12-23-09
4:14a GMT – I don’t know about you all, but I for one am really looking forward to a few extra days of no trading this week! Holidays can be a good thing. We did in fact see a nice drop yesterday to go with my bearish signal – keeping with my conservative holiday gameplan though I did not enter as resistance held at 1.4330 and the pair dropped over 100 pips to the low 1.4200 range. Housing data came in better than expected for the US with home sales continuing to improve, but remember that this is also because many first time home buyers in the US rushed to purchase a house last quarter to take advantage of the expiring home tax credit. That doesn’t really tell us the interest rate will be raised soon – it tells us the government might stop printing money at some point.
Daily Outlook: Bearish downtrend remains strong. Markets will be at their thinnest during the US trading session. Unless you are very confident in your trading ability I recommend taking the day off and catching some early holiday spirit! For those of you feeling aggressive… I’m bearish under 1.4330 in the short-term. We have a sinking trendline that has held for the week now and until we see a good rise in their pair the bearish outlook will continue.
Trading Idea: Looking for bearish signals around 1.4330 with targets at 1.4300, 1.4275, 1.4245 and 1.4220.
(click to enlarge)
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December 23, 2009 at 06:06
halo
so can u tell me how 2 use ur signal
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Trading Idea: Looking for bearish signals around 1.4330 with targets at 1.4300, 1.4275, 1.4245 and 1.4220.
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so we just use po(pending order) around 14330 n set tp like the trading idea set n wait n see
please tell me becouse i’m newbie at forex
December 23, 2009 at 07:10
It’s better to wait until the price reaches the specified zone and then look for a confirmation to enter (you can look for candlestick confirmations here http://piphut.com/forex-tools/candlestick-alerts/
December 23, 2009 at 10:30
Merry Christmas Everyone!
Rookie do first some reading on the left side there is some good information on the section learn forex, then start with a demo account. After some time when you are really making more than losing start with actual accounts. And remember money management.
And the market is so thin and volative right now that you should avoid using pending orders. All the best!
December 23, 2009 at 06:31
I think I’ll take your advice Mark and give it up for the hols, so Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to you and all the PipHutters.
December 23, 2009 at 06:39
Have a Merry Christmas everyone I’m taken the kiddies up to the Snow………
December 23, 2009 at 07:02
Merry Xmas everybody.
December 23, 2009 at 07:17
Hi Mark (El Presidente !)
I wish you and your family (including your mother in law) a joyous Xmas day and may we all strive to live the goodwill of Xmas to the full.
And to the rest you fellas — I extend the same wishes.
December 23, 2009 at 07:21
Hi Mark
What Christmas presents do you want —– more piphutters, more questions or good trading year?
Have a Merry Christmas!
December 23, 2009 at 07:53
I gave up currency trading after I started to average $5,000 sales selling knock off NFL jerseys on amazon/ebay. risk/reward is so much easier to manage when u know it will just sell.
December 23, 2009 at 08:13
dear mark,
i’m taking this opportunity to wish you & your family Merry Christmas.
..and to all dear Piphutters Merry X’mas and Happy New Year..
..although i don’t celebrate X’mas but Piphuts bring me the joy and warmth of X’mas..
December 23, 2009 at 08:23
That very kind of you and may you too experience the goodwill :)
December 23, 2009 at 19:14
Warmth counts and you have a wonderful holiday and may something special happen for you this holiday!!!
December 23, 2009 at 08:39
can some one tell me how 2 use candle stick alert
December 23, 2009 at 09:07
Hi Herry
First you must be able to identify the candlesticks go to
http://piphut.com/learn-forex/forex-candlestick-guide/
December 23, 2009 at 09:01
Hi Mark and all Fellow traders,
Wishing all of you a Merry Christmas and a Happy and Prosperous NEW YEAR, may it prove to be one filled with pips everyday.
December 23, 2009 at 09:43
I would like to wish every pip hutstar a Merry Xmass and a Happy New year in advance.
Enjoy your holiday; don’t eat and drink too much – eat healthily; and overall, write a plan for achieving your forex goal for the year 2010.
Happy Holiday!!
December 23, 2009 at 10:00
Hello Everyone
Wishing the president and all piphutters a Merry Christmas and a fabulous New Year!!!
Hope 2010 will be a good trading year for us…
December 23, 2009 at 10:38
i have lookd mark signals for few months know but i havent been active in commets and forum, but thanx everyone and merry crismas and happy new year ( sorry for my english)
December 23, 2009 at 11:30
Merry Christmas Mark and every one else here :) I wish you all the best and looking forward for another sucseful year of trading ;) NOU LEST PARTY :D heheheh
December 23, 2009 at 13:25
Is there any US home sales news today as well?
December 23, 2009 at 13:35
Yes in 1.5hour’s time
http://piphut.com/forex-tools/forex-calendar/
December 23, 2009 at 13:33
Mark, regarding your comment about home sales. Is it still valid even when the news from yesterday was for existing home sales, and today’s will be new home sales? thank you
December 23, 2009 at 13:45
1258 GMT [Dow Jones] The dollar is slightly lower vs most of its major competitors on profit taking in thin trading Wed morning against a backdrop of persistent optimism about the US recovery and expectations the greenback will remain firm through year end.
December 23, 2009 at 14:40
Thanks for all the holiday wishes, and happy holidays to everyone back! :)
December 23, 2009 at 14:47
Thank you Mark wish you an amazing vacation you deserve it after all the effort and the hard working you do.
December 23, 2009 at 15:17
Merry Xmas Mark…what Xmas gift wud I hv gotten than d pips I ve gotten thru ur innovation.great work…cant wait 4 2010
December 23, 2009 at 15:27
O’taba Merry x mass
December 23, 2009 at 15:51
Merry xmas Carlos…
December 23, 2009 at 19:17
Thanks, Mark!!! Make sure you tell your family thanks for allowing you to spend time with us.
December 23, 2009 at 15:29
Happy xmas and wishing Mark and everyone a prosperous pipful new year (2010)!!
December 23, 2009 at 15:31
(In “=DATA SNAP: US New-Home Sales Collapse In November” at 10 a.m., the month that ended with a 7.2-month supply of homes was misidentified in the tenth paragraph. A corrected version follows.)
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New Home Sales Nov Oct ! Consensus: !
Overall Sales: 355K 400Kr ! 425K !
Percentage Change: -11.3% +1.8%r ! Actual: !
Months’ Supply: 7.9 7.2r ! 355K !
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By Jeff Bater
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–New-home sales plunged to their lowest in seven months during November, a bigger-than-expected drop that might have been caused by uncertainty over a government tax incentive.
Sales of single-family homes decreased 11.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 355,000, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.
The level was the lowest since 345,000 in April. The plunge wiped out much of the gain made in the new-home market since the January bottom.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires estimated a 1.2% drop to a 425,000 annual rate for November.
New-home sales, unlike sales of existing homes, are recorded with the signing of a sales contract and not the closing. A big tax credit for first time buyers was due to expire at the end of November and caused concern in the housing sector. It was extended in November by Congress to next spring.
Another reason for the big drop in new-home sales could be strong demand for used homes. Data this week showed existing-home sales are up more than 40% since the end of last year, with many purchases made for foreclosed property carrying a discounted price tag.
Wednesday’s report said new-home sales in October rose 1.8% to 400,000, revised from an originally reported 6.2% increase to 430,000.
Year over year, sales were down 9% since November 2008.
The median price for a new home dropped in November – but not by much. It was down 1.9% to $217,400 from $221,600 in November 2008.
Inventories shrank. There were an estimated 235,000 homes for sale at the end of November. That represented a 7.9 months’ supply at the current sales rate. An estimated 240,000 homes were for sale at the end of October, a 7.2 months’ inventory.
Commerce’s report Wednesday showed November new-home sales fell in three of four regions in the U.S.
December 23, 2009 at 15:47
So Hendrik the price is above 1.4330 so i guess we call it off ?
December 23, 2009 at 15:52
Hi Carlos
Things are looking good for a short. What is worrying — the signal is outside the Bollinger. It might still go up.
December 23, 2009 at 16:06
Thanks Hendrik and Merry X-Mass
December 23, 2009 at 17:06
Hey Hendrik,I like to agree with on that…it myt still go up,there is a resistance (R2) at 1.4370,it myt be heading there,there also is the Mid point between R1 and R2 @ 1.4340,it cud reverse there too.
December 23, 2009 at 17:09
yah it is a dilemma i guess i’m going to buy kids some gifts for xmass have a nice day everybody
December 23, 2009 at 15:57
Wishing everyone a merry christmas and a happy new year too :)
December 23, 2009 at 16:13
Happy Holidays to all!
A glance at the COT for the US Dollar shows the commercials were closing their hedges against dollar strength, while speculators are now jumping in long after a rise in price. Looking to the left of the current dollar index Futures, we see we are approaching a possible supply area that may stall the recent dollar strength. Definitely something to keep in mind for you longer term traders.
http://www.fxstreet.com/education/related-markets/lesson-from-the-pros-stocks/2009-12-22.html
December 23, 2009 at 16:22
I think its time for eur/usd rebound. price is above 50 i 100 SMA 1h, next target is 200 SMA, around .4420-.4430. there is also 50 SMA on 4h chart.
but we will see…
im stay out of short today, and tomorrow..
i’ll look for short close to .4440 with candlestick confirmation.
December 23, 2009 at 17:57
Was scalping this morning and ->long from 1.4250 . 100 pips and closed now. when tightening SL at closes to fibo 61.8. Thinking it will turn waiting for confirmation signal or countinuing scalping.
Have my mother in law and rest of the family here, so have to breat in and breat out . Not coming out of the office for rest of the day. Happy holidays. Thinking of buying them tickets to alaska or somewhere nice and FAR. ;)
December 23, 2009 at 18:14
Little info on tomorrow coming news:
United States : Jobless Claims
Released on 12/24/2009 1:30:00 PM For wk12/19, 2009
Prior Consensus Consensus Range 480 K 470 K 450 K to 475 K
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims rose 7,000 in the December 12 week to 480,000. The four-week average, especially important to watch during the calendar and seasonal effects of the holidays, was down 5,250 to the lowest level since September last year at 467,500.
December 23, 2009 at 18:44
Ola Tommy
Your conclusion?
December 24, 2009 at 12:09
anyone think this makes it back to the 38% fibo,,, I guess job data will tell. things are starting to look a little bullish. also wondering if they try to put in a right shoulder,,,dunno
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=108&mode=view
December 24, 2009 at 13:12
Hey David, we were do for a pullback, I am staying out until the news just to be safe. For your long I hope you are right. It would be a good TP :)
December 24, 2009 at 14:57
yep the last 4h candle trumped, bearish below 4410