12-9-09
6:42a GMT – When I wrote in yesterday’s signal that the bears had circled wagons and looked to be in firm control I still thought the bulls would be able to muster a little bit of a fight. Turns out the bulls played the role of punching bag yesterday as bears continued the downward pressure, smashing through 1.4775 support. Price action never got to yesterday’s signal entry, but there were candlesticks worth entering on all major timeframe charts that captured some nice pips. On a side note – this is why I only trade with me trend direction on the day. Anyone jumping at bullish signals more than likely got punished for doing so. If you go with the trend you can get punished, but usually the punishments are not as harsh.
Daily Outlook: With bulls showing little strength and strong daily support broken signals point toward more EURUSD losses and I will look for shorting opportunities. My preferred shorting zone would be 1.4775 (resistance and a 23.6% fibonacci retracement) as that would offer the best reward/risk ratio, but I will also look for shorter-frame shorts on candlestick signals with very tight stops as bears appear to have a firm grip on the markets at the moment.
Trading Idea: Under 1.4775 shorts are preferred with targets 1.4745, 1.4710 and 1.4670. On a clean break of 1.4775 look for a possible re-challenge of 1.4900.
(click to enlarge)
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December 9, 2009 at 08:36
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)–Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF
Spot 0603 GMT 1.4730 88.35 1.6269 1.0257
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Range Bearish Bearish Range
200 day ma 1.4340 93.17 1.6233 1.0607
3rd Resistance 1.4905 89.56 1.6474 1.0381
2nd Resistance 1.4890 89.17 1.6382 1.0338
1st Resistance 1.4800 88.70 1.6316 1.0292
Pivot* 1.4750 88.71 1.6339 1.0236
1st Support 1.4665 88.17 1.6155 1.0220
2nd Support 1.4626 87.80 1.6115 1.0165
3rd Support 1.4509 87.50 1.6023 1.0146
Intraday EUR/USD: The sharp down move extended below 1.4756 to confirm the break of a 9-month bull support line and bring the focus onto the Nov. 3 higher reaction low at 1.4626. This level is also the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target, and suggests a likely area in which to find significant support should the market break below 1.4665. Regaining ground above 1.4800 is required to lift the tone and open the 1.4890/1.4905 resistance area.
Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/JPY: Extends consolidation of the powerful 84.82/90.78 advance following the push below 89.05. Below 88.17 would expose support at 87.93 and 87.80 (50% retracement), although former range highs in the 87.50 area will provide a sterner barrier for this corrective down move. Above 88.70 would build on the struggling recovery off Tuesday’s low at 88.17, opening the 89.17 and 89.56 lower highs.
Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: Suffers a sharp setback to extend the 2-3 week decline into fresh near-term lows below 1.6272. A lower high at 1.6721 has been confirmed, and room exists for a deeper setback towards the 1.6115 area. However, given the underlying weakness in the market, scope for the 1.6000 level cannot be ruled out. Corrective gains are limited, and only a sustained break above 1.6316 would lift the tone.
Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bearish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Forced a break into fresh 1-month highs above 1.0245 before undergoing a corrective setback off 1.0292. However, dips should be limited to the 1.0220 area, and while above there, bull momentum is strong enough to highlight the risk of further upside towards the Nov. 3 lower high at 1.0338.
Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.
Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD
Spot 0643 GMT 0.9075 129.71 1.5108 0.9044
3 Day Trend Bullish Bearish Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Bullish Bearish Bearish Range
200 day ma 0.8846 133.47 1.5178 0.8398
3rd Resistance 0.9153 132.83 1.5146 0.9175
2nd Resistance 0.9114 132.20 1.5130 0.9145
1st Resistance 0.9094 131.50 1.5120 0.9073
Pivot* 0.9051 130.77 1.5107 0.9075
1st Support 0.9020 128.99 1.5096 0.9020
2nd Support 0.8992 128.73 1.5092 0.8967
3rd Support 0.8950 126.93 1.5076 0.8949
Intraday EUR/GBP: The recovery off 0.8992 (50% of the dominant 0.8835/0.9153 advance) is threatening a break through 0.9094 to extend the move up to the 0.9114 lower high. Above there would open the Nov. 30 reaction high at 0.9153. Only failing to break 0.9094 would negate the bullish outlook and bring the focus back onto the 0.8992 low.
Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bullish.
Intraday EUR/JPY: Sharply extends the setback from the Dec. 4 reaction high at 134.54 following the break below 132.39 Tuesday. This move is consolidating the strong advance off 126.93, and bulls will look to be contain dips above the 128.99/128.73 support area in order to protect the 126.93 low. Resistance lies at 131.50/132.20 intraday congestion area.
Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Continues to consolidate off Monday’s near-term high at 1.5130 as the market attempts to validate the break of a 1-year bear resistance line. A support cluster between 1.5092 and 1.5096 is underpinning the market, and while this area holds, room exists for renewed bull pressure towards 1.5120 and the 1.5130 high. Only below 1.5092 would negate the bullish outlook and expose a bull support line at 1.5076.
Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: Extends the weak tone following the break below 0.9054 to bring the focus back onto the Nov. 27 reaction low at 0.8949. Also under threat is the 10-month bull support line at 0.9032 for this week. A head-and-shoulders top can be seen on the daily chart, and a break below the neckline would suggest longer-term potential for the 0.8500 area. Above 0.9073 would provide temporary relief, although only regaining ground above the distance 0.9175 would question the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Range.
December 9, 2009 at 08:39
0825 GMT [Dow Jones] Sterling looks ripe for a slide whatever happens at the pre-budget report due at 1230 GMT. If Chancellor Darling announces big cuts, investors could scurry for the exits in fear of a throttled recovery. If he doesn’t, that will scrape nerves over the UK’s credit rating yet again, according to Forex Focus by Katie Martin. (KJM)
December 9, 2009 at 09:16
Hello all,
I am back shaking off the jet lag. Long on the EURUSD at 1.4722 on the cross up of the 5EMA 10EMA and the up aproach of the RSI….
December 9, 2009 at 09:22
Trip?
Getting close to shorting area now, you gonna stay long?
December 9, 2009 at 09:37
Hi Markus,
Just finished India to California then back again. Not planning on even being near an airport for at least another 6 months.
December 9, 2009 at 09:39
k, well, welcome back
December 9, 2009 at 10:42
Thanks Markus,
In answer to your Q “Getting close to shorting area now, you gonna stay long?” I like to use my own indicators along with Mark’s trading idea. If the stoch, ema’s and RSI are aligning in the same direction I make my entry. In this case, it seems to be working out since I am already locked into profit. :)
December 9, 2009 at 10:49
Yeah, it looks bullish and good so far. Good for you, ill catch the next train
December 9, 2009 at 11:14
Hello Ed,
Welcome back and I hope you enjoyed your trip!!
What timeframe do you use to look at this stoc, ema and RSI and also what settings do you use for each?
December 9, 2009 at 11:24
Hi Lisa,
I use the 1hr chart with the stoch 5,5,3 EMA’s 5,10 and the RSI 14. Nothing fancy, as you can see…
December 9, 2009 at 20:22
Ed,
What is the GMT time on the 1-hr chart for the candlestick you went long @1.4722 using this info? I just want to check to make sure i am following.
December 9, 2009 at 20:54
According to my trade log 07:35. I actually went short on that same price hours later (1.4722). Did not realize that until you asked me to check. What a coincidence!
December 9, 2009 at 10:46
i’m been on the sideline for 2 days looking to go short on a pull back thanx
December 9, 2009 at 11:03
Short at the shooting star(30min) 1.4765
December 9, 2009 at 11:13
Ten Four !
December 9, 2009 at 16:28
You got it!
December 9, 2009 at 11:09
Hi Ed
I trust you are well and in good spirit. Mark’s trading idea sounds good – the President had his thinking cap on.
It touched the 23.6 fib and we have a shooting star on M30. I’m going down!
December 9, 2009 at 11:18
Hey Hendrik,
Just closed my long position for profit. Will wait for my indicators before I decide to go short.
December 9, 2009 at 11:17
The shooting star (30 min) at 1.4765 looks good to me as well. I am hoping it gets to the 1.4670 level.
December 9, 2009 at 11:29
hit 1.4745 already… will wait for more
December 9, 2009 at 11:41
Morning, Well i’m planning to wait till the second target :) hope offcourse to hit 1.4670
December 9, 2009 at 12:09
Im a bit uncertain as where to put my stop. I have it at 1.4790 now, should be enough right?
December 9, 2009 at 12:16
u mean 1.4690?
December 9, 2009 at 12:33
Remember if TP=SL – bring the sl to break even
December 9, 2009 at 12:41
Hendrik,
Would you explain what you mean by TP=SL – bring the sl to break even?
December 9, 2009 at 13:17
Say your sl = 40 pips and you are in profit, then wait until the profit is equal or more than 40 pips — bring the sl to the point of entry.
Some adjust the sl manually all the time as the profit increases. Some put a trailing stop in once they are in profit.
(sorry the “-” was not intended to be a “minus”).
December 9, 2009 at 13:27
I got it.
Thanks.
December 9, 2009 at 12:45
yeah, thanx i moved it down now to break even level
December 9, 2009 at 13:19
did it take you out?
December 9, 2009 at 12:21
i put my stop at 1.4710.. enuff for me already
December 9, 2009 at 12:57
i mean TP…
wooohooo .. price drop to 1.4720 already
December 9, 2009 at 13:04
suddenly the price rose to 1.4740.. ahahah
December 9, 2009 at 12:47
Yep, my 1.4705.. ideal position for SL
December 9, 2009 at 12:52
sry no SL, but of course for profit :)
December 9, 2009 at 13:06
Woot? what happend there? lol
December 9, 2009 at 13:08
ahahaha… got a bit heart attack now. (kidding)
December 9, 2009 at 13:12
yeah, hehe. I was watching a movie, and i heard my SL get hit, Did i miss a newrelase or something
December 9, 2009 at 13:16
Good morning Lady and gentlemen. Can we please pocket a bunch of pips today. Yipeee! Yahoo!!!! Sorry I was just letting off some excitement. We are almost to our spot to start looking for that bearish candle, right?
December 9, 2009 at 13:17
Hehe, yeah, been there once already today. Looking for a new chance to get it now.
Maybe it went up again just to get you in as well, hehe
December 9, 2009 at 13:20
That was a beautiful shooting star at 10:30 I hope someone got in on that.
December 9, 2009 at 14:40
Who re-entered? Mark’s 2nd T being hit
December 9, 2009 at 14:48
Hi Mark, what is the best trading position.i am still demo trading,and have been making profit and loses,i really need to perfect my trading pattern. please your assistance will help me.THANKS
December 9, 2009 at 16:32
Hi Inyiri, not sure what you mean by your question “what is the best trading position”. Today for example, if you read the signal above, I think the best trading positions are shorts.
Is that what you are asking?
Welcome to PipHut!
December 9, 2009 at 14:49
Hey guys, does anyone has a support line at 1.4714? Just curious. It seems to have some problem breaking that support, if it is indeed one.
Thanks.
December 9, 2009 at 15:01
Danny Tan,
I think it is very close to the 1.4710 support and since it’s in that range it may be that same support. Just my thinking – I’m no professional. I hope it breaks this support and goes to the 1.4670 area.
December 9, 2009 at 15:05
Hey Lisa, yeap thanks! It’s my bad :) I forgotten about Mark’s 2nd Target. I guess it’s about the same support level. I hope it mows down 1.4710 and onto 1.4670 too.
December 9, 2009 at 15:10
Btw, is a head and shoulder pattern be in the making in the H1 chart? I’m not sure but could it be considered as one when it’s not at the top of a trend?
December 9, 2009 at 15:05
Me 2 :)
December 9, 2009 at 15:14
Me too Lisa. I am short now.
December 9, 2009 at 15:38
Ed,
Where did you get in at?
December 9, 2009 at 15:52
1.4722 on the cross down 5EMA 10EMA. Now being pushed up. :(
December 9, 2009 at 15:11
Talk about a battle between the bulls and the bears.
December 9, 2009 at 15:15
does anyone think the euro will reach 1.4800 or maybe 1.4900 today?
December 9, 2009 at 15:21
My 2 cents is that it could, if it can’t beat the 1.4710 support soon. What do the others think?
December 9, 2009 at 16:35
It’s a toss. Downward pressure has been great this week and pretty good today, though there is a slight rising trend support on the 30m charts that is supporting the pair. That in itself though looks like a bearish consolidation pattern so I would say odds are slim it is going to 1.4900 but I’ve seen just about everything happen so it would surprise me.
December 9, 2009 at 15:46
Guys what is “BTW”?
December 9, 2009 at 15:53
BTW = by the way
December 9, 2009 at 16:27
Is any one else confused on where this thing is going,or am I missing something. I feel kinda lost.
December 9, 2009 at 16:36
Hi Matt, what has got you confused?
December 9, 2009 at 16:40
Hey Mark how is your day going. Just the consolidation, I can’t seem to find and good signal to get in a short position. I missed the shooting star by about an hour. I am just waiting for a bearish signal or something.
December 9, 2009 at 16:52
Lots of waiting in trading. No need to rush to put your money at risk :). Take a look at some of the other currency pairs and see if there is anything appealing to you there while the EURUSD gives you a better entry. Recently I’ve been trading the AUDUSD quite a bit.
December 9, 2009 at 16:28
No clear signal -i stay and watch -maybe this is better ?!
December 9, 2009 at 16:36
Think its making a wedge, look at 1h chart. Im guessing we are still bearish when its done right?
December 9, 2009 at 16:37
Absolutely. If 1.4775 holds I’m very bearish in the short-term. If it breaks I’ll look for a challenge of 1.4850 resistance area.
December 9, 2009 at 16:42
Hey Markus, are you able to post it on the forum. If not no big deal, Just curious to see what you see.
December 9, 2009 at 16:54
ive never done this before so gimme a minute. I should be able to do it, hehe
December 9, 2009 at 17:03
here u go.
http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=56
December 9, 2009 at 17:06
Cool, I see it now.
December 9, 2009 at 17:18
Moving my SL to second target at 1.4710, lock in pips.
December 9, 2009 at 17:25
Hey Mark, what about ur target profit? 1.4670?
December 9, 2009 at 17:26
It is still my 3rd target, I’ve just moved down my stop to lock in profit on the trade.
December 9, 2009 at 17:27
Alright :) Sweet!
December 9, 2009 at 17:44
is everone pulling out before the news event? @1
December 9, 2009 at 17:49
Which news event are you talking about? The NZ rate decision?
December 9, 2009 at 17:46
or do you think the news event at 1 will help strengthen the dollar
December 9, 2009 at 17:48
Hey Mark are you still in or did that last test of the 1.4710 get you.
December 9, 2009 at 17:49
Barely came out alive on that one :)
December 9, 2009 at 17:51
Cool! I jumped in at the break of my trend line. Yippee!
December 9, 2009 at 17:57
Where did you get in at?
December 9, 2009 at 18:07
1.4710 I based it of the bounce off of the 1.4710 resistance ( on the 5min chart there was a close )
December 9, 2009 at 17:51
results of the 20 year treasury auction is that of any importance
December 9, 2009 at 17:57
I’m going to keep my trade open.
December 9, 2009 at 17:53
excuse me 10 year treasury auction
December 9, 2009 at 17:58
Yikes, we got about 45 cm (18 inches) of snow last night and it is coming down hard again!
December 9, 2009 at 18:03
Wow, were do you live?
December 9, 2009 at 18:05
Wisconsin, US, but it looks like the North Pole at the moment.
December 9, 2009 at 18:09
Hence the Packers Fan! Now I see.
December 9, 2009 at 18:13
Ok, i know were that is. Well, nice to have some snow for the hollidays atleast. Although that sounds like a bit too much for my taste, hehe
December 9, 2009 at 18:19
Saw it on the news. Sorry to hear you are deep under. Hope you do not suffer any damages. Take care!!!
December 9, 2009 at 18:21
I think I can let you have some of our 35 degrees C
December 9, 2009 at 18:15
I could not live where alot of snow is because I can’t drive well on ice and snow. However, I bet it is beautiful.
December 9, 2009 at 18:01
ok i think piphut is in good hands with this trade the market is one big sea saw at times though lol!! But im learning if I win or lose one day i will be on the almighty piphut streak. Number 1 website for forex lovers ahh there she goes down and down
December 9, 2009 at 18:14
Yep! I love this place to:) Perfect place to come make friends and learn.
December 9, 2009 at 18:03
good drop, removing tp order for just a minute to see if we can let some more profit run..
December 9, 2009 at 18:06
what is a good take profit zone for this trade
December 9, 2009 at 18:13
My trade? Read my signal at the top of this post. It lists all the short targets.
December 9, 2009 at 18:09
EURUSD is it closer me or it following comodities like gold and oil closer lately? Im not sure if i am imagining this or not.
December 9, 2009 at 18:16
http://piphut.com/forex-tools/live-charts/
I don’t think it is any more than usual. AUDUSD and NZDUSD historically follow gold the closest.
December 9, 2009 at 18:20
Ok, just thought oil and gold followed pretty closely the EURUSD curve lately. NVM
December 9, 2009 at 18:17
Im not sure if anyone could make any sence of that, Im not reading what im writing sometimes… i meant… is it me or is the comodities and the USD or EUR following eachother more closely lately.
December 9, 2009 at 18:10
i noticed that as well when gold goes down the dollar goes up they both have different values I am imagining
December 9, 2009 at 18:28
xau/USA on a bubble burst I expect it will be down to 1065 level by next week
December 9, 2009 at 18:39
mARK DO YOU HAVE AIM YAHOOMESSENGER OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT OR HOW ABOUT A TWITTER ACCOUNT
December 9, 2009 at 18:49
http://twitter.com/piphut
December 9, 2009 at 19:09
Btw, anyone knows what happend at 1300gmt? Was there some sort of news release?
December 9, 2009 at 22:08
kiwi rate announcement…you should know about all releases to trade forex. FF has a calendar
December 9, 2009 at 22:32
PipHut’s Forex Calendar
http://piphut.com/forex-tools/forex-calendar/
December 9, 2009 at 22:34
Thanks Mark, didnt know you had one here
December 9, 2009 at 22:37
np. As I keep adding tools (which is a good thing) it is getting hard to keep that section easily accessbile. It’s on my list of things to make the tools easier to find :).
December 10, 2009 at 00:34
Oh! i had no idea kiwi had any effect on eur or usd. Maybe i just wasnt clear that i meant… what happend on to the eurusd at that time. seamed to make a sudden very unexpected move there.
December 10, 2009 at 02:25
any major news that effects a dollar major pair as the Kiwi is will move all the dollar pairs, some just morre than others..look at AU for example at the same time, it moved in tandem with Kiwi as it should but EU did not see such a big spike because they are not as connected only through the dollar……….make sense?
December 10, 2009 at 08:18
Not really, hehe.
I can understand all pairs that are nzd will be affected be effected the same way. But i cant understand how nzd effects eurusd.
confused now.
December 10, 2009 at 15:35
because they both are traded against the dollar and they are both major pairs
December 9, 2009 at 19:43
Stopped out at 1.4700 for 75 pips profit.
December 9, 2009 at 20:03
Will u get in again if we come back to the same level?
December 9, 2009 at 21:00
Got 35pips out of todays trades ( 1 long, 1 short ). Thanks Mark!!!
December 9, 2009 at 21:28
Looks like im going short again, Seams to be a short term down trend here. Gonna see if it holds up. Lets see what candles apear.
December 9, 2009 at 21:44
The only market open now is the Australian. I never seem to do well unless the Europe and the US markets are open.
December 9, 2009 at 21:50
mm, good point. I really think it can work out and i got a tight stop on it, wont lose much if it goes bad.
December 9, 2009 at 21:59
Good luck. I missed out on the short op target 1.4670. At least was able to move my SL for a little bit of profit though….
December 9, 2009 at 22:23
And im out, hehe. I see my mistake now… i said i think it loks like a short term down trend from about 1030gmt to 2000. Well its an up trend from 1930gmt yesterday to now, guess it just went back into it.
Oh well, live and learn.
December 9, 2009 at 23:09
Looks like Daily chart might be closing with something looking like a doji could be interesting.
December 10, 2009 at 07:43
How does the Top piphutters thing work? Anyone?
December 10, 2009 at 15:07
Just the number of comments you leave each month. Counts it by the email address you enter when you leave a comment.
December 10, 2009 at 15:08
Also it resets every month, so for example what you are seeing is that Mattd365 has left 80 comments since Dec 1.