12-2-09
5:45a GMT – No trade was entered from yesterday as I held off for the news (which had very little immediate impact). Which is fine with me – as many of you know I prefer less trades with a higher win percentage rather than trying to make lots of trades. Many of you yesterday did ignore the news however and entered long at the 05:00a bullish hammer which pierced our support at 1.4980 – a move which would have yielded 100+ pips within just a few hours.
Daily Outlook: 4-hour chart below, zoomed out so we can see the bullish uptrend of the last few months that we find ourselves in. With many speculative traders attempting to short the pair as it approaches its 2009 high I will continue my strategy of looking to buy on dips. I’d prefer the 1.5015 or 1.4980 supports to buy on but the uptrend is strong right now so I will also keep my eyes open for bullish candles around 1.5050 support. There is USD news event (non-farm payroll) at 13:15 GMT so I will stay out of markets around these times. For more details on it visit the forex calendar here.
Trading Idea: From 1.5015 support targets are 1.5045, 1.5080, 1.5110 and 1.5140. Will also look for a solid entry reason around 1.5050 (such as a reversal candlestick from the candlestick alert service here) as well as uptrend is fairly strong right now, but would still prefer a solid dip to buy into.
(click to enlarge)
Quick Links:
Sign up for free forex signals via email here
FAQ on these signals
How to use these forex signals
Forex Income Calculator
Forex Forums
December 2, 2009 at 07:00
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)–Spot gold extended record overnight gains in Asia Wednesday, adding 1.3% in dollar terms on the back of fresh money inflows at the start of the month, and hitting fresh record highs against the euro as well.
December 2, 2009 at 07:01
Do the comments appear on the site as they are received. I am a newbie and am trying to follow what is going on but the times on the comments do not follow on from one another.
December 2, 2009 at 09:08
Les, in general the comments should appear as they are received. But reply to a particular post (like this reply to you which I’m typing) may of course register a later time than another newer post.
December 2, 2009 at 07:20
The trend is definitely still very bullish as it almost didn’t retrace overnight. Got out of my short this morning with only +7 pips hahaha. I’ll wait for dips as per Mark’s idea today
December 2, 2009 at 07:36
I would like to encourage all of you to make use of Mark’s facilities like the forum. Draw your own charts and post it — it’s a learning process!!
http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=27
December 2, 2009 at 07:46
Good morning Hendrik
December 2, 2009 at 11:12
Hi to you too Matt
December 2, 2009 at 07:56
Good Morning Everybody, so we have to wait till 13:15 GMT to see how is the market reacting after NFP Report, and buy EUR/USD Dips at 1.5015?
December 2, 2009 at 07:59
Good morning Carlos, Yep I think that is the plan :)
December 2, 2009 at 08:19
Thanks Matt
December 2, 2009 at 15:28
I wasn’t planning on waiting but we haven’t gotten a dip worth buying on yet!
December 2, 2009 at 09:23
Can we post charts for other pairs?
December 2, 2009 at 09:54
I would like that!!
December 2, 2009 at 11:12
Yes, I think we can in the forum.
December 2, 2009 at 15:28
yes, please do in the forum:
http://piphut.com/forum/
December 2, 2009 at 09:44
Hi all, Evening here, Good day, The plan is to wait for NFP report then look for a long near 15000/15. Thanks Matt ur signals are great
December 2, 2009 at 10:07
Hendrik, where are you writing from? I used to know someone with the same name as you ( it’s very distinctive ) and was wondering if it’s you. I’m in Florida.
December 2, 2009 at 11:11
Florida US?
Me from South Africa
December 2, 2009 at 10:34
Good evening all it’s 9.30pm here in Sydney, Australia.
December 2, 2009 at 11:09
Morning Les – it’s around 11am here in London
December 2, 2009 at 11:34
A greeting session… Good Afternoon :D
December 2, 2009 at 11:45
Good Afternoon Everyone
I am from Durban, South Africa and have been reading your comments for a couple of weeks now and finally registered yesterday.
Looking forward to trading with you guys.
December 2, 2009 at 13:03
Bernadette,
Glad to have you! It has been wonderful working with and learning from Mark.
December 2, 2009 at 12:47
Matt
I had a look at your sclaping EA and it looks good. I would like to test it on a demo. Can you please download the file on the forum. :)
December 2, 2009 at 13:07
Thanks Lisa.
Still have a lot to learn though, but am excited to finally get started.
December 2, 2009 at 13:33
Anyone in it at the moment ?
December 2, 2009 at 15:30
I’m not. No good dips yet to buy on.
December 2, 2009 at 13:35
Does anyone know how the trailing stop works? Does it work for tp and sl separately?
December 2, 2009 at 13:41
Only for stop as far as I know. Look in the help function
December 2, 2009 at 14:25
Hendrik,
What help function? Where do you find this?
December 2, 2009 at 15:10
Sorry for the late response.
I you have a MT$ platform “HELP” is normally at the top of your menu.
OR
Try pressing F1 key
December 2, 2009 at 15:31
Depends on what trading platform you use. Best bet would be to ask your broker.
December 2, 2009 at 13:41
You mean short?
December 2, 2009 at 14:28
Nnagozie,
I think Hendrik was saying that the trailing stop only works for stop losses. I am not sure though.
December 2, 2009 at 14:12
looks like the pair is starting to dip towards 1.5050! Sure hope so ^^ … and a further dip would be much appreciated :D
December 2, 2009 at 14:57
i think the pair will move down..maybe i saw a doji in h1 chart of eu…what do u think?
December 2, 2009 at 14:57
Trend is still very bullish, I’m with Mark aiming for a new 2009 high. I’m personally looking for a dip to around 1.5050 to place a buy. Also want to thank you Mark for all the awesome work with the blog and all the invaluable teachings you pass. Have a nice day.
December 2, 2009 at 15:04
I will buy around 1.5015-1.4980 support
December 2, 2009 at 15:13
I doubt it will go that low today. We might have to wait some time to see it reach those levels. I’m also waiting for a dip at 1.5050 and a candelstick confirmation to buy
December 2, 2009 at 15:25
Remy, go to your hourly chat on 30
Nov you will see good hammer on 1.5000 and the price finally bounced off 1.4980. Mark said the hammer on the 1.5000 support was the candlestick confirmation. I might be wrong in this, does anyone agree with me? Where are you from?
December 2, 2009 at 15:57
It was more likely to hit 1.4980 on Nov 30 since a huge rally had preceded the dip. Also, the market didn’t act as sideways as it does today.
I think it would even be nice to see 1.5050 … So I think I’ll stay out today except if i see a nice opportunity on another pair… Been waiting all day lol.
I’m from Belgium by the way
December 2, 2009 at 16:09
wow! Just as I said seeing 1.5050 would be nice, here it is haha. Now waiting for a bullish sign. I’ll wait for next hour’s candelstick to see how the market reacts
December 2, 2009 at 15:32
Thanks Joao, glad to have you here :)
December 2, 2009 at 15:08
Yeah…the trend is bullish..may be the pair wanted to take a breath for a second…haha i’m still new…just wanna share an idea here…
December 2, 2009 at 15:08
I am hoping to buy in the the 1.4980 to 1.5000 range with bullish confirmation.
December 2, 2009 at 15:33
I like the plan Lisa! The hard part will be the waiting :).
December 2, 2009 at 15:15
1.4980-1.5000 would be great, but I don’t think bears can take it that far now.. We’ll see, would be nice.
December 2, 2009 at 15:16
It does not want to move out of the triangle. I going to have a cold one and see you later!!
December 2, 2009 at 15:33
Down one for me too ;)
December 2, 2009 at 15:40
And me too….
December 2, 2009 at 15:56
me too :p
December 2, 2009 at 17:42
You guys want get me stipsy????
December 2, 2009 at 15:44
Make it 4 then :P
December 2, 2009 at 15:53
yah i know the hard part is waiting and thats what i’m trying to learn, but i hope today it will be 1.4980, or 1.5000 :).
December 2, 2009 at 16:03
I think we will see a bounce on 1.5015-1.4980 support zone
December 2, 2009 at 16:09
Just while we’re waiting for that dip Mark, I’d like to get your take on trading platforms. I’m currently using a broker in the UK named Igindex. They offer a 1 pip spread on EUR/USD ( 2 out of hours ). They have a basic charting package which is included as part of the account, or an advanced package for £30GBP per month ( free if you make 2+ trades in the following calendar month ( not hard !! ) Stop loss minimum is 5 pips. I’ve found this to be a very good setup, however am now starting to think more about the restrictions of the charts, the level of interaction you have with them including programming using apis etc. What’s your take on this Mark in your experience. Is the broker more important to you than the charting package, or vice versa ? Would you suggest spending money on a more advanced charting package possibly from a 3rd party supplier in order to have access to those facilities mention earlier ?
Many thanks
Paul
December 3, 2009 at 21:28
Hey Paul, both the charting package and the broker you use are very important – luckily you can have both! If your broker has the charting platform you like the best then that is great, but if you are looking for a more advanced charting platform and don’t want to bust the bank to do it, my recommendation is to get a demo account from a broker that does have the charting platform you like.
For example, I’m a big fan of MetaTrader4. It does nearly everything I ask of a charting package, good tools, good timeframes (I’d like a 2h and 8h too, but that is OK) and superior customization through EAs and custom indicators. What you can do is just get a free demo account of this platform (lots of brokers offer this, for example at alpari.com) and use that demo account for your charting and use your current broker for placing trades. Voila!
December 2, 2009 at 16:11
im short from 1.5100 -but where is better to put my profit :) can i ask some proffesional like mark -thanks
December 2, 2009 at 16:13
Getting closer, nice
December 2, 2009 at 16:18
“Will also look for a solid entry reason around 1.5050″ can someone explain please this statement from mark recommendation for today
December 2, 2009 at 16:28
I guess Mark just refers to a bullish candlestick confirmation. Right?
December 2, 2009 at 16:32
Carlos,
I am still a newbie and Mark would have to give you a professional answer.
I take this to mean that Mark is really wanting to enter a buy at the 1.4980 – 1.5015 area; however, he will be on the lookout to enter a buy at around 1.5050 if he gets a solid confirmation that the short bearish decline is over and a bullish confirmation has form at or around the 1.5050 area.
December 2, 2009 at 16:27
Hi Carlos, Mark says buy on 1.5015 support zone, patience will pay
December 2, 2009 at 16:29
AAAAhhhh! The suspense is killing me! LOL :)
December 2, 2009 at 16:34
i guess i’ll hold till 1.5015-1.4980 zone thanks Nanagozie, unless mark state otherwise thanks also lisa.
December 2, 2009 at 16:37
Did anyone get in at the 1.5040 -1.5050 area?
December 2, 2009 at 16:42
Hello Lisa, Not me I see it still coming down.
December 2, 2009 at 16:48
Hi lisa,
Didn’t get in, I’m waiting to see how the market’s gonna evolve next hour. I think getting in at 1.5040 was a nice option though but it’s always wiser to wait a little
December 2, 2009 at 16:50
I will wait for this hour and the next hours candlestick to close…
December 2, 2009 at 17:09
this is getting ugly. don’t be a cowboy!
December 2, 2009 at 17:22
Happy I waited to see what happened ^^ 1.5015 is not that far away
December 2, 2009 at 17:47
Patience will pay…approaching 1.5015-1.4980, but I will still wait for price action around those supports.
December 2, 2009 at 17:48
Yes, no entry signals yet.
December 2, 2009 at 17:56
than i will keep my shorts :) thanks
December 2, 2009 at 18:04
Forester,
Keep an eye on your shorts because sometimes “a bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush”
December 2, 2009 at 18:14
Forester, did you lock in some pip$?
December 2, 2009 at 18:01
I’m long at 1.5043 with a close stop in case it dips again
December 2, 2009 at 18:11
Remy, I will still wait and see what 6 GMT and 7 GMT hourly candlestick does. According to one of Marks statement last two Months,” If I miss out, I miss out” I will rather wait..
December 2, 2009 at 18:18
Yeah there’s nothing wrong with missing out… I’m just following my strategy here and if I’m wrong it’ll just take my stop and I’ll re-enter later.
Just stick to your strategy, i don’t wanna influence anybody here. You shouldn’t enter a trade you don’t feel confident about.
December 2, 2009 at 18:39
Remy,
That is the good thing about trading with Mark and Piphut; he encourages us to use our own successful strategy that we feel comfortable with and one that will hopfully produce a long term gain.
December 2, 2009 at 18:29
It’s just hanging out by the 200 ema?
December 2, 2009 at 18:54
Doing teh same thing as its been doing since about 1100 gmt i think. (downs mixed with smaller ups)
December 2, 2009 at 18:54
1h chart .. looks like it will be a hammer :D but you never know till last min …
December 2, 2009 at 19:04
Mark,
I just figured out what was wrong when comparing my charts to the candlestick alert times. You listed the open time which was the open time of the candlestick but my charts showed the closing time of the candlestick which the time was always one time slot behind the one that was listed in the candlestick alerts.
December 2, 2009 at 20:08
Are you sure your platform isn’t just GMT+1? Lots of brokers, for some odd reason, list their chart times in GMT+1.
December 2, 2009 at 20:34
Mark,
I don’t think so because my 30 min’s candlesticks are the same way.
December 2, 2009 at 20:36
your 30m candlesticks are 30 minutes ahead or 1 hour ahead?
December 2, 2009 at 20:40
My 30m candlesticks are only 30 minutes ahead and not 1 hour ahead like on the 1hr chart
December 2, 2009 at 19:34
I think it will drop down to 1.500 levels soon maybe i should of done that short trade at 1.5100 would of been risky but as it turns out would of paid off.
December 2, 2009 at 19:37
Yeh! Rikform, I’m kinda kickin myself in the but for not doing that as well. I think at the time it was just to risky for me. :)
December 2, 2009 at 19:46
I am trying to cut out my trades that go against the long term trend but if i firmly believe the price will drop to a certain level then sometimes i wish i had gone with my gut feeling ,cannot win them all so better to win the safer ones on the way back up i guess :)
December 2, 2009 at 20:36
I’m with you, my win to lose ratio is much better when I go with the trend and buy on bounces. So I have tried to stay away from going against the trend. I will trade a very small lot however if it is a very good signal for a dip.
December 2, 2009 at 19:36
The 18:00 (open) candlestick on the 1h chart looked like a doji to me… i guess it was not since the candlestick alert didn’t pick it up.
December 2, 2009 at 20:45
Remy,
I thought maybe this looked more like a hammer since the body size seemed bigger than for a normal doji. Just my take but I’m not a pro on this.
December 2, 2009 at 21:58
Intraday Highlight:
EURUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.80 as nearly 64% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.41 as 71% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 20.4% higher than yesterday and 50.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.0% lower than yesterday and 30.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.1% weaker than yesterday and 1.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.
hope this is true and it will bounce up … coz wright nou its not going any where lol
December 2, 2009 at 22:08
Jevgenij,
Where do you get this information from?
December 2, 2009 at 22:40
DailyFX
but you need to have an acount with that broker to log in and read all the details .
December 2, 2009 at 22:43
This is basicly COT report exept that this broker post it 2 times every day …
I like it more than normal COT report wich is released every weak at the end of the weak .
December 2, 2009 at 23:30
Jevgenij,
Thanks for the info.
December 2, 2009 at 23:34
NP :)
December 2, 2009 at 22:27
Some resistance here, u guys think its gonna go through it?
December 2, 2009 at 22:28
It’s looking a lot like a bearish consolidation pattern. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a stab at 1.4980 when markets pick back up.
December 2, 2009 at 22:38
Stocks are look like like they could be in for a drop as well i think.
I guess that should drag the eurusd down a bit aswell… if it happens.
December 2, 2009 at 22:46
Sorry to bother you Mark,
I have been trying to figure out how you arrived at your resistance and support levels. I thought that you might have used your pivot point calculator but if so I cannot figure out where you got your input data. I am relatively new at this so I’m trying to learn what to do, how to do it and why.
By the way, this is a great site and I like your trading style and philosophies.
December 2, 2009 at 22:56
Dawvee,
Read question #7 of my Forex Signals FAQ here
Welcome to PipHut!
December 2, 2009 at 23:10
That was simple enough. Thanks
Also, I have been designing a spreadsheet to help analyze the EUR/USD hourly data for the past 3 months. I’m still working on it but I have already noticed a few trends. For example, most of the time if the market is down on Thursday, it goes up on Friday and viceversa. Have you noticed similar trends regarding days, trading sessions or etc?
December 2, 2009 at 23:18
There are some trends based on time that I trade (not related to the free signal here on PipHut) but that is not one of them. In my experience for a time-based trend like the one you described (if it goes down in one time frame then it will go up in another) a few things have to happen: 1) it has to go down by a minimum number of pips or % – if it doesn’t go down enough the trade is invalid and 2) this is kind of related to the first point but volatility has to be up on the pair. The higher the volatility the more likely we will see the opposite swing in the latter time frame.
My 2 cents :).
December 2, 2009 at 23:33
Once again I think you are exactly right. That is also what I had concluded. Thanks for your time. I’m sure I’ll have plenty of questions in the future.