12-18-09
5:14a GMT – Before today’s signal I want to say something quick about patience. As you all probably know I talk about NOT trading about as much as I talk about trading. About waiting for a good pullback to buy/sell on, about waiting for confirmation, and about not minding if I miss a trade because there will always be another one. It’s one of the hardest things to learn in becoming a trader but I think the most important. I’m going to write a full article on it this weekend but until then please 30 seconds and read this post by James in the forum on Patience and Trading here. Feel free to share your own thoughts and stories (reply to the forum please) so we can all grow as a community.
On to the signal! Markets will probably be thin today due to it being Friday and so close to the holidays. We’ve definitely seen the end-of-year increase in volatility that many of us were expecting, and Friday’s can make it even worse. As always use stops and good money management. No entry on yesterday’s sell signal as the price dropped like a rock and never looked back. Mind the news event at 9a GMT – details on the forex calendar.
Daily Outlook: Short-term trend is obviously still bearish, and we have a short-term resistance in place at 1.4420 that should provide a good guide as to the direction of the pair on the day. 1.4420 is the 38.2% retracement of Wednesday’s high and Thursday’s low and has been twice tested (7:00 and 14:00 yesterday).
Trading Idea: Below 1.4425 I am bearish. For the day I will look for a bearish confirmation signal (candlestick, failure, etc.) to enter on with short targets at 1.4390, 1.4355 1.4320 and 1.4290. If 1.4425 is broken to the upside look for a re-challenge of 1.4500.
(click to enlarge)
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December 18, 2009 at 06:05
Hi Mark
Yesterday’s Candlestick Alert
M30 Doji at 17:00 not picked up it yielded 70 odd pips
December 18, 2009 at 06:26
top wick too short to be a proper doji, body too big to be a gravestone doji, top wick too long to be a hammer.
It’s more of an extinction candle (long wick that is the day’s low).
December 18, 2009 at 06:09
Should below 1.4225 be 1.4425?
December 18, 2009 at 06:27
yes, thanks!
December 18, 2009 at 06:44
Hello, what do you think of this 4 hour candle? about to close on my chart.
December 18, 2009 at 06:45
Joao, can you upload your chart to the forum:
http://piphut.com/forum/ ?
.. and what do you think of the candle :)?
December 18, 2009 at 06:47
Well it’s 12:40 AM in my neck of the woods and (Kansas City)I’m getting ready to go to sleep. I wish all of you a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, as well as sucessful trading over the holiday’s! As for me, I will be taking a break until the beginning of January, (I’m taking my family to Disney World, Universal Studios & Islands of the Caribbean theme parks for Christmas and New Years.)Thanks for the continual education and I’ll see you next year.
December 18, 2009 at 06:49
Sounds like a nice tour of the theme parks! Have fun and see you in 2010 :).
December 18, 2009 at 06:56
Thank you! I am not usually much for blogging but I want to tell you that I have been following you for awhile. I really like and respect your trading style and philosophy. It is definitely one of the styles that I want to learn and use as part of my trading strategies. Also, I will try to make more of an effort to contribute to your “trading community” when I return.
December 18, 2009 at 07:06
Sorry Mark I’m having trouble uploading to the forum and I’m very sleepy too heh. Anyway I was waiting for 1.4440 or thereabouts for a nice short signal but this H4 candle at the 23.6 ret looks good. anyway, im going to bed and passing this trade, there’s more next week. here’s the chart though http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20091218-yv5c-194kb
Good trades!
December 18, 2009 at 07:49
i’m looking for a conformation to go short. Merry xmas and happy new year to all on holidays next week, thanks
December 18, 2009 at 08:05
Hey guys! Look at GBP/USD… took 100 pips in 45 minutes!! Volatility is sure very high today
December 18, 2009 at 08:09
EUR/GBP took a dive! I don’t know what happened with the pound… maybe a huge seller
December 18, 2009 at 08:10
buyer i mean
December 18, 2009 at 08:20
By Nicholas Hastings
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)–The dollar is back, in more ways than one.
At this rate, the U.S. currency should resume the rally in 2010 that came to such an abrupt halt in 2009.
The following chart shows how the dollar’s rise in 2008 stalled in 2009
http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/3191
After months of dithering, investors appear to have finally made up their minds: The U.S. is leading other major economies out of the recession and U.S. interest rates are now headed higher.
At the same time, the risk of any further disruption to global financial markets is still likely to play into the dollar’s hands, especially given the rising concern over the banks and bond markets in the euro zone.
This final shift in investor sentiment in favor of the dollar emerged this week as the U.S. Federal Reserve not only acknowledged the recent steady improvement in U.S. economic data but confirmed that it is now ready to start unraveling the ultra-loose policies that it put in place to fight the credit crisis.
The Fed’s statement, released after its latest open market committee meeting Wednesday, contained few surprises, but it was just what skittish investors were looking for–reassurances that the recession is now essentially over and that the Fed won’t be taking any chances with either the recovery or with inflation.
Although the Fed has said it will start unwinding excess liquidity in February next year, the central bank isn’t expected to actually start hiking its record low interest rates that are now between 0% and 0.25% until well into the second half of the year.
The currency strategy team at Commerzbank AG summed up the market’s response to all this.
“The Fed’s old policy rules still apply,” it said. “All the unusual measures don’t mean that the Fed has lost direction.”
This doesn’t mean that hiccups won’t still arise along the way. Economic data and rate expectations are now firmly in the driving seat, ensuring that the dollar will still remain vulnerable to disappointments in future U.S. data.
However, instead of being the currency that investors buy only when things are going wrong elsewhere, the dollar is now more likely to be the currency that investors sell only when they have to.
As 2009 has drawn to an end, both the debt rescheduling by Dubai World and the downgrade of Greek sovereign paper have provided a reminder that the ripple effect of the credit crunch isn’t over. In fact, further shocks are still likely as credit conditions in some parts of the world remain too tight and the borrowing needs of some governments remain too high.
For the dollar, this could all just be good news.
As we have seen in recent months, when market sentiment was being driven largely by risk appetite, the dollar was more often than not the place investors headed as they sought refuge from the latest financial storm.
Given that the yen, the other safe haven of 2009, appears to have now lost most of its attraction, the dollar could benefit from risk aversion even more in 2010.
Overnight, the dollar edged up to marginal fresh intermonth highs against the majors before surrendering ground in Asian trade Friday.
Reports of a coup in Pakistan, since denied, sent investors rushing into the safe-haven currencies with the Swiss franc strengthening to its best level against the euro since the Swiss National Bank instigated its intervention policy to weaken the franc March 12.
The euro tumbled to CHF1.4910 before reversing to CHF 1.50 after the coup rumors were denied by the Pakistani president’s spokesman.
The euro currently fetches CHF1.4987, down from CHF 1.5014, and $1.4385, up from $1.4336 in late U.S. trade Thursday, according to EBS.
The pound is worth $1.6193, up from $1.6156, while the greenback fetches Y89.87, down from Y89.95 is late trade Thursday.
Bloomberg TNI FRX POV
Reuters USD/DJ
December 18, 2009 at 08:30
Whats cooking PIPSTARS?, I felt there is a need for a bullish correction thats why I bought E/U at 1.4357 targeting 1.4400 zones, if broken, I’ll look for a target around 1.4430,50 or 1.4500 zones respectively and then reset a short trades on candlestick confirmation. Hope I didn’t take a bad decision. Happy trading ya’ll.
December 18, 2009 at 08:30
Resistance at .4410,.4450,.4525…and support at .4350,.4300,.4270
December 18, 2009 at 08:56
im wait the news and 1.4425 is broken, “long ” to 1.4500
December 18, 2009 at 09:02
if 1.4500 is broken, resetting long again to 1.4600
December 18, 2009 at 09:16
Kinda hard for E/U to get past 1.4400. I also love to trade U/CAD because it’s technically obedient and fundamentally responsive.
December 18, 2009 at 09:32
Hi all, i have trading for almost a year now. This is the best forum i have ever seen. I respect nigerians in this forum. We can move forward. Keep it up. Naija till i die.
December 18, 2009 at 10:04
Hey people, i’m very surprised for the $ run. But its crazy to see the KBW Index goes to 4.11 lows to 41,10. Is that normal ?!
I thought when $ get more power the index will increase.
Any Idea ?!
December 18, 2009 at 10:16
positive eur news, still short?
December 18, 2009 at 10:28
Hi Markus yes I’m still short
December 18, 2009 at 10:22
after good news i try long euro usd
December 18, 2009 at 10:26
European Union : Merchandise Trade
Released on 12/18/2009 10:00:00 GMT For Oct, 2009
Prior Consensus Actual
Level E6.8 B E5.8 B E6.3 B
Imports-M/M -2.2
Imports-Y/Y -24.0
Exports-M/M -0.2
Exports-Y/Y -17.0
Highlights
The merchandise trade balance posted a larger than expected E6.3B surplus in October following a smaller revised E4.3B worth of black ink in September. The unadjusted surplus was E8.8B, boosting the cumulative year-to-date surplus to E17.4B.
However, disappointingly the start of quarter improvement reflected fresh contractions in both sides of the balance sheet. Hence, total exports fell 0.2 percent on the month while imports were down a much steeper 2.2 percent. On the year, exports declined 17.0 percent and imports dropped 24.0 percent.
Still, on a more promising note exports were 1.5 percent up on their third quarter average while imports were down 0.7 percent. Subject to price developments, this bodes well for a positive contribution from net foreign trade to real GDP growth this quarter.
Exporters seem cautiously confident about prospects for the rest of the fourth quarter but, even if the exchange rate behaves itself, there is still considerable uncertainty about the outlook for global demand in 2010. Even so, unless oil prices surge again next year, the trade balance should at least remain in the black.
December 18, 2009 at 10:32
Someone said that acb is selling eurusd around 1.44
makes me feel better of shorting after the hanging man(1h)
December 18, 2009 at 10:34
I am still an the bearish same as I posted yesterday and Mark posted today. Just got a candle stick 1H confirmation. And the EMU report was not that positive.
December 18, 2009 at 10:45
my question goes to kay what timeframe do you use for confirmation and entry.I just want to get in now.Is it safe to get in now. Mark,i need your input on this also.price on 1hr chart 1.4387,30min chart/timeframe 1.4387, 4hr 1.4388
December 18, 2009 at 17:09
Hakeem, I use candlesticks.
http://piphut.com/forex-tools/candlestick-alerts/
Generally 30m and 1h, sometimes 4h
December 18, 2009 at 10:46
I entered long E/U at 1.4357 and closed out at 1.4397. still watching the moves, I may buy again at pullback or sell the trend. 15mins and 30mins chart tells me that we may see some pullback down to 4350/30 areas respectively but the hourlies crying long. I hope to buy if it gets down and sell on confirmation. Happy trading
December 18, 2009 at 10:57
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=94&mode=view
December 18, 2009 at 11:11
1041 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD’s medium-term trend has turned bearish, says BNP Paribas, and it now favors selling any rebound in the spot. The break below 1.4445 was the trigger that suggests the expected downtrend in 2010 is already underway, and the bank has a target in the 1.4010 area. EUR/USD now at 1.4392. (GST)
December 18, 2009 at 11:13
1037 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD has managed a small bounce amid oversold momentum signals, notes Barclays Capital. However the bank says there is no evidence of a sustainable recovery and with a profit-taking theme spreading to other markets BarCap is concerned that the downtrend is not over. While capped below 1.4540 BarCap sees downside risks into year-end toward the 200-day MA at 1.4170 or even 1.37. EUR/USD now at 1.4400. (GST)
December 18, 2009 at 11:13
hakeem, its not safe right now, moreover, its against the trend although momentum indicators making me believe we are gonna witness a bullish intraday movements. have patience man and trade the trend. i did it cuz its one of the few risk i can bear.
December 18, 2009 at 11:15
Ola Tommy & others
Do you guys get the DJ news? Would you like me keep on posting?
December 18, 2009 at 11:30
Hendrick, yes sir keep up with the big bank news,,, hmmmm got any news feed that gives the high of the day?
December 18, 2009 at 12:21
keep it up!
Hows your roof job going on, got it done or need some help.
December 18, 2009 at 12:48
Muito obrigado for offering assistance. Yes I got the job done in between the trading — luckily my wife was not home cos I took the whole day to finish what I was doing. We live in a old (1920) Victorian house buildt of clay brick and it requires maintenance all the time — I suspect it’s a female as it likes men around it :)
December 18, 2009 at 11:53
…@Hendrick…I am sorry that I’ve not told you that you are doing a great job man keep posting–.
December 18, 2009 at 12:15
well that turned out real nicely, even covered my loss from eurchf last night now:)
December 18, 2009 at 12:16
Hello Hendrik and everyone!
after 1H reverse hangingman candle signal nice drop making 100 pips allready!
December 18, 2009 at 12:22
sorry for the bad idea on the chf Markus…likely my lost was small hope u too.
December 18, 2009 at 12:28
Oh! it was in no way your fault ;) I thought it looked like a good idea. And thats why i entered it, thanx for charing it.
Things change and theres never any sure bets in forex… or anywere else for that matter.
December 18, 2009 at 12:32
Sorry guys I was watching criket between UK & RSA but this is fresh:
1230 GMT [Dow Jones] The dollar is being lifted by reports Iranian troops have crossed into Iraq and raised their flag over the Fakka oil field. The headlines are coming out of Dubai-based Al-Arabiya TV, say traders. EUR/USD falls to the session low of 1.4350. (GST)
December 18, 2009 at 12:34
For all the shorties.
1205 GMT [Dow Jones] The Euro is on the slide again as early New Yorkers come in printing session lows pretty much across the board. EUR/CHF drops to 1.4970, EUR/USD is off some 30 ticks to 1.4368 and EUR/JPY is approaching 129.50. (GST)
December 18, 2009 at 12:34
Hello Everyone….
@kay..which broker do you guys use generally in Nigeria? (your preferred broker)?
December 18, 2009 at 12:36
The news must stop now I want to get back at the cricket
1234 GMT [Dow Jones] Crude futures extend gains after Platts quotes Dubai-based Al-Arabiya television saying Iranian troops had crossed into Iraq and raised a flag over the Fakka oil field on the Iraqi side of the border. Reuters later said Iranian troops briefly entered Iraqi territory Thursday. “That’s the reason it picked up over the last twenty minutes,” says a broker. But many traders are cautious, waiting for further confirmation from other news agencies or government officials. ICE February Brent +91c at $74.28/bbl, Nymex January light, sweet +$1.19 at $73.84/bbl. (SUL)
December 18, 2009 at 12:44
KAY AM IN LAGOS ARE YOU A LAGOSIAN?
December 18, 2009 at 12:58
how do we see
December 18, 2009 at 13:09
Good Morning every one. Hope all is well at Piphut.
December 18, 2009 at 13:10
This Arian business reminds me of a story by Dr David Paul a known trader and lecturer: he was very satisfied with his $6000 profit on crude and he went to make himself a cup of tea, even put an extra bag in just to celebrate. He returned just to find his profit being wiped out because “some sod blew up a pipeline”.
December 18, 2009 at 13:15
didnt he lock in profit before celibrating?
December 18, 2009 at 13:34
Nope
That’s why I say you’ll always be a student !! — never ever a master ………
December 18, 2009 at 13:39
aaah! got it
December 18, 2009 at 13:12
@…Hakeem–Nope man am in coal city(Enugu).
@…Syed–We patronize alpari.co.uk and marketiva.com
the two are best for me.
December 18, 2009 at 13:36
i have a live account with marketiva infact am chatting with the support staff right now their response to cliets querries is faster than the speed of light the are wonderful.
MT4 is not that bad but on thing i dont like about them is that they delay the closing of trade positions if you try to close a trade usually when volatility is high.What and what do you use for trend detection, CONTINUATION AND REVERSAL WHAT I HAVE NOTICED ABOUT TRADING IS THAT SOMETIME YOU MAY BE WRONG IN YOUR INTERPRETATION OF BAR OR CANDLESTICKS.DO YOU BELIEVE IN EA?
December 18, 2009 at 14:02
I would not recommend using commercially available EAs to anyone..those things are good for nothing.
Practice + Patience + Money Management = Success
December 18, 2009 at 13:41
Good Morning, Everyone!
I hope that you all have performed this morning as Pipstars.
December 18, 2009 at 13:54
…….. and behaved ..
December 18, 2009 at 14:15
Hendrik are you still short?
December 18, 2009 at 15:08
No Joe —- closed at 4326
December 18, 2009 at 14:00
Anyone for short?…it broke the bottom rising trend…2hrs ago.I hope its for real.
December 18, 2009 at 14:11
I hope you got your snow shoes on !!! Just closed my short.
December 18, 2009 at 15:43
Did u see that…still the same pattern
December 18, 2009 at 14:11
Hmm.. Unless you took a short around 1.4397(where I took my first +40pips for the day) – 1.4400 or a bit lower, you have a good reason to smile. Bulls are gonna charge soon.
December 18, 2009 at 14:36
I think the header and shoulder pattern is complete for the Aussies( Daily Chart)
December 18, 2009 at 15:13
Here is the chart http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=30&p=201#p201
December 18, 2009 at 14:37
kay, whats popping in the coal city?
December 18, 2009 at 15:01
I told ya’ll bulls gonna charge some while ago(2:11 pm), I was able to take another long at 1.4325 and am out now with +25 pips. there may still be chances of upside move if the 12:00 4hr closes well above 1.4330 area, if such is the case, bears may look to resell on confirmation but the day is really piling out. Am done for the week guys I gotto walk.
what a good thing PIPHUT.
I don’t know if we can share contact here but if we can, I look forward to getting a go ahead from the PIPMASTER.
Happy Weekend ya’ll
December 18, 2009 at 15:09
looks like another wedge shaping