12-10-09
5:14a GMT – Shooting stars on the 30m chart have really been providing solid sell signals for me the past few weeks – have you all noticed the same thing? In general if the star is near resistance and is higher than the 10 or so preceding candles (meaning that it qualifies as an ‘extinction’ candle) it has been a very reliable sell signal. Take a look at the 30m chart below with shooting stars circled in blue:
Of course nearly anything has been a good sell signal this week – the EURUSD has dropped almost 500 pips since December 3rd! That includes our signal from yesterday too – we had a near picture perfect pierce of our resistance at 1.4775 with the tip of a shooting star (10:30 GMT on the 30m charts) that was quickly followed by a nice drop. If you missed the first entry the markets were kind enough to provide a second opportunity to enter above 1.4770 a few hours later on a 13:00 GMT rally. I ended up covering at 1.4700 after my third target at 1.4670 was not reached for +75 pips profit.
On to today – you can view the forex calendar here but we have the GBP and CHF announcing rate decisions (12:00 and 8:30 GMT, respectively), trade balances for the USD and CAD (13:30 GMT) and initial jobless claims for USD (13:30 GMT). The news I’m watching closely is the US initial jobless claims. It was a jobs report last week that sent the USD on its major rally and I believe it will be this report that defines the direction of the pair for the coming days.
Daily Outlook: On the 4-hour chart below we can clearly see that after the strong rising trend support was broken the pair has entered into what appears to be a bearish continuation pattern -(aka a “death spiral”). Technical outlook is therefore extremely bearish in the short-term however we have the big news events mentioned above that could thin out markets and make for some aimless ranging in the morning hours.
Trading Idea: I will stay out of the EURUSD until the news has been announced at 13:30 GMT. Until then there might be some (very short-term) trades worth taking at the top of the 30m channel (shown above) where the last shooting star just touched off of. Also a break below 1.4700 will most likely open way to another challenge of 1.4670 for a quick 30 pips. After news events I will look for a shorting opportunity off of 1.4750 with targets at 1.4715, 1.4675 and 1.4640.
(click to enlarge)
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December 10, 2009 at 08:13
One more shooting star at 0700
December 10, 2009 at 08:14
on the 30M
December 10, 2009 at 09:09
good trade yesterday congrat. waiting for news today short will be the way to go thanx
December 10, 2009 at 09:36
Morning, is that a hanging MAN on 30 min 9:00 AM GMT?
December 10, 2009 at 09:49
Great site.
from a professional view point, is it good to trade during this period, holidays , etc.
December 10, 2009 at 10:40
I would trade only if price is moving up and down, just messing with ya, some pro traders lay low around the Christmas and new year holidays.
December 10, 2009 at 15:18
It all just depends on the setup. I like volatility – but not too much volatility – the price needs to be remotely predictable.
You will probably see more “stand aside” recommendations from me in this end-of-the-year season
December 10, 2009 at 15:40
Yea, somehow i have the same sentiments as Mark.
I’m pretty conservative when it comes to “tight trading” especially when the range is smaller. Coupled with the fact that i also use the Bolinger Bands for judgement, this couple of days “sideways” trading really kept me out of the market.
I would prefer a rather predictable direction rather than using other indicators such as the RSI & MACD for confirmation (of course with candlestick analysis). Any breakout in either direction could cause problems.
December 10, 2009 at 09:59
what if the euro doesn’t bounce back to 1.4775 the what’s next do we short from 1.4700 to 1.4670
December 10, 2009 at 10:15
I think we will have a good sell if we wait. this will go to 149 again to test the former support now resistance on the daily.
December 10, 2009 at 12:03
Lehmann,
What is this 149? Were you talking about 1.4900?
December 10, 2009 at 12:16
sorry about that, yes im talking about the 1.4900.
December 10, 2009 at 10:23
Is anyone here eastern time?
December 10, 2009 at 11:53
Don,
I am also eastern time.
December 10, 2009 at 10:46
macd is such a beautiful tool
December 10, 2009 at 12:01
Hangman on the 30 min chart @1.4745 but everyone must be waiting until after the news.
December 10, 2009 at 12:15
wasnt the US jobless claims report down to 60k last time? (cuz now it says 457k) and thats what made the dollar go up again?
December 10, 2009 at 16:31
There are several different jobs reports. The one that shocked the markets last time was the NFP (non-farm payrolls) that was about ~ -10k instead of ~ -100k.
December 10, 2009 at 16:56
Right! yeah, thats the one i was thinking about.
December 10, 2009 at 13:21
Hi guys
Sorry this news is two hours old (I was out) — if you have seen, just chuck it:
1119 GMT [Dow Jones] The reversal signals on EUR/USD charts generated last week should have a strong influence into year-end, says Barclays Capital. The uptrend is faltering and a deep correction is likely. The bank says trendline support at 1.4675 is holding for now but a break below will target November’s low of 1.4625 with potential toward 1.4450 and even 1.4280. Topside BarCap says consolidation below 1.4845 keeps pressure on the downside. EUR/USD now at 1.4735. (GST)
December 10, 2009 at 13:34
Ok, that was mixed… what do u think bullish or bearish?
December 10, 2009 at 13:35
Good Morning everyone. I hope all is well in Piphut Land. Whats up with the Unem numbers. Wow nice little spike.
December 10, 2009 at 13:43
Is like the news has low impact?
December 10, 2009 at 13:46
By Sarah N. Lynch
OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose more than economists expected last week, the Labor Department said in its weekly report Thursday.
Total claims lasting more than one week, meanwhile, fell.
Initial claims for jobless benefits rose by 17,000 to 474,000 in the week ended Dec. 5. The previous week’s level was unrevised at 457,000.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected an increase of 8,000 initial claims.
An economist at the Labor Department said Thursday that an increase in claims is generally expected during this time of year because it reflects data from the week after Thanksgiving and because construction lay-offs tend to occur in that week.
“Generally…that week sees the biggest percentage increase in initial claims over the year, and this year was no exception,” he said.
Although initial claims rose last week, the four-week moving average, which aims to smooth volatility in the data, still continued to drop. The Labor Department said the four-week moving average fell by 7,750 to 473,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 481,500. That is the lowest figure since September 27, 2008.
Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital, said in an interview Wednesday that despite the predicted increase in claims, she also expected the four-week moving average to continue to decline in a positive sign for the labor market.
“You are still seeing an improving trend,” she said. “You are still experiencing an overall downturn in jobless claims.”
In the Labor Department’s Thursday report, the number of continuing claims–those drawn by workers for more than one week in the week ended Nov. 28 –fell by 303,000 to 5,157,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 5,460,000.
The unemployment rate for workers with unemployment insurance for the week ended Nov. 28 decreased to 3.9%, a 0.2 percentage point decline from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 4.1%.
The largest increase in initial claims for the week ended Nov. 28 was in Wisconsin due to layoffs in the construction, service and manufacturing sectors. The largest decrease in initial claims occurred in California.
December 10, 2009 at 13:54
Anyone catch that wave ?
December 10, 2009 at 14:01
Yes, but not much of a wave.
December 10, 2009 at 14:07
30 pips at 1000 GBP per pip is not to be sneezed at
December 10, 2009 at 14:41
Sneeze my way please!!!
December 10, 2009 at 13:59
LoL these two currencies are in a serious battle Euro 1.4760 is key
December 10, 2009 at 14:04
This is domestic violence at it’s best — I’m going to have a cold one.
And yes, I’m going to have one on all you ……….
December 10, 2009 at 14:06
yea me to i’ve been in this trade since last night but im waiting for the shooting star to collect more
December 10, 2009 at 14:11
Don,
Where did you get in your trade last night?
December 10, 2009 at 14:06
Lol anyone seen Mak this morning
December 10, 2009 at 14:10
Lol anyone seen Mark this morning!!
December 10, 2009 at 14:12
Remember he did say he was “snowed under” haha!!!
December 10, 2009 at 14:14
maybe his out shoveling snow or wrestling yeti’s :/
December 10, 2009 at 16:34
Finally out from all that snow! News has passed, lets see how the markets go in the next hour or two…
December 10, 2009 at 14:14
how many hours after the news are we to wait?
December 10, 2009 at 14:19
Well Mark said he would look for shorting opurtunity at 1.4750 And thats about where we are now. So waiting for a short signal i guess.
December 10, 2009 at 14:20
great making sure
December 10, 2009 at 14:32
Hey Don, Did you catch the up-ward swing from 1.4700
December 10, 2009 at 14:39
Seen the shooting stars forming on the 30min @ 15:00 and jumped in. Hope it wasn’t too soon. :(
December 10, 2009 at 14:43
Have you got your boots on Ed? Then lets ride ………
December 10, 2009 at 15:07
No boots here Hendrik. Just a pair of sandles. I live in Goa, India. Looks like the trade is going are way though! :D
December 10, 2009 at 14:44
gmt? you mean the candle taking shape now?
December 10, 2009 at 15:01
No the candle from the last half hour. Can’t find the time settings on the chart I am looking at.
December 10, 2009 at 15:01
It appears you are in good shape
December 10, 2009 at 15:58
Yeah. Just wish my internet connect was in good shape. Maybe I need to upgrade from my cell phone/blue tooth to the laptop setup? :0)
December 10, 2009 at 14:42
yea now im catching the downtrend how about you
December 10, 2009 at 14:47
The candle should be complete in about 13 minutes. Let see if it makes a shooting star
December 10, 2009 at 14:51
ahh I got in to soon but i will still see profit so it doesnt bother me that much!!! But first we must do the euro and usd juggle sahh hope its not to long Im setting up the sl and tp target.
December 10, 2009 at 14:55
I don’t know if you did Don.. It starting to look good for you..
December 10, 2009 at 14:53
The Aussie seams to be weak as well, I think????
December 10, 2009 at 14:56
waiting the price to breakout the channel…
December 10, 2009 at 14:57
1417 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD touched its intraday high, at 1.4760 from 1.4725 late Wed, as better-than-expected US trade data brings modest risk appetite to markets, boosting higher-yielding currencies. The pair still is trading within recent ranges, as lingering worries over sovereign credit of some euro zone members keeps EUR gains tempered versus other higher-yielding currencies.(BMD)
December 10, 2009 at 15:00
i think there is shooting star at H1…… :)
December 10, 2009 at 15:02
Dude your right! Sorry, I just wanted to say dude.
December 10, 2009 at 15:11
not a big deal..thats not my real name….i come from eastern…. :) nice to meet u…
December 10, 2009 at 15:23
Nice to meet you to, I saw your screen name and think it’s cool.
December 10, 2009 at 15:03
I went in a few seconds before it closed, couldnt wait. Patience is hard to learn, hehe
December 10, 2009 at 15:03
1.4735 is a resistance stage
December 10, 2009 at 15:07
yes matt now we have to jugle with resistance how I love setting up my sl and tp
December 10, 2009 at 15:07
ok it just broke cool
December 10, 2009 at 15:12
It’s also below the 100 ema, If that has any value to you. It should break down soon. Hopefully :)
December 10, 2009 at 15:12
price broke pass 1.4730 already… setting TP at 40 pips now
December 10, 2009 at 15:14
Hey Mark are you done shoveling snow yet:) hehehehe.
December 10, 2009 at 15:14
Im with you the whole way Matt we need to do this more often so we can be very profitable uptrends and downtrends Also I love my Pip hut familiy. I observed the comments for a while before I made my own comments
December 10, 2009 at 15:17
drop past first target 1.4715 already!
December 10, 2009 at 15:22
wow, its pushing hard. wonder why
December 10, 2009 at 15:22
use the macd signal to see when the bottom is near
December 10, 2009 at 15:24
wow…it move faster than i imagine….i’m such a newbie…haha
December 10, 2009 at 15:24
closed out at 1.46099 macd looked suspicious
December 10, 2009 at 15:26
hey matt the internet is nothing but an adventure you can do anything you want on it
December 10, 2009 at 15:29
I know, it’s cool yuh. I couldn’t imagine my life with out it.
December 10, 2009 at 15:35
I’m just about done for the day caught the uptrend with 33 pips and just caught the downtrend for 50 pips’s. Next time I’m on is at the asia session about 2 or 3 a.m eastern so if you fire up your pc expect to see me commenting your’re not alone out there I’m dedicated to pip hut!!! International schedule Im a pip star baby!!!
December 10, 2009 at 15:37
Alright Don, Have a great night talk to ya in the morning.
December 10, 2009 at 15:40
There may be a break later but I won’t chance it forex rule dont get greedy. I’m thankful I have a networking site for forex if MARK reads this thanks your a genious. I could not have came off the demo account without your site it means alot!!! Lol Touchy moment alright Pip Stars remember our schedule is international. And global profit is the best profit.
December 10, 2009 at 15:42
Matt I will be on for the asia session for me that’s between 2 and 3 a.m. to eastern time. So we can go over the signal for the day and get some assurance Pip’s up from here everyone else please join if you can.
December 10, 2009 at 16:01
Closed my position on the doji.
December 10, 2009 at 16:04
That Doji is making me nervous too.
December 10, 2009 at 16:06
So far today, the daily candle is an inside day, no telling where it will close. Just a thing to keep an eye on later
December 10, 2009 at 16:16
I think its going up, so i get back in later if i get a chanse, if not i wait some more:/