12-1-09
4:48a GMT – Welcome to December! Before we talk about yesterday’s signals a quick thanks to the Top PipHutter’s of the month. Below are the top 10 community members who contributed to the discussion last month. If you look to the right you can see that the tally has restarted for December, so it is anyone’s game.
Top PipHutters of November!
- HENDRIK (136)
- Ed (125)
- Markus (113)
- ZAR (107)
- Lisa (89)
- Nnagozie (62)
- tom (52)
- Nick (39)
- Jevgenij (36)
- hassan (32)
Remember, you can always contribute to the discussion, even if you feel like an absolute beginner. There is always some question you can answer – even if it is just pointing someone to the FAQ or READ ME articles on PipHut after they ask an easy question! Staying involved is the best way to learn just short of trading. And it is a lot cheaper :).
We had a good month of trading last month, ending with yesterday’s signal where a long was entered at 1.4980. I closed my position after a failure of second target below 1.5050 at 1.5030 for a total of +50 pips.
Daily Outlook: Not much has changed since yesterday’s signal, technically speaking. The pair remains in a bullish up channel since the beginning of the year, making a buy on dips the best trade at the moment. We did have some sideways range movement yesterday, meaning the market is looking for a direction for the pair as we enter the last month of the year. We do have some event risk today with the US ISM report due out around 15:00 GMT. This report does usually move the markets so I will remain out of the markets until at least an hour after the event has passed and will revisit the charts at that point. To read more about the ISM report you can go the Forex Calendar here.
Trading Idea: Event risk aside (read few sentences above) I’m looking to reset longs tomorrow with candlestick confirmation between 1.4980-1.4950 support. Again I will stay out of the markets until at least an hour after the ISM report releases at 15:00 GMT.
(click to enlarge)
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December 1, 2009 at 6:23 am
Thank you Mark! Sounds good to me!
December 1, 2009 at 7:23 am
Mark, is that a hammer on the 1hour chart???
And why doesnt the candlestick alert pick it up??
December 1, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Mark,
I wanted to know as well if the candlestick alerts goes out automatic or do I have to set it up? On the first day you came out with the candlestick alerts, I did receive an email alert.
December 1, 2009 at 3:03 pm
Lisa, the candlestick alerts have never had the ability to send email alerts. Not sure what you received..
December 1, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Mark,
I apologize but I thought I received approx. (3-4) email alerts saying a doji and a hammer had formed on 11-24-09 or 11-25-09. I went to retrieve the emails I received but the delete cycle bin was emptied and I didn’t have them. I could be confused because I received other email replies comments on those days as well; unless, someone else sent out the emails.
December 1, 2009 at 7:25 am
I’ve stayed long overnight and this morning I noticed a hammer and I’m :) again. I”ll stay in as long as can and follow Mark’s advise to get out
December 1, 2009 at 3:48 pm
By the way Hendrik, I (finally) responded to your EUR/GBP forum post, sorry for the delay
December 1, 2009 at 3:54 pm
EUR/GBP
Mark txs. I posted a DJ remark which is in line with your advise. It’s currently on a support and I’m waiting on a possible break through. Cos I think it can go lower than the support of .0970.
I do appreciate your input :)
December 1, 2009 at 7:34 am
Hallo Hendrik, did you saw a hammer on the hourly graph???
December 1, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Zar I saw it. The body must have been just a touch too big relative to the wick but I’ll figure out exactly the alert service didn’t count it later tonight.
December 1, 2009 at 7:46 am
I think the right time for ISM is 15.00 GMT
December 1, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Knut,
I think so too. I think the 10:00 was for eastern standard time.
December 1, 2009 at 8:52 am
Zar are you there??? Still long?
December 1, 2009 at 9:14 am
Yes Hendrik
I am now out of my Long trade!
Took 65 pips profit!
Thank you Mark!
And you Hendrik :)
R u still in? What is your next setup Hendrik?
December 1, 2009 at 9:39 am
Zar
Good for you… the yield was good.
I’ve closed also. It looks a bit sideways. I’m following the President’s advise and will stay out for a while…
December 1, 2009 at 8:54 am
In line with Mark:
“0848 GMT [Dow Jones] As EUR/USD climbs back over 1.50, UniCredit warns that the pair could continue to be frustrated as long as risk aversion is the theme. Nevertheless, the bank still suggests buying on dips “as long as key thresholds at 1.4845 and 1.4765 hold.” The pair is now at 1.5062. (NEH) “
December 1, 2009 at 8:55 am
Hi, I know this isnt relevant to todays trades however if anyone can help me that would be most appreciated!!! im currently using a platform for trading fx and other products, however i think i can get a better deal elsewhere, and was wondering if anyone could suggest another good, well priced (margin and commission based platform) and good for technical analysis use?? any suggestions would be of great value!!!
many thanks and enjoy ur days trading
December 1, 2009 at 8:58 am
Mark,
Your post at 5:59am and from the 1h graph I have reach 1.9870 and my question is if you have entered the trade already?
December 1, 2009 at 9:03 am
mark,
time 5:00am – 1 hr
December 1, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Zam,
Are you sure you meant 1.9870 for EUR/USD?
Did you understand Mark’s analysis for today?
December 1, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Zam, not sure about your #’s there (1.9870) but I have not yet entered a trade
December 1, 2009 at 3:50 pm
Mark and Lisa,
Sorry guys, low – 1.4970 at my 1h Eur/Us pair at 5am candlestick. Previous # is wrong .
Im confused with the diffrent time zone. Im not sure which time zone I am using in my demo ibfx MT4 platform.
My location is +8 GMT. I looking at 3 diffrent time zone, my MT4, piphut and my location.
December 1, 2009 at 9:33 am
Thanks Mark for everything although :) my wife was gonna kill me yesterday telling price is dropping, but confidence was my first lesson, plus i had 30pip stop loss strategy below 1.480. Moreover i sold on 1.520 half of my lots, and 1.545 rest of my lots today :). i guess there is a lot to learn and it is not always wining as you mentioned in Money Management.
December 1, 2009 at 9:36 am
Got 93 pips out of yesterdays signal, you’ve got a sixpack from me Mark !
December 1, 2009 at 9:48 am
Upset with myself. There seemed to be selling momentum at 1.4980 so i didnt enter the trade. It started going up and entered at 1.50. Put in a short stoploss at 1.4975 so just hit my stop loss and only went over by 3 pips. Lesson learnt, bigger stop losses and have a little more faith in the support/resistance zones. Missed out on a good trade..
December 1, 2009 at 9:51 am
Mark,
Out of interest, could you explain why you bailed on yesterdays analysis just short of target two. Target three has recently been hit . Presumably, something happened in the candlesticks that led you to believe that your analysis had backfired, or am i missing something here ? Additionally, I found it extremely useful when you posted the point at which you took your trade, the price and your exit point. I understand you are a very busy person, but is there any chance of continuing in this manner for a bit.
Hopefully I’m not asking to much of you.
Thanks in advance
Paul
December 1, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Paul, bailed on the trade yesterday because I generally don’t keep positions (that are generated by this signal) open while I sleep :).
I’ll try and keep posting my trades live
December 1, 2009 at 11:01 am
Will you post any trading idea after ISM release?
December 1, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Yes, in fact… the ISM came in below expected but still above 50 which reaffirms our strategy to buy USD weakness on EUR/USD dips.
December 1, 2009 at 11:50 am
mark. wonderful work i’m just happy with long near 14980/50 ty i belong to a great forum. i never had before ur strategy is very good thanx
December 1, 2009 at 12:12 pm
Mark
Exl call… congrats :)
December 1, 2009 at 12:19 pm
The announcement is at 15.00 GMT
December 1, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Yes, thanks for catching that SmartChick.
December 1, 2009 at 12:29 pm
Mr President gave me the same advise:
1153 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/GBP retains an upside bias and dips toward the 55 DMA at 0.9071 and support line at 0.9062 offer value says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. She favors longs on such dips with a stop at 0.9030, looking for 0.9240 topside. EUR/GBP now at 0.9085. (GST)
Not fast pips as the EUR/USD but steady. I bailed out at 230 pips… it took a bit of time. And you get .17 more on a pip. If your value is $1 pp you get $1.17pp
December 1, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Hi everybody, so mark we are waiting the ISM to be released and after 1 hour or 2 we will have new technical analysis for today?
December 1, 2009 at 1:05 pm
I think the idea is to wait for it to come back down to 1.4980 then buy.
December 1, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Thanks Markus
December 1, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Hi
During my last week in Euro currency loss, I too.
If you give me a good signal as I can of my loss can reduce
Thank you all
December 1, 2009 at 1:28 pm
Good morning everyone:) It looks like I missed all the fun. Are we waiting till it comes back down to place our longs or did I miss out today.
December 1, 2009 at 1:43 pm
No Mattd365, we are all waiting for a good dip, is an hour plus before the news event so be careful not be in a hurry
December 1, 2009 at 1:45 pm
i thought we are waiting after ISM to buy it again at 1.480!!
December 1, 2009 at 2:08 pm
1.4980 – 1.4950
1.48 is a bit lower
December 1, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Yes Carlos after ISM, probably by 16:00GMT and not 1.480 rather 1.4980-4950 zone
December 1, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Carlos,
I think that is 1.4980 area that we are waiting for it to dip back down. I noticed on some of your previous comments you left out a digit in your EUR/USD price. For example: you stated earlier you “sold on 1.520″. Which I think this should have been 1.5020. For newbies (like me), that can get confusing seeing the numbers listed that.
December 1, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Pardon me that should be “numbers listed that way.”
December 1, 2009 at 2:54 pm
ohh im sorry lisa about i type very fast but i’m sure i was talking about 1.4980 :) sorry for any inconveniences.
December 1, 2009 at 1:38 pm
The pair has already risen a 120+ pips, wow!! hope it will stop going up and pull back
December 1, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Thank you Nnagozie. I woke up this morning to this as well. That’s why I was kinda confused. Thanks for your help.:)
December 1, 2009 at 2:08 pm
Anyone going short??
December 1, 2009 at 2:12 pm
Maybe tonight, lets see.
December 1, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Markus what time Zone are you?
December 1, 2009 at 4:38 pm
Im in Sweden so that would be gmt+1.
December 1, 2009 at 2:36 pm
been scalping short eu all morning, 14 trades and up about 90 pips total, trading small though
December 1, 2009 at 2:56 pm
David, When scalping do you use SL and TP?
December 1, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Yes, but I use an auto trade manager and preset sl tp,and trailing stop, I enter the trade then the manager takes over, its called Quick_Trailing EA, you can google it and get it free
December 1, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Hi David, what technique do you use for scalping? what is your entry?
thank you
December 1, 2009 at 3:22 pm
David, it would be great if you posted that in the forums under “EAs and Custom Indicators” :).
December 1, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Juan, simple, 1min chart, BB set at 50, make sure you have 2 way price action(very important)buy support and sell resistance(swing highs and swing lows) and I normally only use it from 6am till 11 am eastern. if the market is choppy(consolidating) this system will make lots of pips, it will not work in a strong trending market
December 1, 2009 at 3:48 pm
David, I would appreciate if you would put that trading system in the forum too, under “Trading Systems”. The ultimate goal is to build a “database” of different trading styles for people to reference.
Again, thanks in advance.
http://piphut.com/forum/
December 1, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Mark, I will do that, My user name and password does not work, can this be reset? or can You email me a new one? Thanks
December 1, 2009 at 4:07 pm
David, you have to register for the forums separately. You can register here:
http://piphut.com/forum/ucp.php?mode=register
December 1, 2009 at 4:12 pm
Thank for the info. One last question. How many pips do you go for (average)? or does it depend on the market? what is your SL?
You should consider to share the system in the forum. ;)
December 1, 2009 at 4:27 pm
sl=25
tp=40
take 50% off at 7 pips (leaving a runner)
at the same time trailing stop moves to BE
then trailing stop locks in 1 pip as price moves to 8 pips profit
at this point trailing stop follows price in 5 pip increments, I will try to post a screenshot for you later
December 1, 2009 at 4:42 pm
OK, screenshot is in forum under scalping, hope that helps
December 1, 2009 at 2:16 pm
Going short is tempting but trend is still bullish so i am waiting for a couple of hours.
December 1, 2009 at 2:44 pm
RikForm, the Pair has not yet shown any sign to go short. There will be many false signals to go short
December 1, 2009 at 2:21 pm
Mark,
Thanks for the signal yesterday. I closed at +96 pips.
December 1, 2009 at 3:22 pm
nice work Lisa :)
December 1, 2009 at 2:50 pm
I am so tempted to go short as well; however, I just had this conversation yesterday with Mark about being patient and not greedy. Basically, about following the rules and guidance of Piphut because some times when you take a chance against the trend you may win some times but other times you can lose pretty big. I will wait for the report and re-evaluate and then wait for confirmations.
December 1, 2009 at 2:54 pm
Yes Lisa Patience Pays
December 1, 2009 at 2:51 pm
The GBPUSD looks good to short.But it is almost 15:00 GMT
December 1, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Who has an open trade? there will be SL hunting in some few minutes
December 1, 2009 at 3:05 pm
So there seems to be no reaction to the ism report
December 1, 2009 at 3:12 pm
I will still wait till 16:00 GMT
December 1, 2009 at 4:19 pm
Everyone still waiting?
Or r there someone trading??
:)
December 1, 2009 at 4:21 pm
No good dips to buy on yet. Approaching strong resistance at 1.5140…
December 1, 2009 at 4:42 pm
Its not your strategy of the day, but im thinking of going short in that area, what do you think?
December 1, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Mark,
So would you consider a sell at this resistance or still stick to the plan and buy on dips even though there is a good strong resistance at 1.5140?
December 1, 2009 at 4:48 pm
Thanks Lisa, I was just wondering the same thing.:)
December 1, 2009 at 4:56 pm
I will not sell here.
December 1, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Thank you Mark
I will wait
:)
December 1, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Lots of sellers ahead. “I hope”
December 1, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Despite the near shooting star – no red in sight
See chart on forum: General/EUR/USD,
We’ve got a test of 09′s high coming !!
December 1, 2009 at 5:31 pm
Hendrik, you can also post a link directly to your forum post like this:
http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=23
December 1, 2009 at 7:39 pm
Mark
Thanks that would help. I’m a bit stupid… must I “load ” and “save” in order to obtain the link for the post?
Or…?
December 1, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Once you “submit” your post it will give you a message about “you’ve successfully submitted..” and the next line says “view post”. That is the link of your post.
So if you click that link and go to your post, just copy the URL from your browser window.
Or you can right-click the link where it says “view post” and select “copy link location” and then you can paste it anywhere :)
December 1, 2009 at 7:19 pm
Posted another chart Hendrik
December 1, 2009 at 7:22 pm
Hi Lehmann, it helps if you post a link to your post so everyone can quickly jump to it, like this:
http://piphut.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=23
December 1, 2009 at 6:37 pm
Bulls are in full control.. but im short -maybe im stupid :(
December 1, 2009 at 6:42 pm
Forester,
What influenced your decision to go short?
December 1, 2009 at 6:49 pm
maybe i can catch the tops always
December 1, 2009 at 7:15 pm
no move yet then other than sideways.
December 1, 2009 at 10:30 pm
entered short at 1.5086 as it seems the retracement as begun. Target at 1.5050 just above the 50% retracement line. Risky trade though as it goes against the trend… only time will tell if i was right
December 2, 2009 at 1:52 am
Entered short as well 15080 tp1 15050 and run 1 mini lot to 14980 I know it’s a risky trade thought I’LL try it too.