12-29-09
5:29a GMT – The markets struggled to move at all yesterday, with virtually nothing happening throughout the entire trading day! I could sum up the entire day with: “the markets rose a little bit, then fell a little”. No new highs, no new lows. The only technical detail worth mentioning was that on the daily chart yesterday formed a (very small) bearish doji. Because it is so small however, on thin markets and not a new high it is a very unreliable bearish signal at best.
Daily Outlook: After failing to make a new high by breaking 1.4420 and the somewhat bearish daily doji discussed above I am back to leaning bearish, however the technical signals are weak at best and the market is without a clear direction at the moment. It would seem bulls and bears are content with the price at the moment as we go into 2010.
Trading Idea: Look for the pair to continue to consolidate in the 1.4420-1.4350 range, with a break of 1.4420 opening the way to 1.4500 and a break of 1.4350 opening up 1.4320 and 1.4275. Remember, markets are razor thin this time of year and tend to either do nothing or make big jumps, so trade carefully, always use stops and good money management!
(click to enlarge)
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December 29, 2009 at 06:52
i had my orders ready all night for the brake of 1.4420 and 1.4350 and know mark has confirmed my range :) im more bullish my SSD is oversold and i wait for 1.4420 brake and then i think it will be clean run untill 1.4500! mark i thought that maybe you can connect comment to twitter somehow? it would be easyer to watch then.
December 29, 2009 at 07:18
I agree a break of 1.4350 could open up the gates a bit to the upside.
Also, on your suggestion I’ve signed up to have comments posted to twitter. However there are a few downsides: 1) 30m delay for comments to be twittered, 2) twitter limits to 160 something characters so for full comments you still have to check back here, 3) with twitter you can’t see if a comment is in response to another comment.
But the one upside is you can get notified of new comments if you follow twitter a lot.
An alternative would be to follow the RSS feed of the comments: http://piphut.com/comments/feed/
December 29, 2009 at 07:34
thanks mark!
December 30, 2009 at 15:29
I think the major downside is the sheer number of tweets that will be meaningless now is a bit much. I welcome YOUR major updates and come look as needed but to have every comment tweeted IMHO is too much and annoying.
If this is the way it will be from here then I will drop the tweets and just check in now and then.
December 29, 2009 at 08:05
Hi Mark and everyone,
Nice to be back trading :)
A question from me here Mark, if it breaks 1.4420, what confirmation should we wait for to enter the trade to 1.4500?
Thanks a bundle.
December 29, 2009 at 08:08
I’m asking this as I’ve been studying on fibonacci retracements, and I’m still learning how to correctly place the start and end points for the retracements.
I know that any direction the price is going, it’s bound to retrace as it continues it’s way, so for the 1.4420 target, should we wait for it to break 1.4420, retrace back, then wait for a hammer to enter the trade?
Thanks!
December 29, 2009 at 08:12
There are 3 basic strategies one can follow on a break trade: 1) simply put in an entry X pips above the support. So for example 15 pips above resistance at 1.4435. 2) Get a pullback. So once the resistance is broken we have essentially confirmed the uptrend and will now look to buy on dips to support. 3) wait for the pair to consolidate above resistance and hold the gains, then go long.
Strategy #1 gives you the worst entry price but guarantees you’ll get in the trade. Strategy #2 gives you the best entry price but if there is no retrace, you get no trade. Strategy #3 is a cross between the two. You won’t get the best entry price but you are more likely to get in.
You need to figure out how confident you are in the trade and trade accordingly. Personally I’d clear #1 from the board entirely in these thin markets – anything can and will happen. I will personally look for #2, but if we see a good consolidation pattern after a flagpole I’d enter with a #3 strategy.
December 29, 2009 at 08:42
Alright. I would choose the #2 method as to me, getting confirmation to go in on a confident trade is more important than entering just for the sake of wanting to be in a trade. If it doesn’t pull back, then I’ll just wait for the next trade.
So to go with the #2 strategy, I should wait for the price to retrace back to the previous resistance of 1.4420, see a candlestick confirmation before going long. Correct?
Thanks Mark! :)
December 29, 2009 at 15:03
Danny, it depends (lots of “depends in forex”!) again on how aggressive you want to be and how far above 1.4420 the initial break takes us. If it just barely breaks it then retraces to 1.4420 that might not be far enough.
December 29, 2009 at 09:31
Good morning!
sleeped little later today and missed the rapid break of resistance at 1.442 . There already a hammer bearish hammer at 3OM 8.30 . Shorting with target at the new possible support at 1.442.
December 29, 2009 at 09:45
got just 17 pips , the doji 30M just confirmed the support. now entry long
December 29, 2009 at 09:42
Mark what time frame did use in drawing resistance 1.4420-1.4435
December 29, 2009 at 15:04
1h though you can see it on other timeframes as well
December 29, 2009 at 10:26
By Andrea Tryphonides
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)–European stocks rose Tuesday, hitting fresh highs for 2009 as sentiment remained bullish ahead of the New Year, although activity was sluggish in most asset classes, with volumes low all round.
The focus was firmly on the approach of 2010 as equities jumped higher after the Christmas break.
………….. Meanwhile, in the European foreign exchanges Tuesday, the euro was firmer. Indeed, its slide against the dollar in recent weeks may have gone too far, said Brown Brothers Harriman in a note, and a correction higher is looking increasingly likely.
December 29, 2009 at 11:57
Hi Mark
I would like to thank you for yesterday’s sound tip of journalling. I will most definitely follow it. I’ve made a hard copy (in this instance) of the daily chart, wrote down all the pro’s and cons. I think it will be better for me in days to come to compare the copy with the screen.
December 29, 2009 at 15:06
that sounds great hendrik. Let us know how your journalling goes. Or, if you are feeling voyeuristic feel free to journal in the forums!
December 29, 2009 at 15:18
I’ve read the following from Charles:
“i guess no one read or care to discuss…petty, u can just see how beautiful the 4 trades have developed…probably i am in wrong forum.”
and I asked myself why? Probably we are too scared of critism or what other hutters will think…
December 29, 2009 at 17:32
Probably. I should upload one of my journals…
December 29, 2009 at 19:29
I am not afraid of criticism. I will start a journal on the 1/1/10. I will put my trades and what I was thinking at the time of the trade. I believe that this is a great way to learn and get input from all of you, be it bad or good input. I have a great chance to learn.
December 29, 2009 at 16:33
Good morning all. Positive news for the dollar. Hey I started a journal with note pad on my desk top. I’s neat to go back and see what you were thinking and seeing. You can learn allot from past trades or missed trades.
December 29, 2009 at 17:33
I highly recommend taking a snapshot of the chart you are trading off of too. Charts are the key thing we look at when trading so to see exactly what you were looking at when you made the decision is very, very helpful
December 30, 2009 at 00:30
Thank you Mark for answering my question last night about how you got started. I am starting a journal on the forum and will give snap shots of what I see ( or what I think I might see ) I have laid out some of my guidelines and will start fresh at the start of the year. You have been a great inspiration to me I have been doing allot better since I removed all of the what I call “blinding stuff” ( MA’s and indicators ) off of my charts. I can see more clearly what I am looking at now and my charts make better since. I can not wait to see what 2010 brings us.
December 29, 2009 at 18:13
http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=91 Please could we see this chart, your views are welcomed
December 29, 2009 at 19:01
Short term there is no doubt we are in a bearish correction. If you zoom out even further though we can see the bullish overall picture of the EURUSD, caused by the positive interest rate differential between the two.
Also, if you put fibonacci lines from the high/low on your graph you can see bulls are currently struggling with the 23.6% retracement.
Good chart, thanks!
December 30, 2009 at 10:41
Morning mark,
its a brand new day.Just want you to guide on how to save a chart/picture of past or present trade.Just love to post some of my position on this discussion board also for pros review and advise.
December 30, 2009 at 15:30
Hakeem, this is the signal from yesterday. You can view the latest signal by going to the homepage at http://piphut.com
December 30, 2009 at 15:21
lately I have been getting a tweet for every post here. Has something changed? because to be honest its really annoying. I would prefer to hit F5 to refresh when am looking for any updates
December 30, 2009 at 15:23
major updates from Mark are welcome but posts from everyone else are a bit too much