12-17-09
Email update: Server upgrade for signals is complete, but it has to be phased in for reasons out of my control so about half of you should have received an email letting you know there was a new signal, and about half of you didn’t receive anything. Almost everyone should get tomorrow’s signal and everything will be working smoothly by this weekend I promise :).
4:40a GMT – If you braved the news the yesterday’s signal yielded you good pips – no matter which trading idea you used (sell at 1.4580-1.4600 or sell on break of rising support) all targets would have been hit for over 100 pips. I did open 1 short on the initial jump to 1.4580 and took profit on first lot but second was stopped out at break even for no profit/loss.
Dollar gained heavily against the Euro yesterday, establishing a new low of the quarter amidst Bernanke’s words that the job situation was stabilizing. Traders see job data as the key factor in determining when the Fed will begin raising interest rates, and coupled with the positive non-farm payroll data from a week ago this makes rate hikes much more likely in the early part of 2010. Does this mean the dollar will continue gaining until next year? Of course not. The market will attempt to find a ‘fair value’ price for the pair. And in that fair value the Euro has the advantage because its interest rate is already higher than the dollar’s.
Daily Outlook: I am bearish below 1.4600 and will look for good areas to short around Fibonacci levels. I expect to see a pattern similar to what we have seen over the past week where we have a long bearish flagpole followed by hours of bullish consolidation. As I mentioned before I am conservative in these thin-markets before the end of the year, so if I miss a trade there will always be another one.
Trading Idea: Shorts preferred below 1.4600, looking first at 61.8% fibonacci retracement around 1.4500. From this level short targets are 1.4455, 1.4420 and 1.4385. If 1.4500 is broken to the upside look for a re-challenge of 1.4600.
(click to enlarge)
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December 17, 2009 at 06:11
Hello PIPSTARS!!!!
December 17, 2009 at 06:39
I’m ready to go again, I won’t have as many coldies tonight so that I stay awake and don’t miss all the action. Although it is very hot & sticky.
December 17, 2009 at 07:01
Missed out yesterday from by far too obvious trade…tied down by pressure from school:(,didnt hit my target when I checked it,bounced back just 10pips before.I closed it when I was stressed up and its morning gone beyond my target.
December 17, 2009 at 09:58
O’toba, i guess you are Nigerian as your name implies. I am also 9ja and live in london. we could hookup for coffee one of these days, lol.
takia
December 17, 2009 at 10:33
O yes bruv…Oloruntoba in full.wink.How is the market going,am new to forex,bt i know mch.great site we ve here.Hmn…coffee?..nice idea.
December 17, 2009 at 13:20
my broda, market is good. been around for 5yrs now. where in london do u live? im a ‘peckhamite’, lol.
December 17, 2009 at 18:14
I stay in Abbeywood…u mean u have trading for 5 years or been in london.Peckham aint bad…all about the quids,lol
December 17, 2009 at 18:36
yes, been trading for 5yrs and been in peckham for 5yrs
December 17, 2009 at 07:27
By Takashi Mochizuki
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
TOKYO (Dow Jones)–The dollar rose to a three-month-high against the euro in Asia Thursday due to concerns over European bond markets and the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee’s slightly hawkish statement overnight.
The euro fell below $1.4400 for the first time since Sep. 8, and dealers said the European unit may fall further if December’s Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index due later in the day beats market forecasts. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect 16.4, a slight deterioration from the index’s previous result of 16.7.
“Many investors are interested in buying the dollar at the moment, and to justify their bets, any reason will do–even reasons they usually dismiss,” said Yuichiro Harada, a senior dealer at Mizuho Corporate Bank.
Investors turned bullish on the dollar after Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said it revised its rating criteria for covered bond programs, and after the FOMC released a post-meeting statement which some investors considered hawkish.
The U.S. rating agency said Wednesday it has placed CreditWatch on EUR1.46 trillion worth of covered bond programs as a result of the revision and signaled these programs may be downgraded in the next few months.
“Ratings on a total of about 53% of our sample would have fallen on average between two and three notches. We aim to resolve the CreditWatch placements within four months,” the agency said.
Covered bonds are a means of raising funds–often used by European banks due to the low cost. A rating cut possibility in bonds means European financial institutions may face difficulty raising funds in the near future, which will spur risk aversion, said Yuji Saito, head of foreign exchange at Societe Generale.
“The S&P report was published late Wednesday, and many Asian investors believe European players will sell the euro in reaction later in the day. Asian players are selling the euro before the Europeans push it much lower,” Saito said.
Meanwhile, the FOMC statement said “the deterioration in the labor market is abating” and “household spending appears to be expanding at a moderate pace.” Long-term yields on U.S. Treasurys rose on this statement, and the dollar gained across the board in turn, Mizuho’s Harada said.
The dollar rose above Y90.00, its highest since Dec. 7. As of 0450 GMT, it was at Y90.22, up from Y89.78 overnight. The euro was at $1.4380 from $1.4531 and at Y129.73 from Y130.45.
The greenback also rose strongly against other Asian currencies. It hit a fresh six-week high against both the South Korean won and the Singaporean dollar. The dollar last traded at KRW1,176, up from KRW1,164 late Wednesday in Seoul, and S$1.4001 from S$1.3967 late Wednesday in New York trade.
December 17, 2009 at 08:49
damn i missed the move from 1,458. hope to get back in again soon. this is a very annoying to be on the outside and just waiting to get back in. but this one just have to pullback to get rid of some of the USD bulls, and then make a move again. I will wait for that to happen before entering unless i see a nice candle.
December 17, 2009 at 09:34
Hi Lehmann
Yesterday I went short at 4570 when it reached the consolidation I contemplated whether or not I should put a trailing stop in, I decided against it. This morning I saw how much money I left on the table …. now I’m not a happy chappy :((( not at all!!
December 17, 2009 at 11:43
what pairs do u trade? im short nzdusd from 72 and looking at going long the EURCHF soon.
December 17, 2009 at 12:11
Lehmann
I trade everything up to a spread of 4. Otherwhise it just get to much. (I’ve got to keep the family happy as well) Lately, as it is summer in South Africa I work outside and every now and then pop in to see whats cooking. For the last few days I consentrated on the Eur.
December 17, 2009 at 09:17
hi all
i am a newbie from perth australia.
Following yesterdays suggested levels to short, i left
my position open overnight and this morning around
11 am perth time covered all shorts (euro,aud and kiwi).
a very handsome christmas present.
tks to you and all others.
December 17, 2009 at 15:21
:)
December 17, 2009 at 10:36
Hi Mark…I think U will be needing a much more high capacity server really soon…Piphut will soon be competing with facebook.lol…loving this site.
December 17, 2009 at 11:04
I’m glad that the community is growing and I just wish more can take part in this wonderful forum .. on the other hand I’m sad for all the friends that do not take part anymore.
What I really like about Piphut is that I do not feel alone anymore….I’ve got friends around the clock:) It’s all about sharing, trying to motivate someone who landed in a pickle & asking and giving advise.
AND I STILL SAY …………. MARK FOR PRESIDENT !!!!!!!!!
December 17, 2009 at 11:13
I agree with you on that…asides the signal piphut is kind of helping in the physocology of trading.u know atimes when u loose, it’s like the whole world/market is against u.
December 17, 2009 at 11:23
Hi Hendrik, which broker do you trade via?
December 17, 2009 at 11:28
Hi Bernadette
Interbank FX an American broker
December 17, 2009 at 12:34
Hi Hendrik,
Very well put. I too feel I have stumbled onto a great group of individuals;if Mark runs he has my vote!
December 17, 2009 at 15:27
Thanks Hendrik.. Piphut is all about the community. And I most definitely will NOT be running for president, but I appreciate your vote nonetheless :)
December 17, 2009 at 16:25
Thanks Hendrik.. Piphut is all about the community. And I most definitely will NOT be running for president, but I appreciate your vote nonetheless :)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Then I declare the following:
Let it be known that Mark is our Senor Presidente!!!!!! viva!!
CAPICE
December 17, 2009 at 10:41
Hey Mark I have a question: when do you plan to post your analyses for other pairs? I’d be very interested to see your signals for GBP/USD. I think it’s a very good pair to trade.
December 17, 2009 at 11:27
I have been trading GBP/USD , on the same time with same stategy than EUR/USD, this pair almost follows the big brother, only the movement is less, I have been using and smaller targets 20 pips. Almost all trades have been a success:)
December 17, 2009 at 14:08
I think moves in GBP/USD are usually bigger, not smaller
December 17, 2009 at 10:59
Its going to the bulls turn really soon,the dollar has been harrassing other currencies.
December 17, 2009 at 11:41
i wouldnt be suprised if it goes down a bit further though
1.43 something like that. Im staying out, no telling what will happen here
December 17, 2009 at 11:13
I love Bernake second time he donated pips for me. Thanks to you to Mark.
Any exceptation for now RSI has been under 30 about 7 hours , going long again. with little SL.
December 17, 2009 at 11:22
Ola Tommy
Old Ben might be without a job soon. I also keep my eyes peeled for a long. Just had a nice short scalp.
December 17, 2009 at 11:33
Buenos Dias , Hendrik Where are you based?
Closed my long allready (SL) now waiting candle stick confirmation for a failure. And keeping my short still open!
December 17, 2009 at 12:19
Tommy — in Porterville, sunny South Africa where I’m suffering on the roof to make it bird & bat proof. My trailing stop on the short was taken out. I’m staying out to see what’s up — Right now I feel to jittery about the market.
December 17, 2009 at 11:48
Woow, E/U dropped like a rock, I hope to drop with it next time it rise but the big question is whether it will rise again. hello fellow 9ja guys, Femi,Nnagozie,O’toba. hope you are all doing good.
December 17, 2009 at 12:04
usdcad is looking ready to be shorted, just out with positiv news for cad as well.
December 17, 2009 at 12:06
but do you dare to go against the USD?
December 17, 2009 at 12:14
well, not yet. But dollar have moved about 200pips already, i doubt it will move much more.
Gonna wait for good signal before i do anything of course. Im not shorting usdcad before i dare to long eurusd.
December 17, 2009 at 13:22
.0750 area looks pivotal, I’ve been scalping it short this morning
December 17, 2009 at 12:14
Hi Everyone,
I have been following PIPHUT for a while and just have to say a BIG Thank You to Mark for his awesome site. I have been trying to learn FOREX for over a year and have to say this site has taught me the most in just a couple of months. I just need to “sit on my hands” more and I believe I am almost there. First live account, 3 weeks, this one, my second, 3 months and counting, mostly thanks to Mark and all of you! Thanks everyone happy pip hunting.
December 17, 2009 at 15:30
No problem, glad that we could help :). Sitting on your hands is probably the toughest part..
December 17, 2009 at 12:52
Good Morning fellow piphutters!!!!
What in the world happened?? Why did the EUR/USD drop by so much? What is the technical explanation? Anyone
December 17, 2009 at 15:32
Technical explanation is along the lines of “the break of major support trend line from the beginning of this year was broken a few weeks back (see top rising trend line on chart above) and then the fundamental explanation is somewhat explained in today’s signal – basically traders expect US to raise interest rates sooner than expected so the fair value of the USD has gone up.
December 17, 2009 at 12:58
Good morning all, Wow, only 9 days till Christmas. It feels like only a year ago since the last Christmas, :) lol :)
December 17, 2009 at 13:01
What are the nominal stoploss for all the calls made by Mark? I only see Entry and TP. Thanks in advance
December 17, 2009 at 13:05
You have to read the Piphut money management article listed above on the righthand side.
December 17, 2009 at 13:07
Senor Tommy are you a breakout trader? If so, there’s one coming for you.
I’ve got a feeling in me water that soon the
December 17, 2009 at 13:08
support of 4190 will be tested.
December 17, 2009 at 13:22
Do you really think it is going down that far? I know anything is possible from looking at yesterday but what makes you think that will happen?
December 17, 2009 at 13:49
Lisa the trend in my opion is strong; it has broken all the significant supports the past couple of days. The next one is 4190. I do not say it will be tested today, but for sure we are heading in that direction.. on two occasions it has tested today’s low of 4327 — it will break sooner than later.
If I’m wrong I’ll try and send you a pip
December 17, 2009 at 13:31
we may have to wait for that Hendrik, with those numbers
December 17, 2009 at 14:45
Lehmann
It’s not so far off. From today’s low it’s only 137 pips away. Only this morning within 10 hours it dropped with 203 pips
December 17, 2009 at 14:48
i know what u mean, but im just waiting for that pullback to at least 1.46. i have no doubt it will go there. im very bullish on the dollar, i just like to see a pullback before entering my shorts.
December 17, 2009 at 14:50
i mean i have no doubt it will go to 14190 but a pullback before that
December 17, 2009 at 15:21
Yes I would also like that, but I would most likely be asleep by then.
December 17, 2009 at 13:17
Mark,
Even though the EUR/USD has dropped considerably, is the plan still to short first at 61.8 Fibo level (1.4500)and then any shorts at Fibo levels below 1.4600?
December 17, 2009 at 15:35
I’m also looking at 1.4450 now but in general, yes.
December 17, 2009 at 15:51
Mark,
May I ask what has made you look at the 1.4450 area for entry on a short?
December 17, 2009 at 16:26
50% fibo from yesterday’s high to today’s fresh low
December 17, 2009 at 13:20
http://piphut.com/forum/download/file.php?id=93&mode=view
pointing towards the 4280 area
December 17, 2009 at 13:26
David WM,
So are you in a short or what confirmation are you waiting for?
December 17, 2009 at 13:42
Just scalping, some longs mostly shorts, theres some good two way price action on the 1m charts this morning, so far.
December 17, 2009 at 13:45
The market is messed up!
shorting under level 1.44 if breaks markably going for going for long. short targets 1.4300, 1.4250 and as far 1.4160
December 17, 2009 at 13:50
United States : Jobless Claims NEW CLAIMS
Released on 12/17/2009 1:30:00 GMT For wk12/12, 2009
Prior 474K Consensus 465K Consensus Range465 to 470K Actual 480 K ,
so even more people without job still in the US
December 17, 2009 at 13:50
gold is also about to hit support
December 17, 2009 at 14:14
Looks like a temporary bottom to begin the bullish consolidation Mark talks about.
December 17, 2009 at 14:22
Think so as well, but i thought it would go down just a little bit more. But im usually wrong so this is probably it, hehe
December 17, 2009 at 14:25
btw, did anyone long on that 30min doji?
December 17, 2009 at 14:31
Did not see the doji. I was looking at some bullish divergence on a 15 minute chart.
December 17, 2009 at 14:36
k, its not the smartest thing to go long now anyways i guess. But i thought i can atleast get a few pips.
December 17, 2009 at 14:42
Well I did worse than that…I went short just above the low incase it broke the lows for another push lower. Had to quickly cover. lol
December 17, 2009 at 14:52
awwww, man! hehe, ive done that so many times in the past, i never short if it have made a great move like -100pips or more nowdays. (try to anyways)
December 17, 2009 at 14:47
Hi Pipstars!
Was extremely late for work today due to last nights’ monitoring of the reaction of markets to the FOMC rates. Looks like the EUR got another huge beating later in the day.
Reading the trading idea from Mark, it seems like we should be sitting on the sidelines today and just “watch ball”. It is still pretty far away from the 1.4500 mark currently.
Anyone thinking of longing to 1.4500? (but somehow i feel this trade should be avoided as it is currently against the overall short-term trend of the downward EURUSD trade).
December 17, 2009 at 14:51
Got some econ reports in 8 minutes…leading indicators and philly fed
December 17, 2009 at 16:08
going long EURCHF 150,22 against 150,oo
just 22 pips and seem 150,07 is defended by central bank.
any opinion?
December 17, 2009 at 16:24
i probably will take a chanse on this one as well, but ill wait untill its a bit lower i think.
December 17, 2009 at 17:04
this is a very good buy. im long also. the central bank have defended this for some time now.
December 17, 2009 at 17:09
your sl is 150 as well?
December 17, 2009 at 17:18
1.50 not 150
December 17, 2009 at 16:29
i bought some now and will add some if it go lower…with the tight stop.
December 17, 2009 at 16:38
Yeah i changed my mind after i postet, i got myself 2 lots now ad on some more if it gets lower and if it looks good.
for interest sake. I would like to know if theres some facts behind your theory, anyone knows anything about this?
December 17, 2009 at 16:43
well, i only noticed that over last few months, every time it touch under 150010 is like turbo activated, things might change but at this level i like the risk reward.
December 17, 2009 at 16:56
ok, im in. lets see, like you say, it looks good from before.
December 17, 2009 at 18:00
I see hammer at down bollinger -im going long
December 17, 2009 at 18:18
what chart? i cant see it. something similar on 1h chart but more like a caveman club, hehe
December 17, 2009 at 18:44
Mark
Candlestick Alert
M30 Doji at 17:00 not picked up
December 17, 2009 at 18:53
Hi Mark,
I see we are getting near the 2hr mark till the US market closes. Do you think we still have a good trade if the price retraces to the 50% fibo?
December 17, 2009 at 19:34
eurchf… u guys still think it will work out? its not exactly a rocket launch, hehe
December 17, 2009 at 19:54
well, i have the stop loss at 150,90….30 pips to loose…
December 17, 2009 at 20:12
are we looking at the same pair? you mean 1.5090?
December 17, 2009 at 20:17
sorry, i meant 14990…got confused.
December 17, 2009 at 20:24
hehe, ok. you made me very confused. anyways, hope it goes up.
December 17, 2009 at 20:38
well, it is a kind of trade u dont know why u go on it!
no technical, no fund. just it happened before and little to loose!
we are back to where we entered now…
December 17, 2009 at 21:01
seams as it hasnt been below 1.5007 since march and still hit it several times. I dont see a reason not to take the trade. especially with a fairly tight sl.
December 18, 2009 at 00:52
woow what a move on eur/jpy – i take 100pips after doji signal – 22:00gmt
now waiting mark’s eur/usd signal
good night to all..
December 17, 2009 at 09:56
Kay, i’m glad to see a fellow 9ja here. ‘wetin dey?’
December 17, 2009 at 10:15
Fellow naijas, I dey hail oh!!
December 17, 2009 at 10:23
Nnagozie where on d planet are u residing?
December 17, 2009 at 10:35
Femi, Owerri, Nigeria