and 14:00 yesterday).
Trading Idea: Below 1.4425 I am bearish. For the day I will look for a bearish confirmation signal (candlestick, failure, etc.) to enter on with short targets at 1.4390, 1.4355 1.4320 and 1.4290. If 1.4425 is broken to the upside look for a re-challenge of 1.4500.
(click to enlarge)
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December 18, 2009 at 15:51
wow!!! the bulls cant put up a fight
December 18, 2009 at 16:09
Nice one today Mark got a few pips from the hangman earlier today
December 18, 2009 at 17:06
That hanging man certainly turned out to be profitable. I wasn’t going to enter until 1.4420 area but we had a hanging man on the 30m and 1h in a strong downtrend… it was too good to turn down :)
December 18, 2009 at 17:53
Mark,
I missed it today because of work but I practiced patience and didn’t try to get in too late or get in on a long just because I missed the entry point of the short. After the post about patience, I feel pretty good even though I missed that trade because I know I will have another opportunity.
Thanks and have a good weekend.
December 18, 2009 at 18:28
That’s great Lisa! Honestly patience is the hardest thing to learn. If there is one thing that is sure in the markets is that there will ALWAYS be another trade if you miss out on the current one.
December 19, 2009 at 05:11
Hi Mark, I didn’t go in any trade. I have a question. Which entry point did you take? Isn’t the candle at 18th December 08.30 30Min-chart a gravestone doji instead of hanging man? Is that the entry point that you guys went in? And there were 3 hanging man for 1H-chart from the candlestick alert.
Thanks. I guess I need a lot more practice on opening my eyes on entry points :)
December 18, 2009 at 16:24
This is a total harassment on the bulls, just back out to the daily chart and see what the bears has done to the bulls since the 2nd of december
December 18, 2009 at 17:28
Hi Mark,
If you have a few minutes, can you have a look on my new post ”uptrend” and let me know what you think?
December 18, 2009 at 17:30
hey Charles, I already did :). Good posts!
December 18, 2009 at 17:47
yeah What a drop for the day, did not have my network working was watching the changes from the telly, bit old style, dont really know.
Now closed my short from the early morning and opened a small long a just scalping some rebound pips until heading for a little cristmas parties….
December 18, 2009 at 17:33
thanks… i hope it work!
yesterday had a small light punch on the EURCHF! :)
December 18, 2009 at 17:37
Hello everybody it is been 1 week and i’m missing all the actions here, i had a seminar and i couldn’t do a single trade all i have to say i envy you this week and thanks mark for the effort of creating this tremendous community which for sure i’m learning a lot although this is my first month as an daily trader.
PS: although i wasn’t trading but i was reading all the comments and the charts since piphut.com and pipstars became addiction to me :) hope matt grind some pips out there also.
December 18, 2009 at 17:56
Hey Carlos, I was wondering were you went. Yep Mark has been teaching me allot and calling some great signals. I am finally get account up in the GREEN. Glad to see you back, was it at least a fun seminar.
December 18, 2009 at 18:00
sorry for the bad spelling, I don’t do good when I try and type fast.LOL :)
December 18, 2009 at 18:12
Well my account is green also i was able to pull some out of it heheh, and the seminar was serious :( related to information security hope next week to shoot some pips out of the stars :) have a nice weekend matt and everybody. and thanks Mark again.
December 18, 2009 at 18:15
You to Carlos, Have a safe, fun weekend. :) We’ll get them next week to.
December 18, 2009 at 18:22
you guys think theres any point in trying to go short again at 1.4310 – 1.4320 area?
looks like its resistance there, previous support.
December 18, 2009 at 18:44
Hej Markus!Hur mor Du? Göteborg?
I am long from previous candle signal, I would wait for candle stick confirmation. And its low on fibonacci , so good scalping.
December 18, 2009 at 22:19
bra tack, svensk?
I decided against it, i made alot of pips today already and i figured it would be a bad idea to let greed get me.
December 22, 2009 at 10:34
Född i Goteborg, lämnade för 24 år, sedan när en var ännu en pojke. nu hård att meddela på svenska. But miss the swedish meatballs..etc
December 18, 2009 at 18:30
BTW, I want to say thank you to every one that gave the advise on patients. It has taken me a while to understand that. I think my problem was if the price is at say 1.4300 and we want to short at resistance of say 1.4450, I wanted those pips that were in between, that’s 150 pips (greedy). I think what I was missing is that it’s all about probability, in as down trend there is more probability of it coming back down from resistance than going up to resistance. That’s where patients comes in and “SITTING ON MY HANDS”. You would think I would have figured that out faster but better late than never. Anyway thank you all for your posts on this subject this week. Thank you Mark for everything:)
December 18, 2009 at 18:53
Hi Matt
You know what — over confidence can make you bankcrupt. The market will quickly cut you down to size.
Enjoy– next week for a day or so we will knock ourselves out again. We will have to be light foot — I don’t want to get burned before xmas.
Adios everyone
December 18, 2009 at 19:37
Matt,
Glad to hear from you; I was wondering where you were early today.
I had to do just what you are talking about. I had to slow myself down and be patient because that’s how I lost my real money the last time: impatience and greedy and trigger happy (a cowgirl by nature) and always wanting to be in a trade whether good or bad. Now, thanks to Mark and this site, I am learning to live to trade another day because I am tired of the 9 to 5 and want to learn something new so that I can spend more quality time with my family.
December 18, 2009 at 19:47
we are like soldiers on a battlefield. the first rule is protect yourself! the second is execute according to plan. the 3rd, be a marine adapt and improvise as needed!
good trading to all!
alvin, out